Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain within the region through
the weekend and into next week. Several weak disturbances will
move along the boundary, resulting in scattered afternoon and
evening rain and thunderstorms through the end of next week.
Slow moving storms could cause isolated flash flooding, with
damaging wind gusts possible each day with the strongest
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms will taper off after sunset this evening and
overnight.

2) Heavy rainfall under the heaviest storms could produce localized
flash flooding.

3) Expect more of the same tomorrow, as afternoon storms will
again be expected.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed west of I-77 and
continue to drift east. The Piedmont has stayed mostly dry due to a
lack of forcing to initialize thunderstorms. North of I-64, storms
are more widespread, due to being closer to the front stalled to the
north. While severe weather is not expected, an isolated damaging
wind gust will be possible for the next few hours until diurnal
heating is lost and the storms begin to dissipate. Quiet weather
returns overnight with winds remaining mostly calm. This will allow
patchy fog to form Saturday morning, especially west of the Blue
Ridge where rainfall fell. A similar day is expected tomorrow,
though rain coverage is expected to increase, due to an upper-level
shortwave trough approaching the area, which will enhance lift.
Adjusted PoPs to account for current storms on radar, and slightly
increased the dewpoints to match observations. Otherwise, the
previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...

As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

A stalled frontal boundary is currently situated across northern
Virginia. A very warm and moist airmass is fully in place across
the region as southerly flow continues to increase. With lack
of any substantial shear, mainly expecting sub-severe slow
moving storms capable of marginally strong gusts and heavy
rainfall rates. As a result of the slow storm motions and high
ambient moisture, localized flooding will be possible due to
efficient rainfall rates.

Thunderstorms will gradually taper off around sunset and showers
and a few heavier downpours may continue through midnight. Areas
of fog will develop early Saturday.

Mostly cloudy start to Saturday, but should see breaks of sun by
late morning and into early afternoon. This should be sufficient
enough to result in CAPE values to climb in excess of 2000 J/kg
by the afternoon. Upper wave moving east from Kentucky will
provide better forcing, thus expecting slightly better coverage
of storms, along with the potential for a few stronger storms
through Saturday afternoon. Once again, main threat from storms
will be damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period.

A stalled boundary/lee trough looks to remain across the area with
added forcing from an upper shortwave approaching from the west for
Sunday. These mechanisms in an amply moist airmass will allow for
pretty widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Very high
PWATs of near 1.75 to 2+ inches in place will support very efficient
precip producers and aided downdrafts with hydrometeor loading.
Localized flooding looks to be the primary threat with convection.

We lose some of the upper wave energy come Monday though maintain a
very moist column. Coverage may not be quite as widespread as Sunday
but the continued threat of showers and storms with locally heavy
rain and isolated flooding remains.

Temps look to have a limited diurnal range with near to below normal
highs and above normal lows given the moist environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Precipitation chances continue daily.

CWA remains under broad SW flow aloft and a continued moist airmass
through midweek without much of any main feature moving through
other than some possible weak perturbations along the flow. This
will mean rounds of scattered convection each day with coverage
mainly increasing from diurnal heating unless any aforementioned
upper disturbance can focus pockets of enhanced forcing during other
times of the days. By later Thursday into Friday some guidance is
pegging in on an upper longwave trough and translated sfc cold
frontal passage though there are timing and strength discrepancies.

Wed and Thu high temps look to be the warmest with areas in the
Piedmont potentially hitting the 90 deg mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are currently at all terminals this evening, despite
scattered storms across the area. Storms will continue to be
possible through around 04z area-wide as they dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Any showers/storms will briefly reduce
flight conditions to at least MVFR. Once the storms dissipate
overnight, VFR conditions return for a brief time as calm winds will
allow patchy fog to form, particularly for LWB, though all terminals
will see some reduction in VSBY between 06-13z. LWB will likely fall
to LIFR due to dense fog between 07-13z, with VSBY around 1/4 mile.
All terminals return to VFR conditions after 13z Saturday and remain
there through midday. Scattered storms are once again expected to
form during the afternoon, with more coverage expected, which will
cause sub-VFR conditions to occur when they impact a terminal. Winds
remain light, though any storms could bring brief gusty winds. Skies
are expected to be broken to overcast for Saturday into Saturday
night. Storms will again begin to dissipate after sunset, with a
repeat into the overnight hours with VFR conditions before patchy
fog develops early morning on Sunday.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sunday will again see scattered to widespread showers/storms, mainly
during the afternoon, as an upper-level trough moves over the area.
When impacted by storms, terminals will drop to sub-VFR flight
conditions until they pass. After sunset, storms will weaken and
eventually dissipate overnight, with VFR conditions across most
areas. Morning fog will be possible each day into early next week,
as light winds with high moisture content will likely bring some
terminals down to IFR/LIFR conditions. The pattern remains in place
through midweek, with afternoon storm chances each day bringing sub-
VFR conditions when over any terminal.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ046-047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG/JCB
NEAR TERM...BMG/JCB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VAZ046-047-141815-
Appomattox-Buckingham-
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms through next week.
Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead to
localized flooding. This is especially true Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-045-059-WVZ507-508-141815-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-
Charlotte-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing
heavy rain, this may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms through next week.
Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead to
localized flooding. This is especially true Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022-032-033-043-044-058-WVZ042>044-
141815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Halifax-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
206 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing
heavy rain, this may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a daily chance of thunderstorms through next week.
Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead to
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

WVZ508-131945-
Western Greenbrier WV-
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL GREENBRIER COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leonard, or 8 miles southeast of Richwood. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leonard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8037 3822 8036 3808 8036 3806 8039
      3803 8043 3815 8061 3827 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 128DEG 1KT 3814 8041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
626 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VAZ024-132330-
Rockbridge VA-
626 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockbridge Baths, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen...
Rockbridge Baths...
Fairfield...
Bells Valley...
and Brownsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 7922 3784 7932 3795 7955 3801 7953
      3803 7951 3804 7952 3805 7952 3806 7950
      3808 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 276DEG 6KT 3797 7940

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

NCZ003-019-140045-
Surry NC-Wilkes NC-
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SURRY AND
NORTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 818 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roaring Gap, or near Traphill, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elkin...
Traphill...
Mountain Park...
Stone Mountain State Park...
Pleasant Hill...
State Road...
and Benham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8109 3641 8106 3641 8104 3639 8104
      3638 8103 3637 8098 3639 8098 3641 8096
      3644 8097 3644 8079 3624 8085 3624 8087
      3623 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 290DEG 11KT 3638 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RS