Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
538 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms are possible into early tonight, mainly across
SE OH, NE KY, and the western lowlands of WV. Stormy conditions continue
through the week as multiple disturbances affect the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 520 PM Monday...

Isolated to scattered (garden variety) showers/storms have
developed this afternoon across the CWA amid modest buoyancy and
weak forcing. Further west, activity has blossomed significantly
over the last hour or two in advance of a shortwave trough amid
increased mid-level flow of ~35-45kts per KILN and KLVX VAD
Wind Profiles. This activity should continue to progressively
shift eastward, moving into the western portion of the CWA
within the next hour or two. The primary threat continues to be
strong to damaging wind gusts, along with heavy downpours.
Given current translational velocity of ~35-45kts, wind gusts
of 40-50 mph are currently common along this line, with
localized gusts up to 60 mph or slightly higher given any
bowing features / line surges. The current expectation is for
this activity to hold together into at least the western portion
of the CWA, and then gradually weaken further east given some
remnant cold pools from earlier activity combined with loss of
daytime heating. Given some turning with height, a brief spinup
is not out of the question. Additionally, a highly localized
high water issue or two remains possible given any training of
storms. Have modified PoPs over the next few hours to represent
the latest trends.

As of 125 PM Monday...

The near term period will continue to be active, with a moist
southwesterly flow in place, and multiple waves traversing the
region, helping to kick off rounds of showers and storms. Bulk of
activity still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours, and
across SE OH, NE KY and the Mid-Ohio Valley region, however,
models are indicating another wave crossing in the
overnight Monday/early morning hours on Tuesday for another
round of activity. Storms will contain brief heavy downpours as
PW values surge well above seasonal norms. Isolated strong to
severe storms will also be possible on Monday, with ample
instability and shear on the order of 30-40 kts. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard with any convection on Monday.
Tuesday will continue to be active across the area as additional
shortwaves continue to traverse the area. An isolated strong to
severe storm will also be possible on Tuesday, although chances
look to be somewhat low at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday look to continue to be very active across the
area as low pressure across central U.S. phases with a low over the
Great Lakes region, eventually carving out a trough to our west.
Pieces of energy moving northeast through the region will keep a
continuation of the showery/stormy weather going, with some much
needed rain for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

The extended period continues to remain rather uncertain, with day
to day variations in the overall pattern seen between each
subsequent model run. However, overall consensus is for the upper
trough to push east of the area, with somewhat drier weather taking
hold for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area during the
TAF period, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and strong gusty
winds in vicinity of storms. Bulk of activity is expected
generally occur 20Z Monday through 03Z Tuesday, with the
potential for a resurgence in activity 08Z through 15Z Tuesday.

Outside of convection this afternoon and evening, mainly VFR
conditions are expected through 04Z Tuesday, when widespread
MVFR and local IFR conditions are expected to take hold in low
ceilings, along with the potential resurgence in thunderstorm
activity 08Z through 15Z Tuesday which will also lead to flight
restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection this afternoon and
evening may vary from forecast. More widespread IFR conditions
may occur overnight and early Tuesday than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL