Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1022 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system brings significant flooding through today.
Snow to end the event. Turning very cold next week with a
possible snow event mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1011 AM Sunday...

Radar and gauges rainfall estimates indicate 2 to 4 inches have
fallen during the last 24 hours across southern WV and southwest VA.
This rainfall, together with saturated terrain, have produced
extensive and catastrophic flooding issues across portions of the
southern coalfields of WV and across southwest VA as of this
morning. Please, continue to follow directions from the emergency
managers and first responders. Do not cross flooded roads, as you
and your vehicle may be sweep away by flood currents.

Strengthening low pressure center exits north northeast of the
area today, with a cold front pushing the last batch of moderate
to heavy rainfall into the central and northern mountains this
morning. Radar imagery shows a lull in precipitation behind the
cold front this morning. However, water levels of rivers and
creeks will continue to rise above flood stage and continue high
through at least Monday.

Much colder air behind the front will produce a non-diurnal
temperature trend, with temperatures dropping during the
afternoon to sub-freezing levels areawide. This will allow for
wrap around snow showers entering SE OH at the moment of
writing. This activity will spread east across most of the area
through tonight. Meanwhile, quick burst of snow accompanied by
strong gusty winds may produce hazardous driving conditions
through this evening. Be prepared for rapid deterioration in
visibility and slippery roads as temperatures drops below
freezing by later this afternoon and evening. Therefore, Winter
Weather Advisory was issued to include SE OH, NE KY and most of
the WV lowlands through 7 PM.

North to northwest flow will keep lingering upslope snow
showers across the northeast mountains through Monday morning.
Although snowfall accumulations across the lowlands should
remain from a trace to under one inch, 5 to 8 inches are still
anticipated across the northeast counties of WV, and up to 11
inches across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains
through Monday morning. Therefore, continue with Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather advisories for these zones until
Monday morning.

A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the higher
elevations of our northeast mountains from midnight to 1 PM
MOnday. Expect very cold wind chills as low as 17 below. A Wind
Advisory remains also in effect for the higher elevations for
winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

As of 630 AM Sunday...

The forecast is on track and only had to adjust wind speed
slightly higher than what was already in the forecast.

As of 430 AM Sunday...

Added in Nicholas County and southeast Fayette County to the
Winter Weather Advisories as the new totals for them increased
to above criteria.

As of 250 AM Sunday...

Frontal passage moves through this early to mid morning and
by late morning it should exit toward the east across our
mountains. With it another blast of rain which may get higher
than our QPF since any parts of the broken line coming in could
drop an inch of rain or more, easily. Behind the front we have
more precipitation, but it will be lighter in nature and turn
to snow by 10am, getting into our southeast Ohio counties first.

As the colder air filters in, widespread chances of snow will
be possible across the entire area with the bulk of
accumulations confined to the northeast mountains where up to
11 inches are possible along the peaks and ridges in isolated
locations. With windy conditions behind the front lasting
through this period, there will be possible blowing snow which
can cause reductions to visibility in the form of white out
conditions, however should be temporary. Even though this is
possible, not think it will be the entire story, especially
with sleet mixed in with the snow at times, therefore held off
on raising the warning to a blizzard warning for now. A wind
advisory will remain in effect as well to account for the strong
winds lasting through this period into Monday.

Temperatures will be able to get in the low 50's across much
of the area except for the mountains and southeast Ohio and
maybe northeast Kentucky who will be just below starting off the
morning then temperatures will take a plunge as the day goes
by. By the afternoon, the entire area should be below freezing
and by nightfall low 20s, with 10s in the mountains. The chances
of precipitation taper off by the night and into the overnight
where chances will only be confined to the northeast mountains
into Monday morning.

Total snow amounts equate to little to none across our Kentucky
counties and into West Virginia with small amounts, up to 1
inch, across the lowlands, and 5 to 8 inches across our advisory
counties and then again up to 11 inches in the northeast
mountains highest elevations. Some locations may not get any
accumulations, but this would be a short list. There is
potential to see some sort of accumulating snow just about
anywhere and with the cold temperatures coming any amounts will
likely not melt, therefore chances of slick spots overnight may
not be an issue.

With these cold temperatures a cold weather advisory has also
been issued for the northeast mountains for midnight tonight
through Monday morning. Temperatures down to -17 degrees under
windy and cold conditions will be possible for this location.
Winds gust up to 55mph are still anticipated during this time
range. This period ends with lingering snow showers in the
northeast mountains with with windy conditions area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 AM Sunday...

Heavy snow slacks off in the mountains Monday morning with some
upslope showers continuing. A few additional light accumulations
up to a couple tenths of an inch are possible through the
morning. The winter weather headlines go until 10 AM Monday
morning across the northeastern portions of our forecast area.
There may be some instances of patchy blowing snow across the
higher elevations of the mountains as gusty winds continue.

The 540 line drops into our area on Monday, well to our south by
Monday night behind Sunday's cold front. Temperatures will be
very cold during the day with highs in the lower 30s and 20s
across the area. Monday night's lows will be frigid as teens
will be observed with single digits in the mountains. WNW winds
will remain gusty through Monday allowing for bitter wind chills
across the higher elevations of the mountains. That said, a cold
weather product is in the works for the higher elevations into
Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 AM Sunday...

Tuesday will be cold and dry under the influence of a Canadian
high pressure filtering in from our northwest. High temperatures
will be in the lower 30s and 20s across the area with locations
like Snowshoe struggling to get out of the teens. There appears
to be enough of a gradient that NW winds could be breezy across
the higher terrain, but elsewhere winds look to be light.

Watching this next system that will arrive mid week to bring
accumulating snow to the area. A low over the northern plains
drops south and interacts with a disturbance to our southwest.
Soundings look decent for snowfall across the area with moisture
profiles in the DGZ. Models are in agreement for the most part
of a general 2-4" across the area; higher amounts across
southern WV and SWVA and lower amounts farther north. The
mountains could see locally higher amounts of course.

Snow showers will taper off and become skewed to the mountains
Thursday afternoon, but upslope/lake enhanced snow showers will
continue across the mountains and possibly portions of the
lowlands Thursday. Drier weather then moves in Thursday night
through Friday night with a possible disturbance Saturday and
Sunday that could bring a snow or mix to the area, mostly the
mountains.

Cold weather looks to hold through the week with Wednesday and
Thursday being the coldest days with highs in the 20s and teens.
Lows each night will drop into the teens and single digits with
Friday morning being the coldest. Models suggest temperatures
may warm some Saturday and Sunday, but overnight lows look very
cold this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Southeasterly winds continue to become elevated for the rest of
the period. There will be a wind shift by the afternoon out of
the west, then northwest shortly thereafter. Gusts up to
25-35KTs are possible at every site with gusty conditions taking
away shear as a factor. CIGs will fall into MVFR and then go
IFR by mid afternoon. The western sites will lift out just above
IFR CIGs first, by late afternoon, and then the eastern sites
by 00Z, but it will remain area-wide MVFR for the duration. The
rain will be over by this time frame as well, but sites will
endure some snow showers in the late afternoon and evening with
EKN and possibly BKW into the night. Visibility restrictions
will start to improve by late afternoon, but will persist at
EKN and BKW under snow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EST 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    L    L    M    L    L    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible once again late this weekend and next
week in snow, especially across the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-515>517.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ039-040-
     518>521-525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ522-523-526.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ523-526.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
     for WVZ523-526.
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VAZ003-
     004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

WVZ523-526-171545-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Storm Warning.
   Cold Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Storm Warning.
   Cold Weather Advisory.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ522-171545-
Southeast Webster-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ516-171545-
Southeast Raleigh-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ524-171545-
Southeast Pocahontas-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ039-040-518>521-525-171545-
Upshur-Barbour-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Northwest Randolph-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast,
northern and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ032-171545-
Taylor-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031-033-034-515-517-171545-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-
1033 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central, northern,
southeast, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snow is possible around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1107 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

WVZ015-026-034-515>520-161645-
Wyoming WV-Southeast Nicholas WV-Northwest Raleigh WV-
Southeast Raleigh WV-Boone WV-Kanawha WV-Southeast Fayette WV-
Northwest Nicholas WV-Northwest Fayette WV-
1107 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...STRONG GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KANAWHA...RALEIGH...CENTRAL WYOMING...FAYETTE AND
EASTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EST...

At 1106 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong gusty showers
along a line extending from near South Charleston to near Pineville.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thurmond, Pax, Glasgow, Lester, Stickney, Drennan, Rhodell, Piney
View, Racine, Summersville, Ansted, Coal City, Pratt, Montgomery,
Canvas, Prosperity, Burnwell, Mullens, Bolt, and Arnett.

This includes the following highways...
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 31 and 92.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 120 and 133.
 Route 19 between mile markers 1 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 8153 3794 8155 3793 8166 3827 8172
      3830 8124 3826 8123 3831 8114 3833 8072
      3810 8083 3810 8088 3808 8089 3805 8085
      3767 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 290DEG 55KT 3827 8169 3757 8164

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1110 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 8 WSW Marmet            38.18N 81.70W
02/16/2025                   Boone              WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down into a building along Ashford
            Nellis Rd.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1112 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE West Logan         37.87N 81.99W
02/16/2025                   Logan              WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking both lanes of Peach Creek
            Bridge.

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1113 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 SSW Marmet            38.16N 81.64W
02/16/2025                   Boone              WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down along Short Creek Rd.

&&

JP