Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Charleston, WV

606 
WWUS81 KRLX 222351
RFWRLX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025


VAZ003-004-230100-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250323T0000Z/
Dickenson-Buchanan-
751 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ...

Winds are slowly diminishing and relative humidity values are 
slowly increasing; therefore, the Red Flag Warning will expire at
8 PM. However, abnormally dry and breezy conditions can still 
lead to fire ignition and spread, so please continue to use 
caution.

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy with rain chances for northern areas through this evening.
Fire weather concerns again this afternoon. Cold front brings
additional rounds of showers late Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 136 PM Saturday...

A brief surface high pressure builds over the area tonight,
providing dry weather conditions. A reinforcing but weak cold front
moves south across the area this evening without any precipitation.
Drier airmass behind the front will provide clear skies tonight,
allowing radiational cooling to drop temperatures below freezing for
the most part, and few degrees above freezing across the southern
portions of WV, SW VA and NE KY.

Dry weather conditions will last through Sunday morning before the
arrival of a warm front. This warm front will spread periods of rain
under strengthening southwest flow Saturday afternoon and evening.
Model consensus suggests onset of precipitation reaching SE Ohio
around 18Z, then spreading east northeast ahead of an approaching
cold front. This cold front should be east of the Appalachians by 8
AM Monday morning. WPC probabilistic forecast suggests 0.25 to 0.50
inches of rain will be possible with this system.

Under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft (40-50 knots) expect
strong WAA, taking Sunday's afternoon temperatures into the mid 60s
across NE KY, SW VA and central and southern WV, ranging into the
mid to lower 50s elsewhere. Went with the NBM 75 percentile for MaxT
and with NBM 25 percentile for dewpoints for Sunday afternoon. This
combination provides relative humidity values into the mid to lower
20s at some spots. These ingredients may pose an elevated threat for
fire danger at some areas. A special weather statement may be
required on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Much needed, albeit mainly light rainfall expected Sunday night

* Dry and breezy Monday, recent rainfall and beginning of green-up
  will take edge of fire weather concerns

A doubled barreled mature surface low transiting the Upper Great
Lakes Sunday night will yield mainly light precipitation in the warm
sector Sunday evening with a modest uptick in intensity in showers
with associated cold frontal passage late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Overall rain amounts look pretty light, generally a
couple tenths to perhaps half an inch in spots - not exactly a fire
season ender, but will help with moistening of fuels and assist with
the ongoing early green-up. Instability looks to be meager at best,
and largely confined below the M10C isotherm, so will not code any
thunder chances in the short term forecast.

A much drier airmass settles in in the wake of cold frontal passage
with dew points dropping into the lower 20s. Continued southwesterly
flow won't yield much of a colder airmass to go along with the
dryness, and coupled with late March Sun angle should allow
afternoon highs across the lower elevations to rise into the lower
to mid 60. This will yield afternoon relative humidity values down
in the 20s, perhaps even some high teens in spots amid winds gusting
30 to 40 mph. The recent light rainfall and on-going green-up should
somewhat help to mitigate more substantial fire weather concerns,
but would expect any fine dead fuels to rapidly become crispy and
fine live fuels to dry rapidly into the afternoon. Will need to
consult with land management agencies on the fuel status Monday, but
certainly weather parameters would be there for at least a fire
danger statement.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

The long term forecast period will be characterized by a persistent
low amplitude long wave trough over the Great Lakes early in the
week, slowly shifting to the St Lawrence Valley by the end of the
week. Within this pattern, a clipper type system is expected to
transit the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing a mix
of lower elevation rain and snow with all snow for the higher
elevations. Amounts should be on the light end, generally less than
half of an inch of liquid equivalent. For the lower elevations,
ground temperatures are likely too warm for any significant travel
impacts and even in the mountains snow may have some difficulty
accumulating with air temperatures only near freezing with still
mild ground temperatures. For more elevated surfaces along the
higher ridges, perhaps 1-3 inches of snow would be possible.

A return to dry and breezy conditions is expected for Thursday, and
perhaps even into Friday with additional rain chances arriving
either during the day Friday or Friday night, models have a
generally poor handle on this with ensembles generally clustering on
primarily a northern stream influence or a combined north and south
stream effort.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 136 PM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through the end of period.
The main problem will be the strong gusty winds 25 to 30 knots,
with higher gusts over higher elevations. Expect these winds to
subside towards midnight when winds aloft are expected to subside
considerably.

VFR conditions will continue along with tranquil winds overnight.
Precipitation returns to PKB, HTS and CRW by late Sunday
afternoon and evening, spreading east to affect the rest of
terminals Sunday night into early Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts and directions may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday morning
with showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
546 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

WVZ523-526-231000-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
546 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Increasing winds could gust to 30 to 40 mph or slightly higher on the
higher ridges of the northern WV mountains for much of the day today,
before calming down overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-
033-034-515>520-524-231000-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-
Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Southeast Pocahontas-
546 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central,
northeast, southeast, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Gusty winds and low relative humidity values will cause an elevated
fire danger today. Any fires that do start could spread rapidly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-076-WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032-039-040-521-522-525-231000-
Perry-Morgan-Washington-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Randolph-
546 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central, northeast and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.