Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
801 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and storms prevail through the weekend
amid the ongoing heat wave. Cold frontal passage Tuesday. Brief
high pressure Wednesday. Another cold front crosses Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...

Main change was to update POPs by blending in some NAMNest, as
it seems to have the best handle, though it's not perfect
either. Will likely need to make another update or two this
evening to account for latest trends in the convection. Also
added in 'heavy rain' wording for the weather grids through
midnight, and restricted fog to more valley locations.

As of 135 PM Saturday...

A cold front stalls to our north this evening. An unstable
environment, characterized by PWATs up to 2 inches, SBCAPE exceeding
3,000 J/Kg and poor deep layered shear will support development for
slow-moving afternoon showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Localized water problems may result from repetitive heavy
downpours, or very slow moving storms. Convection may be more active
across the northern portions of our CWA nearby the front, and over
the higher elevations this evening. Some models show few ripples of
vorticity within a zonal flow at H500 passing tonight. SPC maintains
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas through
this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds and heavy
downpours.

There could be a lull in precipitation activity late tonight into
Sunday morning. However, expect less convective activity on Sunday.
A clean zonal flow at H500 will allow for another episode of
convection driven by diurnal heating and ample moisture during the
afternoon and evening hours.

It will remain muggy at night with dewpoints reaching the mid 70s
across the lowlands. Hot temperatures in the lower 90s and available
moisture will provide heat index values in the upper 90s across some
lowland spots on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

The front remains stationary across our north through Sunday night,
and then relocates just northeast of our CWA by Monday. Its vicinity
will enhance diurnal heating convection Monday afternoon and
evening, while a new cold front approaches from the west. Models
have been consistent on the timing of this new cold front, arriving
to SE OH by Tuesday morning. Central guidance increases PoPs to
categorical Monday through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms can be expected. Flooding issues may be a concern.

Sunday and Monday nights will still feel less muggy than previous
night with temperatures in the upper 60s across the lowlands,
ranging into the lower 60s northeast mountains. Hot temperatures
around 90 degrees can be expected Monday afternoon across the
lowlands. However, temperatures will moderate on Tuesday due to
abundant cloudiness, cooling showers and a relatively fresher
airmass behind the cold front. Expect highs in the mid 80s across
the lowlands, ranging into the 60s higher elevations on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure builds Tuesday night and Wednesday providing
drier weather conditions and a return of hot temperatures.

Forecast weather charts show another cold front arriving to our area
Thursday, crossing slowly south into early Friday. Although, it is
still far out, accepted general guidance with slight chance
probability of precipitation for now.

A gradual warm up can be expected Wednesday into the weekend, with
temperatures reaching the lower 90s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...

Some widely scattered clusters of showers and storms are moving
across the area, with a few isolated lone cells noted as well.
Activity should continue but gradually diminish between now and
around 06z, with only some stray activity persisting deeper into
the night. Any heavier showers or storms would drop visibility
to at least MVFR, if not IFR distance.

Otherwise, as we get towards and beyond 06z, patchy fog should
develop, and will be concentrated and most dense in valleys and
where rain fell today. Went with prevailing MVFR visibility for
most terminals excepting BKW, but did take EKN down to IFR for a
spell given recent fog occurrences.

Once fog dissipates tomorrow morning, most of tomorrow looks
like a VFR day broadly speaking, with gentle winds expected. The
exception would be with isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity, which will get more likely as you head towards the
mountains. Did opt for a PROB30 thunderstorm group in the
afternoon and/or early evening for all sites except PKB.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms may
vary from the forecast this evening. Fog coverage and timing
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
and early morning fog, through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...FK/ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-
521>526-290730-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-
Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio, and portions
of central, northeast, northern, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may become strong
to severe and bring strong wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy
rainfall. Localized flooding is possible under slow moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Excessive rainfall within thunderstorms may produce localized
flooding issues from Sunday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515>520-290730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-Mingo-
Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southwest
Virginia, and portions of southeast, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms tonight may bring locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Excessive rainfall within thunderstorms may produce localized
flooding issues from Sunday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
626 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

OHZ066-067-282300-
Morgan OH-Perry OH-
626 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PERRY AND WEST CENTRAL
MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from New Lexington to near Bremen. Movement was
south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Shawnee, Crooksville, Junction City, New Straitsville,
Hemlock, and Rendville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 8197 3956 8225 3956 8226 3959 8226
      3960 8236 3961 8238 3973 8237 3978 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 001DEG 16KT 3972 8217 3968 8239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

OHZ067-075-076-085-290015-
Washington OH-Athens OH-Meigs OH-Morgan OH-
738 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MEIGS...WEST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND ATHENS COUNTIES THROUGH
815 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Glouster to Albany. Movement was southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Glouster, Albany, Chesterhill, Chauncey, Stockport,
Jacksonville, Trimble, Amesville, Stroud Run State Park, Burr Oak
State Park, Bartlett, and The Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3952 8157 3928 8177 3914 8198 3923 8224
      3955 8207 3955 8204 3958 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 329DEG 7KT 3954 8202 3925 8219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

WVZ018-019-029-290015-
Calhoun WV-Ritchie WV-Gilmer WV-
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALHOUN...SOUTH CENTRAL
RITCHIE AND WESTERN GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grantsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glenville, Grantsville, Arnoldsburg, Cedar Creek State Park,
Millstone, Mount Zion, Big Springs, Stumptown, Tanner, Cedarville,
Normantown, Burnt House, and Annamoriah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 8075 3880 8084 3876 8118 3882 8122
      3884 8122 3886 8124 3888 8124 3889 8126
      3890 8125 3891 8126 3907 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 246DEG 21KT 3889 8111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

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