Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Charleston, WV

496 
WGUS71 KRLX 150125
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
925 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

WVC085-150135-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250615T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ritchie WV-
925 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL RITCHIE COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded and the heavy rain has ended. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8112 3923 8104 3923 8093 3917 8086
      3913 8086 3908 8096 3909 8109 3910 8110
      3915 8114

$$

LTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
210 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak flow and weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with weak mid-
level lapse rates will promote slow moving and heavy showers and
thunderstorms through early next week. Localized flooding is
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited mid-level lapse rates sets the
  stage for efficient rainfall production

* Extremely localized water issues are possible tonight, a few
  instances of significant localized flooding are possible

* Better chances for more widespread water issues, some locally
  significant are possible on Sunday into Sunday night

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection

Surface based parcels have become uncapped with isolated to
scattered convection blossoming over much of the region this
afternoon. Steering flow this afternoon is around 20-25 mph from the
southwest, so not expecting heavy precipitation cores to linger over
any given spot and with matching southwesterly flow at the surface
cooling the surface and overturning already weak mid-level lapse
rates should help reduce the risk of substantial training through
mid-afternoon. While the threat will be limited, deep warm cloud
depths, precipitable water values near 1.8 inches and deep skinny
CAPE profiles will be conducive for efficient and heavy rainfall
production. While threat for severe storms with this activity is
low, some localized tree damage would be possible with any erratic
and gusty sub-severe winds near convection.

Better coverage is expected to come late afternoon into this
evening courtesy of more focused forcing associated with a weak
shortwave embedded in the southern stream - similar to
yesterday's activity but with a little less coverage. Storms
associated with this forcing should be fairly progressive and
despite fairly high rainfall rates associated with efficient
deep warm cloud depth warm rain process - not expecting too many
water concerns. Any storms that fire away from the stronger
forcing will have a higher potential to sit over a given spot
and backbuild as steering flow weakens to around 10-15 mph which
could lead to isolated water problems, some potentially locally
significant through tonight before dissipating. At this point,
confidence in any given county experiencing locally significant
issues is not high enough to hoist a flash flood watch for
activity through tonight. Had considered lumping this potential
in with the expected activity on Sunday, but after collaboration
with neighboring offices will forgo this and defer the decision
for Sunday's watch to the midnight shift.

The aforementioned parameters favorable for efficient and heavy
rainfall production will remain in place on Sunday as the upper low
approaches and eventually moves overhead, although instability
will be a little weaker due to substantial cloud cover through
peak heating. With weakening flow associated with the
circulation we will see potential for more persistent heavy rain
over any given spot with any given updraft. We will also see
the light winds shifting around during the day as the upper low
crosses, increasing potential for more pristine sections of the
column to shift over locations that already experienced a bout
of heavy rain. While this will be possible over the entire
forecast area, the most substantial risk appears to be across
the northeast mountains where the nose of a modest belt of
enhanced H850 flow is expected to reside. HREF probability
matched mean 6hr values suggest some localized bullets of 3-5"
of rain across this area within a 12 hour period where 6hr flash
flood guidance ranges from 2.2 to 3 inches. A flash flood watch
will likely become necessary for these areas, perhaps extending
a bit farther out into the lowlands. As mentioned above this
threat will include our bordering forecast areas who are dealing
with potential flooding today and would prefer avoid mixing
messages. To present a unified front as well as to hone in on
the threat with additional guidance, we will defer this issuance
to the midnight shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Unsettled weather pattern continues in the short term period.
Frontal boundary will remain draped across the CWA at the start of
the period/early Monday, with a warm and humid air mass in place.
Boundary should slowly lift north during the day Monday, with
periods of showers and storms continuing, particularly during peak
heating hours, and from weak passing disturbances in the flow.
Plenty of instability on Monday could support an isolated severe
storm, but overall threat is low owing to a lack of decent shear.
However, PWATs on the order of 1.7 to upwards of 2 inches, along
with a relatively light steering flow of around 15 kts or less, will
continue to result in a threat for flash flooding, and headlines may
be needed for this time period particularly depending on how much
coverage/rainfall we receive on Sunday.

On Tuesday, a more potent shortwave will lift northeast through the
area. An increase in southerly flow out ahead of the wave will
result in a renewed surge of moisture to the area, with PWATs
possibly topping 2 inches. Storms should overall move a little
better on Tuesday with a slight uptick in steering flow, however,
will continue to need to monitor the situation, especially if Sunday
and Monday result in widespread areas of rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, additional showers and storms can be
expected on Wednesday during peak heating hours in the warm, humid,
unstable conditions. On Thursday, an upper trough, will push east
through the area, with the frontal boundary that has been located to
our north, finally sweeping through the area. A little early to say
for sure, but severe weather may be possible during this period.
Showery weather continues on Friday behind the departing trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon at all terminals. These will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain which could reduce visibility briefly to IFR.
Storm motion is out of the southwest around 15-20KTs, so any
individual cell will not dwell too long over any given terminal.
Have largely addressed with TEMPO or PROB30 TSRA, but these will
likely need to be modified as convection develops. An additional
round of showers and storms will be be possible during the evening
into the overnight as a weak shortwave arrives from the west.

Terminals that see some locally heavy rain this afternoon and
evening may see some locally dense fog develop in their wake
overnight, but confidence is too low to include any IFR impacts at
this time.

Winds generally southwesterly 5-7KTs, except gusty and erratic near
any convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and magnitude of impacts from
convection may vary from the forecast. Locally dense fog
possible overnight where any heavy rain falls.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy overnight dense fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
401 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-150815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
401 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy downpours in thunderstorms could lead to localized flash
flooding today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Localized flash flooding due to heavy rain in thunderstorms remains
a concern through Monday. Areas impacted by multiple rounds of rain
will be most susceptible to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
618 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

OHZ076-WVZ009-142245-
Washington OH-Wood WV-
618 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
WOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marietta, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Williamstown, Boaz, Lower Salem, and Devola.

This includes Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 185
and 186.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 8127 3958 8125 3942 8120 3936 8150
      3948 8157 3960 8132 3959 8130 3959 8128
      3961 8128 3961 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 255DEG 33KT 3945 8145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
628 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

WVZ019-020-030-142245-
Doddridge WV-Ritchie WV-Lewis WV-
628 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL RITCHIE...SOUTHERN
DODDRIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of West Union, or 11 miles east of Harrisville, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pullman, Auburn, New Milton, Smithburg, Blandville, Berea, Avon,
Grove, and Leopold.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 56 and
63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 8062 3918 8056 3918 8059 3917 8059
      3916 8056 3908 8053 3909 8073 3910 8073
      3911 8081 3909 8082 3910 8094 3921 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 255DEG 19KT 3916 8084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
644 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-019-142300-
Washington OH-Ritchie WV-Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
644 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
PLEASANTS...NORTHEASTERN RITCHIE AND WESTERN TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over St. Marys, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Belmont, Newport, Matamoras, Friendly, Maxwell, Schultz,
Arvilla, Point Lookout, Wick, Mountain, Hebron, and New Matamoras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3932 8086 3930 8088 3931 8127 3943 8135
      3954 8100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 258DEG 18KT 3938 8122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
658 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

OHZ066-067-075-142315-
Athens OH-Morgan OH-Perry OH-
658 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...WEST CENTRAL
MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN ATHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 658 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Nelsonville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glouster, Shawnee, Nelsonville, Crooksville, New Straitsville,
Corning, Buchtel, Jacksonville, Murray City, Trimble, Hemlock,
Rendville, and Burr Oak State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 8209 3956 8188 3944 8218 3947 8221
      3947 8217 3948 8217 3955 8216 3956 8216
      3956 8226 3959 8226 3960 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 232DEG 16KT 3951 8226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
701 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

OHZ076-WVZ010-011-019-020-142315-
Washington OH-Doddridge WV-Ritchie WV-Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
701 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS...NORTHEASTERN RITCHIE...NORTH CENTRAL
DODDRIDGE AND CENTRAL TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near St. Marys to near Pennsboro. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Middlebourne, Belmont, Matamoras, Friendly, Alma, Arvilla,
Point Lookout, New Matamoras, Wick, Mountain, Lima, and Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 8107 3940 8062 3932 8092 3938 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 246DEG 21KT 3945 8112 3936 8093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
714 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

WVZ010-011-020-142330-
Doddridge WV-Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
714 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS...NORTH
CENTRAL DODDRIDGE AND TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Middlebourne, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Middlebourne, Friendly, Arvilla, Alma, Point Lookout, Wick, Lima, and
Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 8082 3955 8079 3954 8078 3951 8074
      3947 8071 3947 8064 3941 8061 3936 8089
      3939 8093 3936 8095 3935 8101 3935 8103
      3934 8104 3945 8113 3952 8106 3959 8091
      3958 8089 3960 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 246DEG 19KT 3946 8092

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

01