Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Charleston, WV

541 
WGUS71 KRLX 140309
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1109 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHC053-079-087-140319-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-250514T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gallia OH-Jackson OH-Lawrence OH-
1109 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL GALLIA, SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended, and flood waters have receded. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 8270 3875 8266 3885 8265 3885 8276
      3894 8275 3895 8280 3906 8279 3904 8245
      3868 8247 3873 8270

$$

TRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms at times through Wednesday, especially during the
afternoon/evening hours, courtesy of an upper level low. Briefly
dry Thursday, then more showers/storms later Thursday into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Locally heavy rain this afternoon/evening could result in
  isolated instances of flash flooding.

* Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening.
  Hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards.

A broad upper level low to the west of the region, currently
centered across the central Ohio Valley, will continue to shift
north and east through the near term period. This will result in
continued unsettled weather across the forecast area, with
showers/storms from time to time, primarily focused during the
afternoon/evening with daytime heating. Coverage is anticipated
to decrease significantly tonight, with at least some patchy
fog development given any clearing that occurs. Fog could be
locally dense in spots. Additional shower/storm development is
anticipated Wednesday afternoon/evening, although coverage should
be less widespread than today, with the highest probability for
rain being in/near the higher terrain.

The main concerns for activity today are localized flash
flooding, as well as the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with hail and damaging wind gusts being the main
hazards. A very moist atmosphere and mean low-level flow of ~
5-15 kts has resulted in slow-moving showers and storms across
the area at present, which could lead to isolated flash flooding
issues through this evening. While severe weather is not
expected on Wednesday, a few isolated high water issues once
again remain possible.

High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s across the
lowlands, with 60s across the mountains. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be a few degrees higher than today. Lows tonight
will be in the 50s across much of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1209 PM Tuesday...

An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the middle Ohio Valley
Thursday with the return of very warm weather. High temperatures
will range from the middle to upper 80s across the lowlands.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday night as a
wave of 500-mb vorticity approaches from the west. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over the midwestern
states Thursday afternoon, tracking east into the middle Ohio Valley
overnight. It's unclear whether the thunderstorm complex would hold
together once it approaches the Ohio River. It's possible that
thunderstorms would eventually lose steam as they approach the Ohio
River with unfavorable lapse rates and waning instability. However,
a few models, including the NAM, still show 800-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
available by 06Z Friday. It will be interesting to see what the CAMs
suggest in upcoming runs. The SPC currently has a marginal risk of
severe weather outlooked for this time period though 12Z Friday
morning.

There may be a higher probability of strong to severe thunderstorms
Friday with plenty of instability building throughout the day, steep
low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/kg), and a robust amount of 0-6km shear
(40-50 kts). Highs will range from the middle to upper 80s again
Friday with 60 to perhaps 70 degree dew points. A cold front will
approach late Friday night, and thunderstorms will remain possible
through that time period. The Day 4 SPC outlook currently shows a
15% risk area drawn over central and western Kentucky, just slightly
west of our County Warning Area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will cross east of the region Saturday morning,
hopefully leaving dry and quiet weather in its wake as high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. However, not all models are on board
with this, and some models show slower solutions, keeping the front
stalled over southwest Virginia throughout the weekend. However,
this seems like the less likely possibility.

Saturday will likely still feature lingering activity, especially
during the morning as the front crosses through. We are more
confident that Sunday and Monday should be mostly dry days, but will
keep at least a slight chance of rain in the forecast in case the
less likely model solution pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently progressing
across the forecast area, providing some brief MVFR CIG
restrictions, along with brief IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions. This
trend will continue through the afternoon/evening, with even the
potential for ISO strong thunderstorms that could contain gusty
winds and hail. Showers/storms will diminish in coverage
overnight, with the development of ISO showers/storms once again
towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday afternoon.
MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions are possible later tonight into
Wednesday morning with low stratus and fog, particularly
in/near the higher terrain and across the Mid-Ohio Valley.
Mainly VFR returns by the end of the TAF period.

Light and somewhat variable flow is expected through the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of flight category changes in
showers/storms could vary. Fog coverage overnight may be more
widespread than currently anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
In an active week, IFR conditions are possible under convection
Wednesday afternoon/evening, as well as Thursday night through
Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

WVZ033-034-515>526-141800-
McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
156 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast,
southeast and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts and hail.
Additionally, locally heavy downpours could lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Locally heavy downpours on Wednesday could lead to isolated high
water issues.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ103-105-OHZ085>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-
141800-
Boyd-Lawrence-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
156 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and
portions of central, northern, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The main hazards are damaging wind gusts and hail.
Additionally, locally heavy downpours could lead to isolated high
water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101-102-OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-141800-
Greenup-Carter-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
156 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening could lead to
isolated high water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
657 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flash Flood      6 SSW Junction City     39.64N 82.33W
05/13/2025                   Perry              OH   Trained Spotter

            Water washed forest floor tree debris down
            hillside into pond on property. Also washed
            out a boat dock on the pond, a kayak and a
            trash bin. Water also flooded the road as it
            washed some of the debris down along it.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
700 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

OHZ083-132330-
Jackson OH-
700 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
730 PM EDT...

At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oak Hill, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Oak Hill, and Mabee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 8254 3888 8271 3908 8276 3908 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 179DEG 14KT 3885 8263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

04

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
702 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Flash Flood      Fairplain               38.75N 81.69W
05/13/2025                   Jackson            WV   Public

            Grasslick Run out its banks and flooding
            Homer Smith Road at US Route 21 via social
            media photo.

&&

Webb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
710 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Flash Flood      5 NNW Kenna             38.74N 81.69W
05/13/2025                   Jackson            WV   Trained Spotter

            Grass Lick Creek out of its banks and
            flooding Homer Smith Road. Other streets and
            homes also flooded in the area. 2.63 inches
            rain fell between 515 and 615 PM.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
711 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Rain             5 NNW Kenna             38.74N 81.69W
05/13/2025  M2.63 Inch       Jackson            WV   Trained Spotter

            Fell in one hour.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
716 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

VAZ003-004-132345-
Dickenson VA-Buchanan VA-
716 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DICKENSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Adamson to near Davenport. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Breaks Interstate, John Flannagan Lake,
Clinchco, and Vansant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 8238 3717 8255 3720 8256 3720 8255
      3724 8245 3727 8235 3728 8234 3728 8232
      3730 8231 3732 8228 3726 8193 3711 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 227DEG 21KT 3721 8260 3715 8218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

04