Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1114 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Plan on afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through
  Wednesday, bringing frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds,
  and heavy rain.

* The greatest potential for flooding will take place today and
  Tuesday, with the highest risk for flash flooding over urban areas
  and burn scars such as the Davis and Connor.

* Cooler temperatures early week will rebound back to around average
  by the end of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

No major changes to the forecast from early this morning.

The initially clear skies from this morning are already started to
be peppered with some cumulus this morning. Surface heating is
already putting in the work in combination with our 0.8"
precipitable water from this morning's sounding to fuel shower and
thunderstorm development for the day. Plan on another very active
shower and storm day with storms kicking off as early as 11am and
persisting through the early evening.

A Flood Watch watch is in effect from noon through 9PM to account
for the threat of flash flooding, particularly in burn areas. See
the Flood Watch at www.weather.gov/reno for all the details.
Otherwise, plan on general thunderstorm threats, including
lightning, strong outflow winds of 50+ mph, locally heavy
rainfall, and even hail. Strong outflow winds over dry lake beds
and playas will produce areas of blowing dust with near zero
visibility. If you're out and about today recreating on the lake,
in the mountains or at the playa, be sure you have a way to
receive weather alerts through your phone or check the weather
regularly.

The storm party continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, with Tuesday
being the last potentially big storm day. Plan on widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well before more drying takes place
for Wednesday. Drier, westerly flow for areas north of Highway 50
will limit storms there, but we will still see some development for
areas south of Highway 50 on Wednesday. Thunderstorm potential
really appears to take a dive on Thursday with the lowest chances so
far for the week.

Friday onward becomes a little more muddy with the ensemble clusters
showing an upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This
trough off the coast may drop southward enough into NE CA/NW NV to
promote more dry, southwesterly flow, but the ensembles aren't in
great agreement beyond the existence of the trough. Something to
keep in mind is that we are approaching the beginning of
September (transition season for the models), which means that the
extended forecast can be a little more difficult to surmise.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Sufficient monsoonal moisture along with hot temperatures will
continue to produce widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Plan on brief periods of IFR conditions due to heavy
rain and sudden reductions to visibility.

The best chances and timing for thunderstorms starting today:
-80% at KMMH (11a-12p)
-60-70% at other terminals (12-1p)
-40% at 88NV in the Black Rock Desert (4-5p)

Main threats today with these storms will be heavy rain, small hail,
frequent lightning, and outflow gusts up to 45 kts. Storm activity
is expected to continue Tuesday with similar chances and timing.

-Justin/Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Flood Watch until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>003.

CA...Flood Watch until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
131 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

CAZ071-072-NVZ002-252100-
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties CA-
Greater Lake Tahoe Area CA-Greater Lake Tahoe Area NV-
131 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SIERRA...NEVADA AND SOUTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM PDT...

At 131 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Independence Lake, or 8 miles west of Stampede Reservoir, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stampede Reservoir, Boca Reservoir, Independence Lake, Hobart Mills,
Ca 89 At Nevada-Sierra Co Line, Upper Little Truckee Campground, Boca
Rest Campground, and Logger Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 12034 3955 12043 3963 12016 3941 11998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 265DEG 17KT 3948 12028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

CAZ072-252145-
Greater Lake Tahoe Area CA-
213 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PLACER AND NEVADA COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM PDT...

At 212 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Olympic Valley, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine Meadows, Prosser Creek Reservoir, Tahoe City, Olympic Valley,
Boca Reservoir, Glenshire-Devonshire Cdp, Northstar, Hirschdale,
Truckee, Northstar Ski Area, Granite Flat Campground, Lakeside
Campground, Glenshire-Devonshire, Ca 89 At Placer-Nevada Co Line,
Olympic Valley Ski Area, Dollar Point, Alpine Meadows Campground,
Tahoe State Rec Area Campground, Boca Campground, and Truckee-Tahoe
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 12011 3915 12023 3936 12031 3941 12006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 158DEG 6KT 3922 12021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GG