Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1251 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorm activity increases this afternoon, continuing each
  day through Sunday. Potential impacts include heavy downpours
  and flooding, strong outflows, small hail, and lightning.

* Cooler than normal temperatures expected for the rest of the
  week and the weekend.

* A gradual warming and drying trend returns early next week,
  bringing highs up to near or slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An Aleutian low has taken residence, keeping a troughing pattern
just off the Pacific coast. This is going to be a factor in our
weather through the weekend, but the main feature for today is a
separate low tracking into the central coast of California for
today. The influence of the larger Aleutian low will help to
determine the steering on the California coastal low, which will
be absorbed into the troughing pattern as it migrates northeast
over the Central Valley. What does this mean for the end of the
week into the weekend, and beyond? Let's dig in!

The central California low's position will allow for upper level
flow from the southeast toward the northwest. This upper flow
will allow for slower storm motions(10-25 kts) today, which could
produce slow-moving and training showers that can produce heavy rainfall.
If these showers and storms produce heavy rainfall (0.6-0.9
inches of PWAT can do that here), we could see localized flooding
issues. Main concerns for storm hazard include heavy rainfall,
flooding (especially if storms set up near burn scars), small
hail, gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. The lightning
threat today could include lightning strikes outside of wet cores
that have potential to spark new fire starts. Showers and some
storms also have a bit of staying power into tonight according to
CAMs, although the hazards of lightning and small hail will taper
as we lose daytime heating. Areas of focus will include
northeastern California where chances range 35-65%. Further south,
near the Tahoe Basin and into the US-395 corridor, chances will
be around 25-40%. South of the Tahoe Basin, basically along and
south of US-50 and southward into Mono County, chances will range
35-50%. For the US-95 corridor through Fallon and Yerington,
chances today around 10-15%.

For Friday, similar areas will see increasing chances as the low
tracks inland and has a closer proximity to the Sierra. Chances for
the Reno-Carson City-Minden and Tahoe areas will range 55-65%. The
Sierra will see chances 55-60%, while the Basin and Range will
see shower chances along the US-95 corridor reaching 40-45%. We
will have a better tap into the moisture source, so the potential
for heavy rains and flooding increases likewise. Particularly if
showers produce heavier rains today, antecedent soil moisture
could increase the likelihood of localized areas of saturated
soils that would be more productive in regards to flood potential.
The threat for dry lightning strikes will be more limited in
spatial extent for Friday, primarily found along the southern
Sierra and then the leeside valleys along the Sierra Front, and
northeastward through the Basin and Range up to the Oregon border.

Saturday the threat lingers for showers and storms that can produce
heavy rains, with chances and areas similar to Friday. The
difference here will be the shower activity is beginning to shift
eastward as the main trough begins to pick the inland low up into
the flow. Monday, the trough lingers, but shower chances dwindle
as the main forcing of the low becomes removed from the area.

That pesky, persistent Aleutian low will keep things interesting
as we look to the close of July. Showers are possible along the
Oregon border and also to the east toward the Utah/Nevada border.
Temperatures look to nudge slightly upward, but still hanging around
seasonal averages to close out the month. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* Clouds will continue to build this afternoon as showers and
  storms arrive for today. All terminals will have a 30-50% chance
  for a shower or storm in the vicinity. Chances increase for
  Friday and Saturday, with 40-60% chances for most terminals.
  Lower chances for KNFL of around 10-20% through the weekend.
  Some showers may linger into the overnight tonight, but the
  threat will shift from thunder to mostly rain. Hazards today
  into the weekend may include erratic and gusty outflow winds,
  frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may reduce
  visibility, especially for mountain terrain. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Thunderstorm chances are expected each day through the weekend,
  with widespread coverage today through Saturday. Minimum
  relative humidity appears to increase from 30-40% today to
  50-75% by Saturday. The best chances for dry lightning will be
  Sunday once humidity starts to erode over the leeside valleys
  and Basin and Range. Frequent lightning can be expected each day
  through Saturday. However, with heavy rain expected, this could
  hinder the development of new fires. Regardless, new ignitions
  due to lightning are possible away from rain cores.
  HRICH/Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
301 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

NVZ003>005-242230-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
Northern Washoe County NV-Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area NV-
301 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WASHOE AND SOUTHWESTERN
PERSHING COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM PDT...

At 300 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles east of Pyramid
Lake to 17 miles north of Sutcliffe. Movement was south at 40 to
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pyramid Lake, Nixon, Sutcliffe, Dogskin Mountain, The Needle Rocks,
and Tohakum Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 11927 3993 11990 4027 11977 4021 11931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 007DEG 33KT 4009 11935 4018 11974

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
328 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

NVZ003>005-242315-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
Northern Washoe County NV-Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area NV-
328 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WASHOE AND SOUTHWESTERN
PERSHING COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM PDT...

At 323 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles northeast of
Herlong to 12 miles northeast of Pyramid Lake. Movement was south at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds may increase wave heights rapidly. Gusty winds
         could knock down fences and blow around unsecured objects.
         Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pyramid Lake, Nixon, Sutcliffe, Dogskin Mountain, The Needle Rocks,
and Tohakum Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Pyramid Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 11994 3979 11926 4021 11930 4027 11977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 354DEG 13KT 4023 11990 4014 11934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HR

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