Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

669 
WWUS42 KRAH 211718
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1218 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

NCZ085-086-220300-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.W.0002.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
Scotland-Hoke-
Including the cities of Laurinburg, Camp Mackall, Raeford, and
Wagram
1218 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM 
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 
  4 inches.

* WHERE...Hoke and Scotland Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning 
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ028-043-078-088-089-220300-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0002.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Tarboro, Clinton, Spring Lake, Roseboro,
Princeville, Wilson, Goldsboro, Hope Mills, and Fayetteville
1218 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON 
TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 
  4 inches. Locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Cumberland, Edgecombe, Sampson, Wayne, and Wilson Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday 
  evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ011-026-027-040>042-073>077-083-084-220300-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Angier, Nashville, Raleigh, Dunn, Apex,
Albemarle, Aberdeen, Siler City, Clayton, Wake Forest, Selma,
Erwin, Ellerbe, Buies Creek, Roanoke Rapids, Carthage,
Knightdale, Franklinton, Pittsboro, Southern Pines, Pinehurst,
Troy, Lillington, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Smithfield, Scotland
Neck, Cary, Enfield, Louisburg, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount,
Sanford, and Polkton
1218 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...The southern and eastern Piedmont and northern Coastal 
  Plain of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday 
  evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while 
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken 
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and 
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

AS

569 
WWUS42 KRAH 212004
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
304 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

NCZ028-043-078-085-086-088-089-220615-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0002.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Laurinburg, Tarboro, Raeford, Wagram,
Camp Mackall, Clinton, Spring Lake, Roseboro, Princeville,
Wilson, Goldsboro, Hope Mills, and Fayetteville
304 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 
  4 inches.

* WHERE...A portion of the central and southern Coastal Plain and 
  eastern Sandhills.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday 
  evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the 
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your 
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially 
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is 
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

NCZ011-026-027-040>042-073>077-083-084-220615-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Angier, Nashville, Raleigh, Dunn, Apex,
Albemarle, Aberdeen, Siler City, Clayton, Wake Forest, Selma,
Erwin, Ellerbe, Buies Creek, Roanoke Rapids, Carthage,
Knightdale, Franklinton, Pittsboro, Southern Pines, Pinehurst,
Troy, Lillington, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Smithfield, Scotland
Neck, Cary, Enfield, Louisburg, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount,
Sanford, and Polkton
304 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Southern and eastern Piedmont and portion of the northern 
  Coastal Plain.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday 
  evening and Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will likely be a very tight gradient in 
  snowfall amounts somewhere over the advisory area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while 
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken 
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and 
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

AS

745 
WWUS42 KRAH 220016
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
716 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

NCZ028-043-078-085-086-088-089-221200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Camp Mackall, Roseboro, Fayetteville,
Clinton, Wagram, Hope Mills, Laurinburg, Tarboro, Spring Lake,
Princeville, Goldsboro, Wilson, and Raeford
716 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...A portion of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the 
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your 
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially 
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is 
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-221200-
/O.EXA.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Graham, Chapel Hill, Lexington,
Greensboro, Thomasville, High Point, Asheboro, Hillsborough,
Oxford, Mebane, Henderson, Winston-Salem, Rougemont, Creedmoor,
Kittrell, Burlington, Warrenton, Durham, Norlina, Carrboro, and
Archdale
716 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations a dusting up to one 
  inch, mostly on the SE side of the Triad Region.

* WHERE...A portion of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NCZ011-026-027-040>042-073>077-083-084-221200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Ellerbe, Wadesboro, Cary, Louisburg,
Enfield, Knightdale, Pinehurst, Franklinton, Angier, Clayton,
Albemarle, Lillington, Sanford, Siler City, Smithfield, Polkton,
Nashville, Aberdeen, Southern Pines, Apex, Raleigh, Selma, Troy,
Roanoke Rapids, Dunn, Spring Hope, Carthage, Wake Forest, Buies
Creek, Rocky Mount, Erwin, Pittsboro, Scotland Neck, and
Rockingham
716 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...A portion of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while 
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken 
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and 
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

PWB

697 
WWUS42 KRAH 220645
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-220745-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Including the cities of Kittrell, Warrenton, Chapel Hill,
Hillsborough, Roxboro, Creedmoor, Asheboro, Thomasville,
Archdale, Graham, Mebane, Durham, Lexington, Oxford, Henderson,
Carrboro, Rougemont, Burlington, Winston-Salem, Norlina, High
Point, and Greensboro
145 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Light snow has ended.

$$

NCZ028-043-078-085-086-088-089-221200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Princeville, Raeford, Fayetteville,
Wilson, Clinton, Hope Mills, Wagram, Camp Mackall, Goldsboro,
Roseboro, Tarboro, Spring Lake, and Laurinburg
145 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch.

* WHERE...The Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the 
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your 
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially 
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is 
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

NCZ011-026-027-040>042-073>077-083-084-221200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Ellerbe, Rockingham, Sanford, Albemarle,
Lillington, Troy, Clayton, Buies Creek, Aberdeen, Enfield,
Smithfield, Carthage, Franklinton, Apex, Selma, Nashville,
Roanoke Rapids, Rocky Mount, Knightdale, Wadesboro, Louisburg,
Raleigh, Southern Pines, Spring Hope, Polkton, Wake Forest, Siler
City, Angier, Pinehurst, Dunn, Erwin, Scotland Neck, Pittsboro,
and Cary
145 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Light snow has ended, but hazardous driving conditions are 
  expected through Wednesday morning.

* WHERE...The southern and central Piedmont and northern Coastal 
  Plain of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, are slick 
  and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions for the morning 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road 
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by 
calling 5 1 1. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps 
taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be 
icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

28

642 
WWUS42 KRAH 221134
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
634 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

NCZ028-043-078-085-086-088-089-221245-
/O.EXP.KRAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Princeville, Raeford, Fayetteville,
Wilson, Clinton, Hope Mills, Wagram, Camp Mackall, Goldsboro,
Roseboro, Tarboro, Spring Lake, and Laurinburg
634 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The threat has ended. However, roads, and especially bridges and 
overpasses, will likely remain slick and hazardous through at least 
midday. Plan on slippery road conditions for your morning commute.

$$

NCZ011-026-027-040>042-073>077-083-084-221245-
/O.EXP.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250122T1200Z/
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Including the cities of Ellerbe, Rockingham, Sanford, Albemarle,
Lillington, Troy, Clayton, Buies Creek, Aberdeen, Enfield,
Smithfield, Carthage, Franklinton, Apex, Selma, Nashville,
Roanoke Rapids, Rocky Mount, Knightdale, Wadesboro, Louisburg,
Raleigh, Southern Pines, Spring Hope, Polkton, Wake Forest, Siler
City, Angier, Pinehurst, Dunn, Erwin, Scotland Neck, Pittsboro,
and Cary
634 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

The threat has ended. However, roads, and especially bridges and 
overpasses, will likely remain slick and hazardous through at least 
midday. Plan on slippery road conditions for your morning commute.

$$

28

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
622 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will remain entrenched across the region
through early Thursday. An upper level disturbance will move over
the Southeast states tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing light
snow to the region. Later in the week, a wave of low pressure will
track northeast off the coast of the Carolinas Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 450 AM Tuesday...

* Cold Weather Advisory continues into mid-morning, then again
  tonight into Wed morning for all of central NC

* Winter Weather Advisory expanded for areas along/east of the US-1
  Corridor given recent high-res model trends

Did a quick update to the forecast tonight to add a Winter Weather
Advisory for all areas along/east of US-1 given the increase in QPF
from the HRRR/NEST/ECMWF model guidance. Even if model trends do not
reach 1 inch of snow accumulation, cold ground temps and the evening
commute will make for hazardous impacts. The prior discussion
follows in the next several paragraphs.

Forecast confidence remains on the low end, but there has been a
noticeable north and westward shift of the expected snow shield this
evening to early Wed. Guidance has also trended higher with its QPF
and indicates potential banding that could set up.

On the general specifics, a shortwave trough axis over the Mid MS
valley and southern Plains will track east and over the area this
evening before moving toward the coast Wed morning. The northern
branch of the shortwave trough will track to our north into the Mid-
Atlantic, while a southern stream shortwave tracks into the far SE
US. As has been advertised, an impressive 180-200 kt jet streak will
be oriented SW to NE from NC into Delmarva and off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Central NC to the coast will be under the right entrance
region of this jet streak from roughly this evening into the early
overnight hours of Wed. At the surface, a frontal zone will be well
south of our region as Arctic high pressure over the Midwest and TN
valley slowly shifts into the southern Appalachians by early Wed. A
wave of low pressure is forecast to track from off the coast of
central FL into the southwest Atlantic.

The Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect through 10 am. Clouds
will build in this morning and become overcast ahead of the mid-
level energy. With the cold Arctic airmass still in place with
little sun, we will not warm up much. We went with the colder
guidance for highs, with only upper 20s NW to low to mid 30s in the
Triangle and in the southeast.

The big uncertainty is still how far west the band of snowfall will
develop. There is likely to be a sharp gradient due to the extensive
dry air over the region. Dewpoints are presently in the single
digits to below zero, with little recovery until saturation raises
these closer to web-bulb values. The 00z suite of model guidance has
come in further north and west, as well as with higher QPF, with the
precipitation shield. The NAM and its high-res counterpart, NAM-
NEST, appear the most bullish, with an inch or so along/east of US-1
and upwards of 3 or more inches from Sampson County to the central
Coastal Plain east of I-95. The GFS/GEFS and 03z RAP are not as high
but do show advisory criteria of an inch or more from Cumberland
into the Coastal Plain. The ECMWF remains fairly consistent, but
does show higher totals in the aforementioned areas. The Canadian is
the driest, along with the 00z HREF/HRRR. Most recently, the
HRRR/NEST and NAM continue to be trending further north and westward
with the snow totals, with their 06z runs showing advisory or even
warning criteria along or just east of the Triangle. Given all of
this, it certainly appears the drier solutions are becoming few and
far between. Guidance is likely picking up on a strong 70-80 kt
southwesterly jet at 700 mb. This is tied to the upper-jet and
likely producing strong frontogenetical forcing over our central and
eastern counties that would favor banded snow. Where the band
ultimately sets up is still difficult to discern at this point given
the dry air to its west that will make for a sharp cutoff. Upstream
radar returns in MS/AL, though, do show some nice blossoming of the
precipitation shield and is concerning. Right now, confidence on how
far west the band sets up is too low to introduce advisories as far
west as the US-1 Corridor given the seemingly abrupt change in model
guidance. However, there is enough of a signal and ensemble support
from the HREF/LREF to add Cumberland to Edgecombe into an advisory
for 1 to 1.5 inches of snow. If model trends continue to progress
westward, advisories or even warnings may be additionally issued and
expected amounts will be increased. Interested parties along/east of
US-1 should stay up to date with the forecast as it is likely to
change as the day wears on given this very dynamic situation taking
shape.

Light snow may start as early as the late afternoon in our
southwest, but should become more prevalent after sunset as enough
saturation aloft allows the snowflakes to reach the ground. This is
still a rather quick event, with onset around 6-7 pm and ending
early Wed between 3-5 am. Some gusts may develop overnight with the
pressure gradient between the Arctic high and offshore low. This
along with lows in the lower teens to around 20 will produce wind
chills in Cold Advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM Tuesday...

* Cold Weather Advisory into mid-morning Wed, but remaining cold
  with upper 20s to low to middle 30s for highs. Overnight lows in
  the lower to middle teens under clear skies, light winds, and
  possible fresh snow cover

Westerly zonal flow will take over aloft on Wed, ahead of another
shortwave trough digging into the TN/OH valley region. At the
surface, Arctic high pressure will reside to our north in the
southern Mid-Atlantic, while an offshore frontal zone resides off
the NC coast. We are cold under sunny skies with upper 20s to low to
mid 30s during the afternoon. Clouds will increase toward early Thu,
but most of the night should be clear and calm, supporting very cold
lows in the low to middle teens. No precipitation is expected on Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

* High confidence below to well below normal temperatures will
  continue through Sat, with greatest departures from normal
  expected Thu.

* Another coastal system could result in some brief wintry
  precipitation across the southern and central Coastal Plain
  Thu/Thu night, however confidence in occurrence remains low and no
  accumulation is expected at this time.

Thursday: Aloft, swly flow will prevail over central NC. As a pair
of nrn stream shortwaves swing through the upper MS Valley, OH
Valley, and into the Northeast Thu/Thu night, the parent trough axis
will sharpen west of the Appalachians. At the surface, the ridge
should quickly weaken and retreat out of the region Thu as the
Arctic high moves ewd out over the nrn Atlantic. Meanwhile, an
inverted trough will amplify off the Carolina coast on Thu, with a
low developing off the central FL coast. Model guidance varies wrt
the timing and strength of this low, contributing to the forecast
uncertainty. The NAM is quickest to develop the low and brings it
closest to the NC coast. If the NAM verifies, moisture could get
pulled inland as far as the Coastal Plain and possibly far ern
Piedmont of central NC. There is continued uncertainty wrt
temperatures as the high moves away from the Northeast and cloud
cover increases. For now, expect highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and
lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. Will maintain a slight chance
for some wintry precipitation, albeit with low confidence and no
accumulation, mainly across the srn and cntl Coastal Plain.

Friday onward: Forecast should remain dry through Sat night, with
increasing uncertainty and chances for precipitation thereafter.
Aloft, the parent trough will gradually weaken as it moves ewd
through the eastern US and off the East Coast Fri/Fri night, with
the flow becoming briefly zonal Sat/Sat night. Meanwhile out west, a
nrn stream s/w will drop swd through the Pacific Northwest Fri/Fri
night, then close off as it continues swd through NV/CA Sat and Sun.
The parent low and its embedded shortwaves will move through central
and eastern Canada Sat and Sun. A srn stream disturbance will lift
nwd into and blossoms over the srn Plains/lower MS Valley Sat and
Sun. The medium-range model solutions begin to diverge thereafter.
Eventually the srn stream disturbance should migrate ewd, but
how/when it impacts central NC will depend on the evolution of a nrn
stream s/w expected to move through the upper MS Valley/wrn Great
Lakes Sun/Mon. At the surface, as the low moves away from the
Southeast US coast, high pressure will move ewd through the Deep
South and Southeast Fri/Fri night. The high will sit over the
Southeast US/Carolinas Sat, then weaken and shift ewd on Sun. The
guidance beyond Sun diverges significantly, especially wrt a
potential low pressure system developing over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley. Confidence is low wrt this system and its
impacts, but for now expect primarily liquid precipitation if/where
it occurs, with the cold air chasing it on the back side.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 622 AM Tuesday...

There is high confidence in VFR to start the TAF period. Since the
last TAF issuance, the model guidance has continued to trend further
north and west with a band of snowfall expected to impact the
terminals between ~ 22z Tue and 08z Wed with an upper-level system
moving through. The latest HRRR, NAM-NEST, GFS, and ECMWF have
indicated an increasing probability for light to moderate snow as
far west as GSO. Confidence remains highest that the eastern
terminals of RDU/FAY/RWI are most favored to see IFR or lower
aviation conditions in snow. The highest confidence of prevailing
IFR or even LIFR is at FAY and RWI. The 12z TAFs reflect this
change. As for GSO/INT, confidence was high enough to include
possible MVFR restrictions at GSO. Snow should taper off from west
to west, slowest at FAY/RWI. Some gusts out of the north may reach
18 kt early Wed as the pressure gradient increases.

Outlook: VFR is expected to return Wed morning. A system is forecast
to cross the region Thu into Sat, but confidence on any sub-VFR
restrictions in wintry precipitation is too low at the moment.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 22:
KGSO: 29/2014
KRDU: 27/1970

January 23:
KGSO: 28/1954
KFAY: 30/1970

Record Low Minimum Temperatures:

January 23:
KRDU: 8/1977
KFAY: 9/1970

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kren/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Kren
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
458 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-221000-
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-
Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
458 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Cold Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040-073-074-221000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-
458 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

While uncertainty remains, a period of light snow is possible tonight
that may result in light snow accumulations of one half inch or
less. Any accumulation may result in slick and hazardous travel
conditions due to the very cold air and cold ground temperatures.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Cold Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.