Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will wobble and remain over Kentucky today
and tonight. An upper level disturbance will rotate east around the
upper low across the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic
states this afternoon and evening. The upper low will finally pull
off to the NE across New England mid-week. A surface front will be
over the eastern areas today. It will shift east of the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Monday...

The Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 9am, as all
automated sites were reporting a visibility of at least 1 mile. The
Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Marginal risk of severe
weather this afternoon/evening to a Slight risk to the east of
Raleigh, maintaining a Marginal risk across the central tier of the
forecast area. A diffuse front remains across the eastern portion of
the area, and this will be the focus of any showers and
thunderstorms today. With cooler heights aloft, hail appears to be
the greatest threat, with damaging winds a secondary threat. In most
locations, the morning update increased the chance of precipitation,
and added a small area of likely pops to the north and east of
Raleigh. Previous discussion follows.

As of 651 AM Monday...

Update for Dense Fog Advisory for portions of the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain through 900 AM.

Marginal risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts over northern
and eastern portions of central NC this afternoon and early evening.

The center of the large upper level low was located over western KY
early this morning. A lingering surface boundary was located
essentially around I-95 over the Coastal Plain. Dew points were in
the 40s NW ranging to 60+ along and east of the low level boundary.
A few showers were still going early this morning from near Wilson
to near Louisburg and Roanoke Rapids near the boundary. Water vapor
indicated an upper level short wave over the mid-Mississippi Valley
currently. It is expected to rotate eastward toward the mid-
Atlantic states this afternoon.

CAMS are on board with this feature arriving during heating today
with colder temperatures in place aloft. As temperatures
approach 80 by early afternoon, isolated to widely scattered storms
are expected to develop over the north and east Piedmont and/or
Coastal Plain by early afternoon, then increase in intensity and
spread NE through the afternoon across the NE Piedmont and central
and northern Coastal Plain. There is a marginal risk of large hail
and damaging wind with any of the storms - especially along and east
of the boundary when the activity reaches it's peak generally
between 300 PM and 700 PM. This is where 1000+ j/kg mixed layer CAPE
combined with elongated forecast hodographs are forecast. Some
lingering convection is expected over portions of the Coastal Plain
(esp. north and central areas) through mid evening before mid level
drying arrives from the southwest behind the departing short wave.
Otherwise, partly sunny today and mostly clear to partly cloudy
south to north tonight. Patchy late night fog is possible, mainly
east. Highs today mid 70s NW ranging into the 82-83 range SE. Lows
tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s NW-N ranging through the 50s
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Drier air spreads in as the upper low pulls to our N-NE. Abundant
sunshine expected.

The low level boundary will be forced east as mid/upper level drying
and subsidence arrive with the slow departure of the upper low. This
will mean abundant sunshine and lower dew points (relative humidity)
Tuesday. The chance of showers/storms should be NE of all our
region. Highs will top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With a
westerly flow and dew points lowering into the 40s/lower 50s, it
will feel comfortable for outdoor activity/events. Clear skies
Tuesday night will likely yield lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

The mid/upper low centered over PA/NY early Wednesday will open up
into a wave and eject NE and reach the Canadian Maritimes on
Thursday. Another shortwave will dive SE from Ontario/Quebec on
Thursday, closing off and drifting east across the northern Mid-
Atlantic and New England on Friday and Saturday, as an associated
surface low rides up somewhere along or near the Eastern Seaboard.
Meanwhile another mid/upper low will weaken over the Southern Plains
on Wednesday and Thursday, before drifting SE and reaching the
central Gulf Coast late Friday through the weekend. There will be a
front settled to our south on Wednesday, but it should be relatively
diffuse and very displaced from us by this point. With no upper
forcing to speak of and only weak flow aloft, any shower coverage
should be very limited on Wednesday/Wednesday night. So the forecast
only has a slight chance of showers across the south and west. POPs
increase to the low chance range on Thursday as the aforementioned
northern stream shortwave drops a stronger cold front that
approaches central NC. Models depict potential for weak instability
developing ahead of the front, so have a slight chance of thunder in
the forecast on Thursday. Forecast highs Wednesday and Thursday are
mid-70s to lower-80s, with lows in the mid-50s to lower-60s.

Uncertainty increases from Friday into the weekend, as model
guidance still differs substantially on the timing and placement of
the mid/upper low over the Northeast US and associated cold front.
The GFS and Canadian depict a more progressive/farther east low,
which pushes the cold front through central NC on Thursday night and
dries us out on Friday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, holds back the
low for longer and doesn't have the frontal passage until Friday
night, so it is much wetter for Friday. Given at least half of the
GEFS show precipitation across a portion of central NC, have chance
POPs on Friday, highest across the south, but removed any mention of
likely at this time. Again thunder can't be ruled out. While the
deterministic ECMWF, GFS and CMC all depict a dry weekend with the
front settled well to our south, ensembles continue to be wetter,
and can't ignore the 30-60% of members that still depict some
precipitation. So while forecast POPs are lower than NBM, still have
slight to low chance on Saturday and Sunday, highest in the south.
The temperature forecast from Friday through Sunday is also lower
confidence and depends on frontal placement and timing, but for now
expect slightly cooler than normal conditions with highs in the 70s
and lows in the upper-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 651 AM Monday...

MVFR/IFR fog and/or LIFR cigs will be possible at KRDU/KRWI/KFAY
(highest confidence at KRWI) through around 13z. VFR conditions
will then dominate mid-morning Mon through the end the early
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across northern and eastern portions of central NC this
afternoon.

Outlook: Patchy ground fog will be possible in the far N and E
around daybreak Tue. But otherwise, dry/VFR weather is expected
through at least Wed. Scattered shower and isolated storm chances
are expected in the S (FAY) late Wed and areawide late Thu into Thu
night, but VFR conditions will generally dominant.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Badgett/BSD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1141 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

NCZ008-025-040-041-051630-
Chatham NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
1141 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GRANVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN WAKE...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 PM EDT...

At 1141 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
RDU International, or near Durham, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Creedmoor, Butner, RDU
International, Morrisville, Parkwood, and Gorman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 7867 3575 7881 3578 7902 3588 7901
      3617 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 189DEG 15KT 3587 7890

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Green

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