Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front and low pressure will move through the
region today and tonight. Canadian high pressure will bring
significantly colder air and a threat for a frost and freeze across
the region during the middle of the week. Another cold front will
approach Thursday with the next chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...

-The Marginal Risk(Level 1) for severe storms has been upgraded to
a Slight Risk(Level 2) along and east of US 1. The main hazards are
damaging winds. A brief tornado is also, mainly over the eastern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain today. The severe threat is greatest
between 12pm to 7 pm.

-Widespread significant rain expected into this evening, tapering
off tonight. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is forecast throughout central
NC.

-There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of flash flooding today and
this evening. The main hazard is urban and small stream flooding.

Overview:

A vigorous upper trough and attendant wavy cold front will move
through the area through this evening and tonight. Anomalously moist
PWATS of 1.7-1.9"(falls outside/above the NAEFS 3-week centered
climatology dating back to 1979)into the area will set the stage for
multiple rounds of showers and storms within a slow eastward moving
band of convection. The convection/rain is expected to exit the
eastern/coastal plain zones between 06 to 08z.

Hydro/Flooding Concerns: Low from midday through this evening

Expected storm total rainfall amounts of 1-2", with localized higher
amounts of 2-3" possible, will bring some much needed widespread
rain to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions
encompassing much of central NC. Flooding threat will be very
localized/isolated, likely limited to poor drainage/urban
environments. In terms of rivers, forecast and ensemble guidance
indicate that main-stream rivers should stay below flood guidance,
with a few forecast points, approaching actions stage, with a worst-
scenario of cresting just above minor flood stage.

Severe Potential: Low: from midday through this evening

As the waves of low pressure move ENE along the boundary, an
increase in low level helicity/shear is likely. Instability is
expected be weak,, but will be maximized(500-1000 J/kg) along and
east of US 1, where the marginal risk has been upgraded to slight a
risk. Do not expect widespread severe threat, but a few strong to
severe storms are possible as the convective band pushes slowly east
across the area. The primary threat remains damaging winds .
An isolated tornado is also possible. The severe threat is greatest
between 12p to 3p western third ---2p to 5p central third ---- 4p to
7p eastern third.

Temperatures: Daytime highs(7am-7pm) ranging from mid/upper 60 north
to upper 70s/lower 80s SE. CAA will set in Monday night with lows
much cooler compared to the 3-4 day span of record warm nights. Lows
ranging from upper 30s/near 40 NW to upper 40s/near 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

-Frost/freeze conditions likely Tuesday night.

As the main cold front moves offshore early Tuesday morning, a dry
reinforcing cold front will move across the region during the day
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds in behind. Expect mainly
sunny skies Tuesday and Tuesday night with a cool NW wind filtering
in cooler temperatures. After multiple days of above normal
temperatures, the cool high pressure will usher in below normal
temperatures with highs on Tuesday in the mid 50s  north to low 60s
south. Lows will bottom out Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in the
upper 20s near the VA/NC border and mid 30s elsewhere. Frost/freeze
products will most likely be issued for this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

-Unsettled weather returns Thursday.

High pressure over the region on Wednesday will result in light
winds and mostly sunny skies. Below normal high temperatures on
Wednesday range from upper 50s to low 60s during the day and upper
30s to mid 40s at night. By Thursday, temperatures begin to moderate
as the high pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front
moving across the OH and TN valley will move into our region with
increasing PoPs beginning Thursday afternoon especially across the
NW Piedmont. The models are showing different scenarios wrt the
surface low attached to the cold front shifting east. Whether the
low tracks over the Great Lakes region or dives south over the Mid-
Atlantic region, expect showers and storms beginning Thursday
evening and continuing through early Saturday morning. Details on
Saturdays forecast will depend on the track, and if another low
develops off the SC/NC coast Saturday. If that happens then there
will be another round of showers and storms on Saturday. But for now
kept PoPs at a around 20% for Saturday. After that models agree that
Sunday is expected to be dry. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday
will be a bit of a roller coaster with highs in the 60s to low 70s
and lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. On the bright side, no
temperature records are expected to be broken or tied Wednesday
through Sunday!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH Saturday/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period:
A slow eastward moving band of showers, with some embedded
thunderstorms, will cross the area through the evening and
early overnight hours, before exiting.

MVFR to IFR restrictions can be expected as the convection moves
through the area. A few of the storms could become strong/severe
during the afternoon/early evening, mainly from RDU eastward. Gusty
SWLY winds of 30 to 35 kts will continue ahead of the storms, with a
period of weaker, 15 to 20 kts NWLY post frontal gustiness expected
during the evening and overnight hours. The sub-VFR restrictions
will scatter out to VFR from west to east between 03z and 12z and
should remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast peiod.

Beyond 18z Tuesday; The next chance for sub-VFR restrictions will
arrive late Thursday into Friday with the arrival of the next
shortwave trough and frontal system into the Eastern US.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
530 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

NCZ021-022-038-080930-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-
530 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of flash flooding today.
The main hazard is expected to be the potential of mainly urban and
small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a likelihood of freezing conditions Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Lows should fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
530 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today
through early evening. The main hazards are the potential of local
damaging wind gusts and possibly an isolated tornado. The main timing
will be from noon through 800 PM.

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of flash flooding today and
tonight. The main hazard is expected to be the potential of mainly
urban and small stream flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a likelihood of freezing conditions Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Lows should fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-071845-
Edgecombe NC-Nash NC-Johnston NC-Halifax NC-Wilson NC-
150 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NASH...EDGECOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN
HALIFAX...WILSON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

At 149 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers near
Nashville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leggett, Whitakers, Pinetops, Tarboro, Flowers, Elm City, Emit,
Lucama, Scotland Neck, and Buckhorn Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3591 7735 3572 7771
      3550 7844 3571 7847 3581 7826 3598 7815
      3614 7771 3630 7742 3626 7741 3624 7738
      3621 7738 3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3616 7726 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 237DEG 52KT 3590 7804

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

NCZ040-041-076-077-071900-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
155 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN
LEE...WAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers over Cary,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Wheeler, Broadway, Zebulon, Lake Benson, Research Triangle, Wake
Forest, Knightdale, Sanford, Seaforth Boat Dock, and Wendell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 7843 3594 7839 3593 7835 3591 7835
      3590 7833 3590 7831 3583 7826 3582 7826
      3576 7836 3543 7905 3547 7926 3583 7897
      3587 7889 3587 7883 3590 7882 3592 7878
      3592 7876 3594 7873 3603 7856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 248DEG 47KT 3579 7881

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

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