Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
857 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will impact the region through today,
bringing windy conditions and a chance for strong or severe
thunderstorms. Behind this system, high pressure will build into the
Southeast states Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 851 AM Sunday...

* A threat for damaging winds, brief tornadoes, strong gradient
  winds and potential flooding exist for today.

Biggest concern in the next few hours is the cluster of storms
rapidly approaching from upstate SC.  Broken segments within this
cluster have shown signs of rotation and will likely continue to do
so as they enter our southern Piedmont and push east through the
Sandhills. Latest sfc analysis out ahead of this segment indicates
juicy dew points in the lower to mid 60s, with increasingly backed
sfc flow.  RAP-derived hodographs in this vicinity are classically
curved as well. Despite all this, the 00Z HREF run (as well as
recent HRRR runs) don't really simulate 0-3 km helicity swaths
across much of our area until early this afternoon. Likely, these
models are struggling to stretch any rotation to the sfc given
little to no lower-level instability.  Regardless, we do expect this
cluster to continue to show signs of rotation as it enters out
southern areas, which could generate a brief tornado or two this
morning.

Immediately following this initial line of convection, some
instability is expected to blossom. As such, there still appears to
be a short window where cell growth may coincide with enough curved
low-level shear to create a better tornado threat early this
afternoon.  This signal is evident in the 00Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs which depict more helicity swaths during this time period,
particularly across our Sandhills and Coastal Plain through early
this evening. Beyond the tornado threat today, given the strong flow
just above the sfc, thunderstorm wind damage will be possible as
well through this evening.  Shear should become less curved by later
this evening as the main tornado threat shifts closer to the coast.

The previous discussion handles the other threats today quite well
including flooding concerns. See below...

2 PM through roughly 8 PM - Gradient wind gusts will gradually begin
to weaken in the wake of this first convective line. The stalled
outflow and weakly stable cold pool left behind will act as a
trigger for additional storm development where 250 to 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE is still available based on the 00z HREF. Mostly
unidirectional wind field and straight hodographs will favor mostly
a wind threat from bowing segments, although brief spinups within
storm scale mesovortices will remain possible. This boundary will
be oriented parallel to the deep layer shear vector and low-level
convergence axis and favor training showers/storms with high
rainfall rates. This is where a swath of greater rainfall totals of
1.5 to over 3" will be most probable (along and east of US-1
corridor). Additional development across the Piedmont is expected in
the wake of the first round. Straight hodographs, steep lapse rates,
and +1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE would support a mainly wind threat, but
splitting cells and a localized hail risk will be possible, but
greatly depend on the presence of deep convection with drier air
moving in aloft.

After 8 PM - The strong upper trough will begin to more aggressively
shift eastward and shift the showers/storms eastward into eastern NC
and return dry conditions to the area and push a cold front south
and east of central NC overnight hours. Lows will depend greatly on
the amount of CAA into the area, but trended towards warmer guidance
(upper 40s to mid 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

Clearing, windy, and much cooler Monday.

Temperatures near freezing for portions of northern NC Monday night.

The main axis of showers will push to our east by 12z/Monday.
However, there is still a chance of showers mainly along and east of
I-95 in the morning hours. The chance of showers will push east
along with the mid/upper level trough axis during the early to mid
afternoon. Most of the cloudiness will clear out of the west during
the morning and in the east during the afternoon. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected with NW winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30
mph. Highs only near 60 NW ranging into the upper 60s SE.

High pressure will build from the Gulf Coast states NE over the
Appalachians Monday night. The winds will diminish and temperatures
are expected to fall into the lower to mid 30s north and west and 35
to 40 east and south.

&&.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...

Mostly dry this week, temperatures up and down - averaging above
normal.

Highlights... the majority of the work week will be dry. There is a
chance of showers mainly late Wednesday night into a part of
Thursday as a cold front is forecast to push through central NC
during the day. QPF will be light this week with only up to a tenth
expected with the next frontal passage Thursday. It will turn chilly
again behind the front Thursday night into Saturday, before
moderating quickly again late in the weekend.

A few specifics, expect plenty of sun with high pressure Tuesday and
Wednesday as it slowly moves off the coast. Temperatures will
quickly moderate back into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and
into the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday. Lows will moderate in to
the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Highs Thursday with the
chance of light showers will be in the mid 60s to near 80 NW to SE.

The next chance of sub-freezing temperatures is Thursday night and
Friday night (mainly in the rural northern and central Piedmont).
Lows will likely dip into the lower 30s. Elsewhere, lows in the mid
to upper 30s and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s can be expected
Thursday night through Saturday. Moderating temperatures are
forecast this weekend with rain chances looking slim.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM Sunday...

MVFR cigs are common throughout the region and surface winds
have been gusting to 25-35kt. A line of showers/isolated
thunderstorms to our west will arrive in the Triad between 12z-
13z, then progress east.

After 14z, mainly added a TEMPO or prevailing IFR conditions when
the best timing of the broken line of convection moves through the
terminals. Brief LIFR vsby will certainly will be possible during
the late morning and afternoon when surface based convection will be
most likely (RDU, FAY, RWI) and accompany better chances for
severe wind gusts (> 50 kts). The pre-convection winds
and wind gusts were generally kept sustained around 15-20 kts
with gusts 35 to 40 kts. Some additional development of
showers and storms will be possible behind the lead band of
showers/storms, yet the evolution after the initial line is
uncertain.

Beyond 06Z Monday: Conditions will return to VFR with a wind
shift to the NW late. Winds will not be nearly as strong with
10-15 kt. A chance of showers will persist, mainly in the east
before 12z/Monday. Dry VFR conditions will return Monday and
continue until another period of light showers and
restrictions are possible Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/Swiggett

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

NCZ022-023-038>040-073>076-083>086-161445-
Guilford NC-Anson NC-Hoke NC-Alamance NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
Moore NC-Scotland NC-Stanly NC-Richmond NC-Lee NC-Chatham NC-
Randolph NC-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ALAMANCE...
SCOTLAND...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...EASTERN ANSON...MONTGOMERY...
RICHMOND...EASTERN STANLY...SOUTHWESTERN LEE...WESTERN HOKE...
MOORE...RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 1045
AM EDT...

At 1004 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles north of Badin Lake to 9 miles
northwest of Rockingham to Mechanicsville. Movement was northeast at
65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Steeds, Badin, Harpers Crossroads, New London, Covington, Pekin, East
Rockingham, Staley, Climax, and Lake Townsend Marina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 8004 3512 8010 3550 8027
      3551 8019 3552 8018 3558 8021 3569 8034
      3572 8033 3625 7973 3625 7970 3572 7931
      3486 7922 3483 7925 3483 7935 3477 7933
      3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 218DEG 56KT 3562 8008 3503 7987 3433 7976

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA

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