Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of cold fronts will move south across the region today and
this evening. Much cooler Canadian high pressure will follow and
extend across the middle Atlantic states this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Friday...

*  Pockets of Heavy Rain and Isolated Severe Storms remains possible
   this afternoon and evening, particularly across southern portions
   of the forecast area

Overview: Complex meteorological setup today, with lower than average
confidence in the coverage and intensity of afternoon and evening
storms. Multiple weak sfc boundaries are likely draped across the
region. However, a more prominent boundary---currently aligned along
highway 64 and marked by a thicker layer of low clouds and stratus
north, with shallower cloud features to the south---appears to be
the primary effective front. The greatest concern for isolated
severe storms and locally heavy rainfall is expected to remain south
of this boundary where strong destabilization of 2000-3000 J/KG of
MLCAPE is forecast.

Flooding Potential: PWATs 2.3"-2.5"(98-99th percentile) combined
with moderate to strong destablization instability, will support
heavy rainfall rates. Isolated/pockets of flash flooding will be
most likely in urban/poor drainage areas, mainly across southern NC.

Severe Weather Potential: Weak shear and modest mid-level lapse
rates aloft will limit storm organization. However, strong
precipitation loading in deep updrafts and or cell collisions may
trigger isolated wet downbursts, again mainly across southern NC.
The severe threat appears greatest between 4-8 pm.

While areas north of the front may also see scattered to numerous
showers and storms, a more stable, overcast low cloud deck is likely
to limit both convective coverage and intensity in those areas.

High Temperatures: Daytime highs will depend on the evolution of the
widespread multi-layer cloud cover across the area and subsequent
convective development. Either way expect a sharp north to south
temperature gradient ranging from near 80 north to lower 90s SE.

Late this evening and overnight: Rain chances will taper off from
north to south as the front sinks south of the area, with some
lingering showers possible across the far southern zones as
widespread stratus develops within the NELY low-level flow.
Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter into overnight. Lows
ranging 65-70 F, coolest across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

* Cooler and mostly cloudy within the summer-time wedge of high
  pressure.

The leading edge of the cold front will be well south of the area by
Sat morning and situated off the Carolina coast and extending
westward through GA and AL. Seasonably strong surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes will weaken as it spreads out across the
Northeast. This cooler Canadian high pressure will extend down
through the area in a hybrid CAD fashion, providing a steady supply
of cooler and drier air as the surface. Morning low overcast and
perhaps some light drizzle over western NC may leak eastward into
the Triad through daybreak, supplied by weak mesoscale lift atop the
still saturated cool airmass at the surface. This is expected to
gradually weaken as another northeasterly surge shifts this regime
farther southwest and out of the area by mid-afternoon.

Some clearing skies with diurnal cumulus will be possible from the
Triangle eastward while the western Piedmont may replace the eroding
low clouds with a steady stream of mid/upper level clouds from
convection across the Southeast. Highs will be tricky and dependent
on the erosion of low-clouds and drizzle in the western Piedmont.
Current forecast keeps mid/upper 70s in the Triad and low 80s, but
guidance that holds onto this drizzle/overcast longest suggest the
Triad may stay in the 60s all day. Lows will be slightly below
normal in the 60s areawide.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

* Long-duration cool weather expected with below normal temperatures
  through Friday.

* Best rain chances come Tuesday into Wednesday.

Surface high pressure over the northern Mid-Atlantic will be
replaced by another area of Canadian high pressure over the
Northeast and will favor north-northeasterly flow over the region
throughout the forecast period. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to develop along the stalled boundary over the western
Atlantic and further lock in the northerly flow over the area. This
will persist the below normal temperatures through the forecast
period with gradual modification expected Thurs into Fri as the high
begins to shift further east and Bermuda high pressure begins to
influence the region.

Precipitation chances will be fairly limited until Tues into Wed
when broad troughing over the Mississippi Valley subtly sharpens and
extends weakly perturbed southwesterly flow over the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Instability appears limited and may be an
area of stratiform rain with some embedded showers/storms at it
progresses through the area. Diurnal showers/storms become more
likely Thurs and Fri as we lose influence from the surface high to
the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Friday...

Multiple weak sfc fronts/boundaries draped across the region will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area
through the evening, with the highest coverage and intensity at
KINT, KGSO and KFAY, and lower coverage towards the northeast
(KRWI).

A widespread area of MVFR stratus has developed across much of the
area. Recent model trends suggest little to no improvement in
ceilings through the remainder of the afternoon. Ceilings will lower
further to IFR restrictions this evening and tonight, with pockets
of LIFR restrictions possible as the synoptic cold front pushes
south of the area. Additionally, periods of light patchy rain or
drizzle could linger into Saturday morning.  Between 12-18z
Saturday, expect gradual improvement to MVFR throughout the late
morning and afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to return late Saturday
afternoon. Generally dry VFR conditions are expected through Monday.
Rain chances will increase will gradually increase from the south
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
504 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-020915-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
504 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Slight, level two of four risk of excessive rain today means
scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. In addition,
a Marginal, level one of five risk of severe thunderstorms Friday
means isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>023-038>042-078-020915-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-
Wayne-
504 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Marginal to slight, level one to level two of four risk of
excessive rain today means isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible. In addition, a Marginal, level one of five
risk of severe thunderstorms for today means isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-024>028-043-020915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Wilson-
504 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Marginal, level one of four risk of excessive rain Friday means
isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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