Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend. This will result in a continuation of
dangerously hot weather across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

-Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central NC until midnight tonight.

-An Extreme Heat Warning (east) and a Heat Advisory (west) remain in
effect through 800 PM this evening.

-There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) and a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) for severe thunderstorms across central NC this afternoon and
evening.

As storms begin to develop across the region this afternoon, some
could become severe producing strong damaging wind gusts. Storm
motion is slow, and thus flash flooding in urban and poor drainage
areas is also a threat today. The heat is still a threat today as
well as storms are very isolated. Current observations show numerous
areas in 95-100 range for air temperature and with high humidity
values , heat indices are ranging from 103 to 113 degrees. With
SBCAPE values ranging from 4000 to 7000 J/kg expect multi-cellular
and pulse storms this afternoon and evening. These storms are
expected to build quick and collapse just as quick. Storms will
generally move from north to south/southwest through the afternoon
and evening hours. Most models show most of the storm activity
diminishing after midnight for the entire area. Some areas in the
east will see storm potential diminish before that. Lows overnight
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 226 PM Wednesday...

Heat Advisory for all the region Thursday 11 AM through 700 PM
Thursday.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The only significant change to this period was to expand the Heat
Advisory to include all of central North Carolina Thursday. The
convection this evening and what is expected on Thursday will temper
the heat a little, but highs should still reach the mid to upper 90s
with heat indices of 102 to 109 NW to south and urban areas. Thus,
advisory level heat will continue.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of additional pulse type
severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The overall storms
should be scattered with a more localized damaging wind threat.

The chance of storms will decrease by late Thursday evening with the
loss of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

* Continued above normal temps but with less intense heat.

* Little change in the stagnant weak-flow regime through Mon,
  yielding daily late-day storm chances, mainly across the NW half.

* Convection chances increase by Tue.

During this period, the baggy mid-upper low over the Southeast
states will drift slowly NW and N while weakening further, trending
to a broad weak trough over the Mid South and western Carolinas by
late weekend then drifting to over and just E of the Appalachians by
Mon. While we'll no doubt see small day-over-day changes in the
sensible weather, given the weak pressure patterns through a deep
layer, poor mid level flow, and the lack of any significant weather
systems over much of this period, will follow persistence for the
forecast, with temps generally staying above normal in the 90s (as
low level thicknesses stay about 5-10 m above normal each day) and
with late-day scattered storms focused over our N and W areas. With
humidity still elevated, both forecast heat indices and the
experimental Heat Risk product show that additional heat advisories
may be needed Fri-Mon, mainly along and E of Hwy 1, but overall the
most intense and dangerous heat will have subsided. By Tue, a
northern stream trough digging over ON/James Bay/QC and the W Great
Lakes will shift into the Ohio Valley, and this increase in low and
mid level flow with an approaching corresponding cold front should
prompt greater and earlier storm coverage Tue with increased
cloudiness. Expect highs closer to normal, around 90-95. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 126 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered to possibly numerous thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon spreading SW through the evening. Pulse type
severe storms with damaging wind gusts will pose a hazard with and
near these storms. Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions tonight
with patchy fog possible. Mostly MVFR conditions expected. Another
round of scattered storms is expected Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
and early morning fog/low stratus through the end of the week and
weekend. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 25      77 (2010)      75 (2015)       75 (1952)
June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 25      100 (1952)      101 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ021>023-038-
039-073>075-083>086.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...Badgett

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