Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal surface trough and cold front will push through the
region this afternoon and evening. Bermuda high pressure will
strengthen off the Carolina coast this weekend, then extend westward
over the Mid-Atlantic states next week bringing the season's first
extended heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

*A band of strong to severe storms expected to move west to east
across the area this afternoon and late evening.

*Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with isolated large
hail possible.

*Localized flash flooding can't be rule out due to recent wetness

Strong upper level trough moving across the OH and TN valley today
will move swiftly across the Mid-Atlantic region this evening and
overnight. Currently radar is showing a line of storms developing
across the northern Foots hills/ NW Piedmont region. It is expected
to continue a easterly movement while expanding north to south in
coverage. This line of storms have already produced damaging wind
gusts across the northern Foothills. The environment across the
region is still very favorable for scattered severe storms. SBCAPE
values are 2000 to 4000 J/kj, and shear values will range from 30-
45kts stronger across the Northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain
region. The main hazard with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts and hail. Timing has slightly varied across the hi-res models,
but generally expect the Triad region to see storms developing now
until around 6 or 7pm. Then the expanding line is expected to
progress eastward early this evening and across the Triangle and
surrounding areas before moving to the coastal plain later this
evening. Storms are expected to continue through much of the evening
and early overnight hours over the Coastal Plain but expecting the
severe threat to begin to diminish between 8-11pm. After which,
generally just strong showers are expected along the coast as the
cold front pushes off the coast overnight into Friday morning.

The heat is here and the cold front moving through the evening will
give some relief this afternoon but in the mean time current
observations show much of the NW Piedmont in the upper 80s and
elsewhere in the low 90s. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph with
occasional gusts up to 25 are also making it not feel too bad out
there. Current heat indices as of 2pm are in the upper 90s no places
have yet hit 100 but a few areas are reporting heat index of 99.
Behind the front temperatures will drop into the mid 60s NW to low
70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

* Lingering showers possible in the far southeast during the
  afternoon/evening, otherwise a warm-to-hot and dry day is expected.

The cold front should be through the region by Friday morning,
allowing for temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than today's.
However, temperatures are still expected to be above average, with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Dew points should drop from
Thursday's, into the 60s to low 70s, which will allow a heat index
that is close to the ambient temperature. During the afternoon and
early evening hours, a few showers may linger with the cold frontal
boundary in the far western portions of the CWA. Otherwise, the post-
frontal high pressure will allow for dry conditions. Overnight, low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

* Hot conditions are expected through much of next week, with
  extreme and dangerous heat possible mid week.

* Heat advisories are likely at least Monday through Wednesday.

Deep high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the region
for the entire extended period. This will allow the majority of the
next week to be dry. However, a few isolated showers are possible
during the afternoons late week.

The main hazard in the long term will be the heat. Maximum
temperatures are expected to be hot each day in the long term,
increasing in intensity from Saturday to Tuesday, then decreasing by
just a few degrees to end the week. Maximum temperatures on Saturday
are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. By Monday, maximum
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees, with heat indices above 100 degrees. Temperatures should
increase slightly on Tuesday, with greater coverage in areas that
could exceed 100 degrees. Wednesday and Thursday will still be hot,
however could drop a few degrees each day. Heat advisories will
likely be needed for at least Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, with
Excessive Heat Warnings possible in the northeast if heat indices
increase over 110.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

A line of showers and storms is expected to track west to east
across the region between 20 to 03z, resulting in periods of
sub-VFR restrictions, mainly due to reduced VSBYs. Some of the
strong storms could produce wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts. This
convection should exit the eastern terminals by 06z Friday,
followed by west to east clearing.

After 12Z Friday: Drier weather and prevailing VFR conditions are
expected Friday through early next week as strong high pressure
builds across our region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Weather Records/Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 18      75 (1935)      73 (2018)       76 (2017)
June 19      73 (2018)      77 (1970)       77 (2017)

June 21      75 (1933)      75 (1924)       84 (1928)
June 22      78 (1933)      75 (1981)       84 (1928)
June 23      78 (2024)      74 (2024)       77 (2024)
June 24      76 (2024)      76 (2015)       79 (2010)
June 25      77 (2010)      75 (2015)       75 (1952)

Weather Records/Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 21      101 (1933)      100 (1933)     105 (1933)
June 22      100 (2022)      100 (1914)     101 (1990)
June 23      100 (2024)      102 (1914)     102 (1981)
June 24       99 (2010)      103 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 25      100 (1952)      101 (1914)     102 (1914)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 19th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the evening hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...PM(RNK)
CLIMATE...RAH
EQUIPMENT...RAH

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