Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Raleigh, NC

752 
WGUS72 KRAH 300010
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
810 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCC067-300020-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-250630T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forsyth NC-
810 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH 
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. Additional 
rain may impact the area later tonight.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8046 3606 8047 3605 8047 3604 8049
      3605 8051 3607 8051 3608 8052 3611 8051
      3612 8046 3614 8044 3617 8044 3621 8045
      3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045 3626 8010
      3614 8011 3611 8027 3602 8043 3603 8044

$$

LH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of
the week. A cold front will slowly cross North Carolina Tuesday into
Wednesday, then get hung up along the Atlantic coastline into the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 136 PM Sunday...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected once again this
  afternoon

Early afternoon radar and satellite imagery reveal developing
convection across central NC. Two areas have blossomed thus far: the
Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain in the vicinity of a
stalled/remnant surface boundary from Saturday's convection, and the
foothills to our west. In between those areas, the cu field has
rapidly matured over the past 3 hours.

CAMs are still struggling to catch on to the present situation. They
don't show much in the way of additional convective initiation until
much later today, and even then the guidance is most enthused about
precip chances across the western Piedmont and largely overlooking
the Coastal Plain. In reality, it would seem that both of these
areas will be the initial focal points for storm development, with
colliding outflows serving to trigger additional storms through the
central portion of our CWA along US-1. I'm going to maintain the
idea of PoPs everywhere today, keeping the highest values in the
western Piedmont, but accounting for storm potential across the
entirety of central NC. The stalled upper low to our west along with
MLCAPEs around 2500 J/KG are of enough concern to warrant PoPs that
are higher than guidance would otherwise indicate.

As for temperatures, look for late day highs to top out in the mid
90s, with lows ranging from the lower 70s in the northwest to the
mid 70s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 136 PM Sunday...

* Similar synoptic setup continues on Monday, with scattered showers
  and storms.

The stalled upper low should begin to wash out tomorrow, eventually
opening up a bit and moving through the western Piedmont tomorrow
afternoon as broad longwave troughing moves eastward toward the Ohio
Valley. Much like today, steady southerly flow, remnant boundaries,
and 2000-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE will all set the stage favorably for
diurnally driven convection across the area. Highest PoPs in the
western Piedmont tomorrow afternoon, with at least some 20-30
percent values everywhere given the potential for colliding outflows
and subsequent development.

As for temperatures, look for highs to reach the low to mid 90s,
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 136 PM Sunday...

* Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase late
  Tuesday afternoon through early Wed morning and bring a risk for
  strong to severe storms and isolated instances of flash flooding.

A broad, low-amplitude trough will swing across Great Lakes Tues and
towards the Newfoundland and Labrador Canadian Province by Wed
morning. Generally weak H5 height falls and remnant MCVs within the
base of the trough will be the primary driver in showers/storms Tues
into Wed morning. A weak cold front, but more likely an effective
cold front from convective outflow, is forecast to traverse the
region late Tues afternoon through the overnight hours and result in
showers/storms during this time. Dew points in the low/mid 70s
should foster weak to moderate instability with diurnal heating over
the Carolinas. Mid-level flow is generally weak (15 to 20 kts) and
backing wind profile above 500mb should result in mostly unorganized
convection, but strong to severe wind gusts may still be possible
from isolated water-loaded downbursts underneath the deepest storms.
Lingering elevated instability, a slow moving front, and PWAT around
2 inches (well above the 90th percentile) will make at least
isolated instances of flash flooding a possibility late Tues into
Wed morning.

The effective front will slowly sag southeastward and eventually
hang up over eastern NC and provide some additional focus for storms
Wed before another weak front is forecast to push into the area and
provide a reinforcing shot of relatively drier air for the latter
half of the week.  This should limit storms Thu-Sat and keep heat
indices mostly in the 90s despite high temps recovering into the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 136 PM Sunday...

Convection expected once again today, with the western Piedmont the
most favored area although confidence is increasing that storms
could develop at the remaining terminals as well. Going to introduce
a few hours of thunder at all sites with the main chances between
19Z-23Z, then diminishing after 00Z. Outside of erratic and gusty
thunderstorm winds, expect light WSW winds at all sites. There is
some potential for fog/stratus overnight but given there wasn't much
this morning, I am going to leave it out of the TAFs for now.

Outlook: Typical diurnally driven convection expected on Monday,
with more widespread coverage Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough
slowly moves through the area. Storms becoming more widely scattered
in nature Thursday and Friday. In the absence of storms, VFR weather
should prevail.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Swiggett/BLS
AVIATION...Leins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-301200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
240 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Tuesday.
The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. In addition, there
is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
201 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ075-083>086-291845-
Scotland NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Moore NC-
201 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MOORE...SCOTLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN ANSON...RICHMOND AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockingham. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Pinehurst, Hamlet, Aberdeen,
Hoffman, Pinebluff, Ellerbe, and Foxfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7992 3501 8000 3518 7969
      3516 7964 3516 7962 3519 7965 3526 7953
      3517 7915 3483 7921 3484 7935 3480 7935
      3478 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 257DEG 0KT 3489 7980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ026-027-041-291945-
Nash NC-Franklin NC-Wake NC-
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NASH...NORTHEASTERN
WAKE AND CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wake Forest, or 9 miles northeast of Raleigh, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Zebulon, Franklinton, Bunn,
Knightdale, Wendell, Rolesville, and Spring Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 7831 3592 7804 3580 7825 3582 7826
      3572 7843 3571 7847 3567 7851 3592 7876
      3596 7872 3604 7858 3602 7855 3606 7854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 230DEG 13KT 3589 7851

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
248 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ075>077-086-291930-
Lee NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-
248 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOORE...SOUTHWESTERN
HARNETT...SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Southern Pines, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Southern Pines, Carthage, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Whispering
Pines, Taylortown, Vass, Cameron, and Lemon Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 7963 3552 7937 3553 7931 3527 7889
      3521 7899 3519 7909 3514 7911 3503 7929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 229DEG 7KT 3526 7932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ021-022-292030-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND
NORTHERN GUILFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 327 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kernersville, or 7 miles northwest of Greensboro, moving north at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Kernersville, McLeansville, Summerfield,
Stokesdale, Haw River State Park, Monticello, Lake Jeanette Marina,
and Belews Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7954 3602 7973 3604 8007 3626 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 176DEG 9KT 3612 7995

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NCZ021-022-038-292230-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
525 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FORSYTH...NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON
AND WESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Huntsville, or 10 miles south of East Bend, moving
north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Kernersville, Clemmons,
Bermuda Run, Huntsville, Lewisville, Summerfield, and Stokesdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8050 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045
      3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045 3625 7986
      3594 7995 3597 8039 3598 8041 3599 8042
      3601 8042 3603 8045 3606 8046 3606 8047
      3604 8049 3608 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 201DEG 5KT 3608 8045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA