Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level disturbance will move northeast across the
Carolinas this afternoon and evening. Low pressure will strengthen
across the lower Ohio Valley later tonight and across and offshore
the Middle Atlantic Friday and Friday night. A trailing, strong cold
front will move across the southern Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

...Level 1/Marginal Threat for severe storms through
this evening...

A series of convective-enhanced impulses/MCVs will move through the
region this afternoon, ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough
currently positioned over the mid south. This trough is expected to
track east-northeast through the area this evening and tonight.

Rain and storms chances will increase significantly between 18-21z,
as these disturbances move into the area. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are likely, with the best coverage and
potentially strongest storms enhanced by the sea-breeze boundary
that's expected to advance inland. The strongest storms,
particularly any that forms into a cluster, will be capable of
strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe threat is expected to diminish this evening as boundary
layer(BL) stabilization sets in with the loss of daytime heating.
Additionally, weak mid-level lapse rates will further limit storm
intensity. However, rain chances will persist through the overnight
hours, as 500mb height falls on the order of 40-60m overspread the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

...There remains a Level 2/Slight Risk of Severe Storms Friday afternoon
and evening...

A strong mid-level trough centered across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Friday morning will shift eastward, reaching the Carolinas
Friday evening and Friday night. At the surface, a pre-frontal sfc
trough located along the lee of the Appalachians will advance
eastward during the afternoon and evening, preceding the main cold
front expected to sweep east across the area later in the evening.

After any lingering morning convection, a brief reprieve is expected
before more widespread development of showers and storms in the
afternoon  as strong synoptic scale lift(80-110 meter 500mb height
falls) and associated mid and upper jet spreads in from the west.

This lull will allow for partial daytime heating, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower/mid 80s. Combined with surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 60s F, this should yield moderate destabilization
across central NC.

A pre-frontal band of showers and thunderstorm is expected to cross
the mountains in the late morning to early afternoon, progressing
eastward through the area between 18 to 00z. Additionally, closely-
spaced convective re-development is likely along the actual cold
front, which should exit eastern counties by around 03z Saturday.

The leading pre-frontal convective band appears most likely to bring
the greatest severe threat. Given strong 0-6 km shear of 50-60 kts,
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. An
isolated tornado will also be possible. The severe threat appears
greatest from 2-8pm in the west, to 4-10 pm in the east.

Skies are expected to clear out from west to east after midnight
with CAA during the latter half of the night allowing for seasonably
cool overnight lows Saturday morning in the lower to mid 50s across
the across the NW to around 60 east. &&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

* Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Saturday in the
  northeast. Scattered thunderstorms may pose a threat for hail and
  damaging winds.

* Multiple rounds of unsettled weather are possible over the weekend
  associated with multiple shortwave troughs.

The mid and upper level trough will continue to pivot over the
region, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to impact
the region. The first shortwave will move through the region
Saturday, increasing rain chances in the north and east. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon and evening. Long,
straight hodographs suggest that with any cells that form, hail and
damaging winds are possible. Another shortwave trough will move
through the region Sunday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of
showers during the afternoon through night. The final shortwave
should pivot across the region on Monday, allowing for a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the Coastal Plain. High
pressure and deep ridging is expected to start to build in on
Tuesday, leaving a dry forecast for the majority of the rest of the
extended period. Otherwise, rain chances increase again Thursday
afternoon as another cold front approaches the region.

In terms of temperatures, the long term will be dominated by a
warming trend after the slight cool down from the cold fropa on
Friday. Expect maximum temperatures to increase from the mid 70s to
low 80s on Saturday, to the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Low
temperatures will increase from the 50s on Saturday night, to the
upper 60s to low 70s by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period: MVFR ceilings continue to be observed early this
afternoon at many sites across central NC, especially the northern
Piedmont. Daytime heating and mixing should help lift these ceilings
to the low VFR range over the next few hours, latest to occur at INT
and GSO. Meanwhile, destabilization and a series of mid/upper
disturbances will bring scattered showers and storms to the region
this afternoon and evening, with coverage increasing from west to
east between 18z and 22z. Locally gusty winds and MVFR conditions
will be possible in any storms, which was highlighted with a PROB30
group at all TAF sites. An area of more stratiform rain is then
expected to move across central NC overnight tonight, particularly
in the south and east, with accompanying MVFR ceilings/visibilities.
Once this rain exits, ceilings are expected to lower to the IFR
range in many areas early Friday morning. LIFR and fog/mist will
even be possible around 09z to 13z, mainly around the Triad where
some partial clearing could occur. Ceilings will then lift to MVFR
around mid morning and VFR by late morning and early afternoon.

Outlook: Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along and
ahead of a cold front on Fri, and a few showers/storms may redevelop
with daytime heating, especially around RWI, on Sat. Additionally,
gusty surface winds are expected from the southwest Fri and west
northwest Sat. VFR conditions and dry weather are expected early
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LBH
AVIATION...Danco/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
628 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-301200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
628 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered storms will develop this afternoon through evening. The
strongest storms and any that cluster will be capable of strong to
locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday. Although large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards, an isolated
tornado or two will also be possible.

A few storms with small hail will also be possible Saturday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, especially during the afternoon
Friday.

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