Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
208 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms expected tomorrow over the southeast plains;
all convective hazards possible.

- A few strong storms this afternoon over the southern I-25 corridor
and adjacent S mtns.

- Fog expected over the Palmer Divide tonight

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms were developing over the mountains and were
pushing east. These storms are in response to another in a series of
shortwaves in the modest W-SW flow aloft. Otherwise, most of the
region is seeing a bit more sun then the last few days although low
clouds are still socked in over parts of El Paso county with the
continuing SSE moist sfc flow.

Rest of Today into tonight...

Latest SPC mesoanalysis page was indicating the atmosphere over the
southern I-25 corridor was starting to become unstable with mixed
CAPE values of 500-1000 Joules and 30 knots of effective shear.
Atmosphere should continue to destabilize and expect to see a few
strong to marginally severe storms develop over the greater southern
I-25 corridor later this afternoon. SPC continues to have this area
under marginal risk. Over the remainder of the region expected
scattered showers and storms to continue to develop over the higher
terrain and move out onto the plains during the 21-22 UTC time
frame. Some of these storms will produce locally heavy rain. From a
hydro perspective, given the rain that we have been having, HPC has
the region in marginal risk of flash flooding.

Tonight...

Expect showers and storms to linger over the mtns, especially
contdvd region into the later evening hours before gradually
dissipating.

With continuing S-SE sfc flow over the EL Paso county region, low
clouds are expected to continue with areas of locally dense fog on
top of the Palmer divide. Over the plains, clouds will be slow to
clear but should decrease west to east (except over EL Paso county)
as the night progresses.

Tomorrow...

The main concern this day will be severe convective storms. SPC has
area outlooked for slight with a 5% Tor risk and hatched hail over
the far southeastern plains. HREF shows several helicity tracks over
this region, with the activity lasting into the evening hours.
Although the brunt of the activity is over the greater Raton Mesa
region there are some track farther north over the Palmer Divide
region.

Hydro-wise, HPC continues to have fcst area in marginal risk for
flash flooding.

Otherwise, it will be warmer tomorrow across the fcst area with high
temps around 80F over the plains, around 70 larger valleys and 40s
and 50s mtns. \/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Overall, we should see a gradual warming trend over the period
although low level moisture is not expected to dry out all that
much, so we will continue with the possibility of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through the period. From the DESI
guidance, it appears Saturday should be the driest day over the
region. Temps over the plains will generally be in the 70s on the
plains Friday rising into the 80s for the weekend into early next
week. We may see a brief cooldown on Monday as a weak disturbance
pushes down in the NW'erly flow aloft. \/HOdanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2025

At KCOS, IFR conditions gradually improve to MVFR by late morning,
before showers redevelop starting around 19z. Kept a prob30 mention
of --tsra 22z-02z for now, as convection moves off the higher
terrain, though extensive cloud cover may keep things too stable,
with any precip mostly -shra. VCSH this evening, then IFR conditions
redevelop after 07z, with occasional drizzle/light rain/fog into Thu
morning.

At KPUB, occasional MVFR cigs/vis until mid-morning, then VFR with
vcsh returning after 19z. Prob30 for -tsra from 21z-02z, as storms
move off the higher terrain into the I-25 corridor. VCSH this
evening, then IFR cigs after 07z with occasional drizzle/light
rain/fog into Thu morning.

At KALS, VFR with vcsh after 18z, then prob30 for -tsra from 22z-
02z. Brief MVFR/IFR possible under any stronger storms. VCSH this
evening and overnight, though prevailing conditions will remain VFR
into Thu morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/WFO Pueblo
LONG TERM...HODANISH/WFO Pueblo
AVIATION...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
214 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

COZ074-079-087-042100-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet
CO-Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet
CO-Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet CO-
214 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
La Veta, or 39 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects

Locations impacted include...
  Walsenburg, La Veta, eastern Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160
  and northeastern Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano
  county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10512 3759 10510 3761 10508 3763 10509
      3783 10503 3762 10454 3757 10455 3753 10462
      3750 10465 3749 10469 3748 10469 3740 10491
      3740 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 220DEG 15KT 3754 10503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlatter