Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
240 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening, a few strong storms along
  the I-25 corridor.

- Forecast repeats on Sunday, with afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms expected, and few strong storms again possible.

- Cooler and wetter weather pattern on track for next week,
  with daily chances for showers/thunderstorms and temperatures
  much below seasonal averages Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Another late start for convection this afternoon, with just
isolated activity on radar as of 2 pm. Expect storms to expand
and strengthen over the mountains through the remainder of the
afternoon, then push eastward across the I-25 corridor starting
5-6 pm. CAPE around 1000 J/KG and 0-6km shear of 25 kts suggest
a couple strong/low end severe storms possible, especially
along I-25 this evening. Storms move onto the plains and
dissipate this by late evening, persisting the longest over Las
Animas/Baca Counties. On Sunday, upper ridge builds slightly
across CO, but overall, weather pattern remains the same, with
moisture/instability lingering and another round of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected. Again, maybe a
strong/brief severe storm possible along I-25 toward evening.
Temps will remain warm, with maxes drifting upward a degf or two
with building heights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Active weather week begins Monday, with old swrn U.S. upper low
finally booted northeastward into CO during the day as new
trough drops south along the Pacific Coast. With dynamic lift
strengthening across the area, expect shower and thunderstorm
coverage to increase, especially over the mountains along the
Continental Divide. Scattered to numerous showers/storms are
also expected across most interior valleys, while convection
on the plains looks more isolated, as low/mid level flow takes
on a more w-sw downslope component in the afternoon. Could be a
risk of a severe storm over the far eastern plains along the
weak surface trough/dryline, though low level moisture
convergence looks rather weak, and most model solutions keep
stronger storms well east in KS. Surface cold front then races
south through the area Monday night, with post-frontal upslope
and dynamic lift generating showers/thunderstorms through the
night into Tuesday morning, especially along the I-25 corridor
and across the eastern plains. In general, most model data has
trended wetter across the area Monday night, as upper low
appears to be slightly slower/stronger as it ejects across the
region. Showers/isolated thunderstorms linger Tue/Tue evening,
though air mass looks very cool and stable from the eastern
mountains across the plains, which may limit convection.

Slightly warmer Wed with afternoon/evening showers/storms,
though again cool temps may limit convective strength,
especially on the plains. Upper trough lingers over the western
U.S. into next weekend, and with moisture not going anywhere,
expect afternoon/evening convection to persist through the
period. Temps will gradually warm back toward seasonal averages
by the weekend, though no extreme heat is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Will continue to carry a prob30 at all taf sites from late this
afternoon into the evening, as convection initially forms over
the mountains, then moves southeast across lower elevations
22z-03z. Gusty outflow winds (35 kts plus) the main risk with
any storms, though a few of the stronger cells may produce
enough heavy rain and small hail to create MVFR/IFR cigs/vis
for a short period. Convection shifts into NM 03z-05z, with
clearing skies and light winds overnight into Sunday morning.
Forecast repeats on Sunday, with afternoon/evening thunderstorms
again possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-011745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1135 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon,
initially over the mountains, then spread southeast from the
eastern mountains onto southeast plains during the evening. A
couple of storms could become strong as they move through the I-25
corridor, especially late this afternoon and early this evening.
These stronger storms could produce nickel size hail and wind
gusts to 55 mph, along with lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will end by around midnight as
storms move southeast into New Mexico

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Daily rain showers and thunderstorms are still expected over the
next several days. Showers and storms will be greatest in coverage
along the higher terrain Sunday, and expand in coverage Monday
through Friday. Greatest hazards from any thunderstorms are expected
to be small hail, gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and
lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/SIMCOE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
448 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

COZ081-312330-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
448 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 448 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Cheesman Reservoir, or 34 miles northwest of
Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florissant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10519 3898 10509 3890 10533 3913 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 331DEG 20KT 3912 10535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KT

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