Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms likely through this evening across the southeast
  plains with all severe hazards possible.

- Warmer Saturday, with a decrease in storm chances, and only
  some isolated activity expected over the mountains and along
  the New Mexico border.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return to the
  region on Sunday, continuing through next week, while
  temperatures remain seasonably warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Not much change in the latest thinking with a favorable evening
for severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains capable of
all hazard types from very large hail to damaging winds and even
a couple of tornadoes. HREF mean CAPE values are sitting around
1000-1500 J/kg, which is not too far off SPC Mesoanalysis
values. If dew points can maintain in the low 50s along the I-25
corridor around peak heating we could easily yield some higher
CAPE values per NAM soundings. Up to 2000+ J/kg will be possible
farther east across the plains with upper 50s to lower 60 dew
points. Impressive deep layer shears 50+ kts and favorable low
level helicities will continue to favor supercell development
with straight line hodographs suggest storm splits. Low level
hodograph curvature improves into the evening across the
eastern plains and SSCRAM output suggest unconditional tor
probabilities maximizing around LHX eastward after 00z. HREF
updraft helicities show some impressive swaths across the
southeast plains and Tornado watch will continue through 03z
with a possible need to extend for an hour across far southeast
plains until 04z.

Activity will gradually pull eastward through the evening and
exit eastern CO overnight. Will need to watch for possible
ground fog development overnight, particularly across the far
eastern plains.

Saturday will be a down day for thunderstorms, providing a much
needed break from severe thunderstorms of late. Upper trough
which is forcing today's convection will be east of the area
which ushers in some drier dew points and more subsident
conditions. There is another much weaker wave that glances by to
the northeast during the afternoon. Could see some isolated
thunderstorms across southern areas in the afternoon, but lower
CAPE suggests sub severe thunderstorms for now. Temperatures
will rebound around 5 degrees.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Northern stream wave sends a cold front through the plains Sat
night/Sun morning, bringing a renewed surge of easterly upslope
winds by afternoon. Instability is modest (CAPE 500-1000 J/KG)
most locations, though higher dewpoints over the far sern
corner of the plans may boost CAPE toward 1500 J/KG by late day.
Overall, expect an upturn in t-storm coverage over the ern
mountains and across the plains Sun afternoon/evening, with few
strong storms possible in the more unstable air mass over the
far southeast. Max temps Sunday to drift downward a few degf
versus Sat, as cold front ushers in a slightly cooler air mass
over the ern half of the area.

Northwest flow aloft persists Mon/Tue across the region, with
afternoon/evening storms both days, most numerous over the
eastern mountains and across the plains. Upper ridge then shifts
east by mid/late week, with flow become more wly over CO.
Moisture remains in place, and with several weak short waves
progged to migrate through the western U.S., daily
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. Temps will remain
seasonably warm through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KCOS and KPUB are under the risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms later today with large hail and damaging winds the
most likely risks at both terminals. For that reason have
included a Tempo group in both terminals for hail in the 21z to
01z timeframe. Could see brief IFR vis and cigs under the
heavier storm cores with hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Risk
should push east of the terminals after 01z with a low end
probability of some stratus or ground fog developing towards
10-11z. Given the high uncertainty, kept a SCT010 group in for
now as winds don't attain a persistent upslope direction to make
that scenario more probable. Saturday will see a return of drier
weather for both terminals.

KALS will remain VFR with thunderstorms likely to stay well off
to the north and east. Winds will increase out of the southwest
and gust up to 25 kts through the afternoon though wind
directions could get influenced by thunderstorm outflows outside
of the vicinity of the terminal from the north and east during
the late afternoon and early evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-071645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely again this afternoon and evening,
mainly from the I-25 Corridor eastward across the southeast
plains. Activity is expected to start around noon over the higher
terrain and Palmer Divide, but the most probable time window for
severe thunderstorms will be between 2 PM and 8 PM, and all modes
of severe weather will be possible. Large hail up to around 3
inches in diameter, and wind gusts of 60-80 mph are possible.
Tornadoes will be possible as well with the greatest risk east of
I-25. Flash flooding of urban areas and burn scars will be
possible if stronger storms impact those locations. Activity will
decrease along the I-25 corridor after 7 PM and will move out of
the southeast plains around Midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms will become weaker and more isolated in coverage on
Saturday, then a better chance for storms develops for Sunday
through much of next week. The greatest hazards from any thunderstorms
in this period are expected to be small hail, gusty outflow
winds, heavy rainfall and lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

31/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
200 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ065-069-072-073-076>078-062045-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
200 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT...
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND NORTHEASTERN SAGUACHE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
MDT...

At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Villa Grove, or 55 miles east of Gunnison, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Texas Creek, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, Villa Grove, and Hillside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for central
Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 10603 3838 10605 3845 10548 3818 10547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 267DEG 22KT 3830 10596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ094-062045-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
214 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Kim, or 36 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kim.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10352 3721 10357 3737 10327 3720 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 244DEG 27KT 3721 10347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
230 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ094-062100-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
230 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN BACA AND EAST CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kim, or 38 miles west of Springfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Baca and
east central Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 10342 3732 10345 3737 10340 3742 10308
      3740 10307 3738 10307 3738 10308 3731 10308
      3721 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 277DEG 12KT 3733 10331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ084-085-062115-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
244 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM MDT...

At 244 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southern Colorado Springs, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Colorado Springs, Schriever Space Force Base, Stratmoor,
Peterson Space Force Base, Cimarron Hills, and Security-Widefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for east central
Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 10483 3883 10484 3891 10451 3874 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 246DEG 11KT 3881 10474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
255 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ065-069-072-073-077-078-062130-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
255 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT...
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND EAST CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
MDT...

At 254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Villa Grove, or 48 miles north of Alamosa, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Villa Grove and Hillside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for central
Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 10598 3824 10601 3834 10552 3807 10548
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 262DEG 27KT 3817 10591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
316 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

COZ083-086-062145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
316 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT AND
NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 316 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florence, or 25 miles west of Pueblo, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Florence, Pueblo West, Pueblo Reservoir, and Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for central and
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10514 3837 10516 3848 10469 3827 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 258DEG 22KT 3831 10508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish