Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
550 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the
  southeast plains through this evening.

- Moisture begins to dwindle on Thursday with another day of
  cooler temperatures.

- Warmer and drier from Friday through the weekend into early
  next week, with just some very isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms possible over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Main forecast concerns this period are with thunderstorm
development along with the high likelihood for strong to severe
storms. Latest radar imagery has shown an uptick in thunderstorm
development over the last hour or two. While coverage has
remained isolated, intensity has quickly increased over the last
30 minutes. This is in response to lee troughing, ahead of
approaching shortwave energy rounding the base of the deep
trough in place. Do anticipate coverage to remain somewhat
limited over the next 1-2 hours, tied closer to the Pikes peak
region and Raton Mesa where backing flow is supporting deep
upslope. While some mixing has occurred, sufficient moisture
remains in place and is supporting CAPE values around 1000 j/kg,
with even some pockets of values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg
range. This instability along with strengthening mid flow and
increasing shear values around 35 to 45 kt will support the
development of strong to severe storms. Still anticipate the
strongest storms in these locations will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to 1.5 inches in diameter, and
locally heavy rainfall.

By early this evening, development across the Pikes Peak region
and Raton Mesa will continue but also expand in coverage over
much of the southeast plains. This will be in response to
additional energy pushing through and continued strengthening of
the low/mid level trough in place. This will support a quick
increase in ascent across the plains, with forecast soundings
really showing this rapid increase in omega this evening.
Additionally, increasing mid level flow with increasing/backing
surface flow will support additional increases in bulk shear.
Again, with this shear, instability, and now increased ascent,
expect the severe threat to continue well into the evening over
the plains. Instability and moisture are higher further to the
east and with bulk shear anticipated to increase, think
locations closer to the Colorado and Kansas border will have the
higher chances for wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range and
hail up to around 2 inches. Additionally, the above mentioned
strengthening flow will support a slight increase for a tornado
or two across the southeast plains. The severe threat will lower
by late this evening, though cyclonic flow in place will likely
support continued scattered shower and thunderstorm development
well into the overnight hours.

Upper long wave trough will continue east on Thursday, with
drying the trend. This will support little to no precip
development for most of the area, with the exception of some
isolated development over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Upper low departs and ridge builds on Friday, with warmer
temperatures and only some isolated/weak convection over the
higher terrain along the NM border. Main change to Friday's
forecast was to nudge max temps upward a few degf at many
locations, as NBM looked too cool given warmer more recent 00z
statistical guidance. Upper ridge flattens a bit over the
weekend, allowing leftover mid-level sub-tropical moisture to
drift into the state, which will in turn drive an increase in
mountain convection both Sat/Sun. Storm intensity/coverage
look weak/isolated through the period, with mainly lighting,
wind and light rain/sprinkles with most activity.

Ridge rebuilds over Rockies early next week, keeping warm
weather in place while moisture and thunderstorm chances
decrease. Some potential for a cold front by mid-week as short
wave energy crests the ridge and dives into the central U.S.,
though model spread on details/timing are rather large at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues at COS and PUB
through 02Z, with potential for brief MVFR conditions at
the terminals in heavy rain, as well as strong outflow
winds and possible small hail. Convective activity looks
to move east of the terminals after 02Z, with VFR conditions
prevailing through the rest of the taf period. Skies slowly
clear overnight with clear skies through the morning before
some clouds build over the mountains through the afternoon.
There is a low chance of showers in the vcnty of COS Thursday
afternoon, but too low to include in the taf attm.

VFR condtions to prevail at ALS over the next 24 hours.
Convective activity north of the terminal will wind down
by 02Z, but included a prob30 -tsra for mainly gusty winds
at the terminal. Skies clear overnight, with VFR conditions
and generally light winds expected at ALS through the day
Thursday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-181300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1120 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon into evening. Storms will form around mid-afternoon,
largely over the mountains/plains interface, Pikes Peak Region, and
Raton Mesa, pushing east-southeast through the remainder of the day.
Some storms are expected to become strong to severe. Over most of
the eastern plains, most common severe hazards will be outflow to 60
mph, hail to 1.5 inches in diameter, and locally heavy rainfall. The
highest chance for severe storms will be along and east of a Eads to
Kim line, and storms within this area will be capable of producing
hail up to 2 inches, outflow to 65 mph, heavy rain, and possibly an
isolated tornado or two.

Precipitation will weaken overnight, though some is expected to
linger into early Thursday morning, mainly across the southeast
plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm activity will become more isolated and weaker on
Thursday, with storms mainly across the plains during the day.
Gusty winds and lightning will be the main storm hazards.

Isolated thunderstorms will then be limited to mainly the
mountains Friday through Sunday, with the main storm threats
being lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
523 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ084-085-180000-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
523 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yoder, or 30 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10405 3884 10406 3889 10435 3901 10426
      3903 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 275DEG 11KT 3893 10427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
523 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ079-086-180000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
523 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Greenhorn Mountain, or 20 miles southwest of
Pueblo, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 10500 3813 10491 3815 10453 3790 10458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 278DEG 21KT 3808 10489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ081-085-180015-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
551 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM MDT...

At 551 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Security-Widefield, or 12 miles southeast of Colorado Springs, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Hanover, Stratmoor, Fort Carson,
Schriever Space Force Base, Security, Security-Widefield, Peterson
Space Force Base, and Cimarron Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 10491 3885 10479 3876 10421 3857 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 284DEG 19KT 3873 10464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
619 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ086-087-180045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
619 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM MDT...

At 619 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Walsenburg, or 25 miles south of Pueblo, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Huerfano and south central Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10473 3796 10474 3805 10448 3795 10434
      3782 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 260DEG 18KT 3790 10459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
625 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ074-087-180100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
625 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 625 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Veta, or 34 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving northeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta and eastern Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 10501 3762 10505 3767 10481 3745 10476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 239DEG 6KT 3753 10495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam