Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the
  southeast plains through this evening.

- Moisture begins to dwindle on Thursday with another day of
  cooler temperatures.

- Warmer and drier from Friday through the weekend into early
  next week, with just some very isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms possible over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Main forecast concerns this period are with thunderstorm
development along with the high likelihood for strong to severe
storms. Latest radar imagery has shown an uptick in thunderstorm
development over the last hour or two. While coverage has
remained isolated, intensity has quickly increased over the last
30 minutes. This is in response to lee troughing, ahead of
approaching shortwave energy rounding the base of the deep
trough in place. Do anticipate coverage to remain somewhat
limited over the next 1-2 hours, tied closer to the Pikes peak
region and Raton Mesa where backing flow is supporting deep
upslope. While some mixing has occurred, sufficient moisture
remains in place and is supporting CAPE values around 1000 j/kg,
with even some pockets of values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg
range. This instability along with strengthening mid flow and
increasing shear values around 35 to 45 kt will support the
development of strong to severe storms. Still anticipate the
strongest storms in these locations will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to 1.5 inches in diameter, and
locally heavy rainfall.

By early this evening, development across the Pikes Peak region
and Raton Mesa will continue but also expand in coverage over
much of the southeast plains. This will be in response to
additional energy pushing through and continued strengthening of
the low/mid level trough in place. This will support a quick
increase in ascent across the plains, with forecast soundings
really showing this rapid increase in omega this evening.
Additionally, increasing mid level flow with increasing/backing
surface flow will support additional increases in bulk shear.
Again, with this shear, instability, and now increased ascent,
expect the severe threat to continue well into the evening over
the plains. Instability and moisture are higher further to the
east and with bulk shear anticipated to increase, think
locations closer to the Colorado and Kansas border will have the
higher chances for wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range and
hail up to around 2 inches. Additionally, the above mentioned
strengthening flow will support a slight increase for a tornado
or two across the southeast plains. The severe threat will lower
by late this evening, though cyclonic flow in place will likely
support continued scattered shower and thunderstorm development
well into the overnight hours.

Upper long wave trough will continue east on Thursday, with
drying the trend. This will support little to no precip
development for most of the area, with the exception of some
isolated development over the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Upper low departs and ridge builds on Friday, with warmer
temperatures and only some isolated/weak convection over the
higher terrain along the NM border. Main change to Friday's
forecast was to nudge max temps upward a few degf at many
locations, as NBM looked too cool given warmer more recent 00z
statistical guidance. Upper ridge flattens a bit over the
weekend, allowing leftover mid-level sub-tropical moisture to
drift into the state, which will in turn drive an increase in
mountain convection both Sat/Sun. Storm intensity/coverage
look weak/isolated through the period, with mainly lighting,
wind and light rain/sprinkles with most activity.

Ridge rebuilds over Rockies early next week, keeping warm
weather in place while moisture and thunderstorm chances
decrease. Some potential for a cold front by mid-week as short
wave energy crests the ridge and dives into the central U.S.,
though model spread on details/timing are rather large at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Active first half of the period anticipated mainly over COS and
PUB, beginning this afternoon and lasting into the evening. The
main concern will be thunderstorm development, especially
across COS. Relatively quiet at this time though, with light
winds and VFR conditions in place. This will continue for ALS
today and into tomorrow, as precip and ceiling development
likely to remain over the plains.

Will see shower and thunderstorm development occur over the
higher terrain by early afternoon, then begin spilling into the
I-25 corridor by the mid afternoon time frame. This will impact
COS first and did go ahead and speed up the timing of this
shower/thunderstorm development. Given a higher likelihood of
occurrence at COS, did adjust the TAF, adding a TEMPO group this
afternoon. Could see the need to indicate higher confidence,
possibly adding more prevailing conditions later. For PUB, did
not make any changes to the PROB30 group given some uncertainty
with timing and how this precip may evolve later today into the
evening in this location. Do feel that shower and thunderstorm
will remain possible, but didn't have confidence to make any
changes at this time. Lastly, kept precip in the TAFs through
this evening, but it's possible that precip may continue well
into the overnight hours. Confidence on this is low at this
time, and so have opted to add any additional rain or thunder
mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-181300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1120 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon into evening. Storms will form around mid-afternoon,
largely over the mountains/plains interface, Pikes Peak Region, and
Raton Mesa, pushing east-southeast through the remainder of the day.
Some storms are expected to become strong to severe. Over most of
the eastern plains, most common severe hazards will be outflow to 60
mph, hail to 1.5 inches in diameter, and locally heavy rainfall. The
highest chance for severe storms will be along and east of a Eads to
Kim line, and storms within this area will be capable of producing
hail up to 2 inches, outflow to 65 mph, heavy rain, and possibly an
isolated tornado or two.

Precipitation will weaken overnight, though some is expected to
linger into early Thursday morning, mainly across the southeast
plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm activity will become more isolated and weaker on
Thursday, with storms mainly across the plains during the day.
Gusty winds and lightning will be the main storm hazards.

Isolated thunderstorms will then be limited to mainly the
mountains Friday through Sunday, with the main storm threats
being lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ084-172230-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
418 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Simla, or 26 miles southwest of Limon, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern El Paso
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10406 3896 10405 3900 10414 3905 10413
      3906 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 281DEG 13KT 3901 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ085-172245-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
420 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Schriever Space Force Base, or 17 miles east of Colorado Springs,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Schriever Space Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 10460 3880 10458 3883 10419 3860 10425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 281DEG 15KT 3875 10451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
454 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ081-082-085-172330-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
454 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 454 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pikes Peak, or 10 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, Green Mountain Falls,
Pikes Peak, Chipita Park, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
central and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 10509 3895 10501 3893 10487 3879 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 281DEG 11KT 3887 10502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
456 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ085-172330-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
456 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Truckton, or 29 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truckton and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 10406 3871 10434 3880 10433 3885 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 271DEG 17KT 3875 10428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

COZ081-084-085-180000-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
509 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

At 509 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Colorado Springs, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, Schriever Space Force Base,
Falcon, Cimarron Hills, and Peterson Space Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 10492 3891 10490 3895 10444 3874 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 275DEG 13KT 3887 10483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish