Severe Thunderstorm Warning 374, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, storms, and flash flooding concerns persist Wednesday as
temperatures increase.

- Wet, active weather will persist through the rest of the week. A
few stronger to severe storms will be possible each afternoon.

- Flooding chances decrease through the weekend, with the
  gradual return of warmer, drier weather appearing more and
  more likely by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms have fired over the mountains, slowly
pushing to the east. Storms don't look particularly strong, though
some higher rain-rates are popping up on radar. SPC Mesoanalysis
currently shows 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the plains, but shear is
still somewhat lacking at 20 knots or less.

Rest of This Afternoon...

With a little bit of clearing over the plains, daytime heating may
just allow for a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, though
the severe threat is still low. A few higher cores could potentially
drop some outflow over 40 mph along with some small hail. Will have
to see how downsloping deteriorates storms as we move later in the
day, but current expectation is for some embedded thunder within
larger-scale moderate to heavy rainfall into this evening.

Tonight-Wednesday...

Upper-level ridge and moist west-southwest flow aloft will remain in
place, with some scattered showers lingering across our area into
Wednesday morning. Monsoon moisture will give us a repeat kind of
day, with showers and thunderstorms across the area. Precipitation
will quickly spread across the higher terrain by late morning,
pushing east throughout the remainder of the day. With better
westerly steering flow setting in aloft, storms are more likely to
make it east of the terrain, increasing chances for storms over the
plains. Even so, chances for strong to severe storms are not
particularly high due to a general lack of shear and synoptic
forcing. Main impact concerns will once again be localized flash
flooding, though lightning, gusty winds, and some small hail will
all be possible as well in the late afternoon hours. While an
isolated stronger storm are two will be possible, severe impacts are
not likely. Meanwhile, temperatures for Wednesday will see a
noticeable increase from today, with widespread 80s to near-90
across the eastern plains, while the valleys remain in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Wednesday Night and Thursday..

Showers and thunderstorms look to linger into the evening hours for
portions of our plains, coming to an end over much of the area
through the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures remain
mild heading into Thursday morning thanks to abundant cloud cover,
with overnight lows Wednesday night only dipping down into the upper
50s and low 60s on the plains. Thursday looks to be much the same as
Wednesday, with westerly flow aloft and continued moist
southeasterly flow at the surface, and shortwave energy traversing
over us through the ridge. This will mean continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms, along with an increased chances for
strong to severe thunderstorms as well. PWATs look be over/near 1
inch for Thursday as well, which will also bring in another round of
flash flood potential for Thursday. Daytime highs look to be
slightly cooler than normal, with much of our plains warming into
the low to mid 80s, and our mountain valleys warming into the 70s.

Friday Onwards..

PWATs begin to decrease for Friday and Saturday as the moisture
plume gets shoved off to our south incrementally. Daily
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms look to continue, though
chances for flash flooding will likely begin to decrease through
this period. Daytime high temperatures look to remain much the same
and slightly cooler than normal, with highs topping out in the low
to mid 80s on the plains for both Friday and Saturday. From Sunday
onwards, models continue to point towards a transition to a more
typical pattern for this time of year, with potentially warmer and
drier weather returning through the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

KALS: Showers and storms will spread over the mountains early this
afternoon, moving over the valley a bit later. Passing showers will
bring MVFR cigs, with a chance of storms moving over the terminal
and lowering things to IFR for brief periods. These conditions will
persist on and off through the evening, with scattered shower
coverage. Have included several PROB30 groups based on confidence in
coverage and impacts over the terminal. Low clouds and south winds
will generally persist into Wednesday.

KCOS and KPUB: Low clouds and patchy mist/fog will linger into the
early afternoon. Visibility will waver for a few more hours at KPUB
before the mist fully dissipates, but low IFR-LIFR cigs will persist
at both terminals. Showers and storms will pass through late this
afternoon into this evening, with rain showers in the area until
close to 05-06Z or so. Overnight, once the rain dissipates, low
clouds and patchy fog will linger well into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-271730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
across much of the area, though will initially develop along the
higher terrain before pushing across the valleys and plains by mid
to late evening. Localized flash flooding will be possible with any
thunderstorm, especially across areas that have repeated rounds of
rain over the past few days. Otherwise, gusty outflow winds up to 40
mph and lightning will be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across the area for
the Wednesday through Monday timeframe. Strong to severe storms
and flash flooding will be possible, mainly for Wednesday through
Friday. Several inches of rain will be possible across much of the
area over the next few days, which may lead to flash flooding in
areas the are susceptible, or areas that see back to back rain
events.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/EHR

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     Rain             7 ESE Texas Creek       38.37N 105.46W
08/26/2025  M1.23 Inch       Fremont            CO   Trained Spotter

            Storm total accumulation overnight.

0821 AM     Rain             2 NNE Monument          39.12N 104.86W
08/26/2025  M3.27 Inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

            Storm total accumulation overnight.

0906 AM     Rain             2 NW Colorado Springs   38.85N 104.85W
08/26/2025  M1.66 Inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

COZ074-075-087-088-262100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
223 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND WEST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 222 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spanish Peaks, or 23 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulnare.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 10491 3738 10493 3747 10474 3728 10466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 256DEG 11KT 3736 10486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

COZ081-084-262130-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
247 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 246 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodland Park, or 22 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park, Palmer Lake, Green Mountain Falls, Crystola, and
Chipita Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 10503 3905 10521 3913 10515 3913 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 301DEG 14KT 3908 10510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Moore