Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low probability of thunderstorms developing over the eastern plains
  this evening. If a storm develops, severe storms are
  expected.

- Very hot through next week, but thunderstorm chances decrease

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For a few hours tonight after 6PM there is a low chance for severe
thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. However, model soundings
show a stout cap aloft, which to me seems like it'll inhibit any
convection from developing, which is further supported by latest
model guidance. If they do develop, the main hazards will be 1-2"
hail, 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.

Tomorrow the upper level ridge in place over the desert southwest
will strengthen and amplify the ridge over Colorado, which really
limits the flow aloft and brings in very dry air. All of which leads
to hotter temperatures and drier conditions than we've been
experiencing over the past few weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper ridge remains in place and strengthens
through midweek, producing even hotter temps with a dry forecast for
Tue, and isolated mt convection for Wed. Expect maximum temps to
quickly climb into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s
to around 100F for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...The extended procedure wants to keep hot
conditions in place into the upcoming weekend, with afternoon
readings at or above seasonal normals. The upper ridge begins to
flatten out, with multiple shortwaves to the north allowed to dip
south into WY and CO. Afternoon and evening isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the higher terrain Thu
and Fri, then more areal coverage of scattered convection is
expected for Sat as some activity spills over onto the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through the
next 24 hours. Winds will weaken overnight, with southeast gusts
20-25 knots expected Monday afternoon and evening at KCOS and
KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-041745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1143 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms east of
a La Junta to Kim line this afternoon and evening. Right now, I do
not expected thunderstorms to develop, but if they do the
thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail 2 inches in
diameter, damaging winds near 60 mph and an isolated tornado may
be possible. Thunderstorm chances diminish after 6PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Drier, hotter conditions move into the region starting Monday.
Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for the higher terrain on Monday and Wednesday, then
convection chances increase for the mountains Thursday and Friday.
Greater areal coverage of scattered convection is expected on
Saturday as activity spills onto the eastern plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

SKELLY/EHR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
406 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

COZ099-032230-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
406 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...Thunderstorms starting to develop in Baca county...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was indicating convection starting to
develop 7 miles southwest of Vilas, or 9 miles southeast of
Springfield, moving south at 10 mph.

The environment over Baca county is very unstable. The potential
exist for this storm to continue to intensify and become severe.
Folks in Baca county should be alert for the potential of rapidly
changing weather conditions this afternoon. If this storm should
intensify, it could produce damaging winds, large hail and possibly
a tornado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 10266 3736 10243 3712 10235 3709 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 354DEG 9KT 3729 10254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hodanish