Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible through the
  rest of today and into this evening.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible for Saturday and
  Sunday as well, with higher moisture content and higher
  chances for severe being shunted off to our eastern plains.

- Our trend for warmer and drier weather is still on track for
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Currently..

As of 2PM, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move
across the high country, with a few storms beginning to make their
way onto the plains across the southern I-25 corridor. Storms are
producing lots of lightning, and somewhat less rainfall than what
we've seen in the past several days. Temperatures are hovering
between 70s on the northern and southern ends of the I-25 corridor
to 80s for the rest of the plains. Dewpoints are still mostly in the
50s, with Springfield coming in at 60F for a dewpoint this hour. SPC
mesoanalysis has 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and 20kt of bulk shear over the I-
25 corridor this hour, where storms are beginning to come off the
mountains.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

SPC mesoanalysis has 35-40kt of bulk shear still analyzed across the
plains for the next 6 hours as storms are expected to continue to
push eastwards, along with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE. Kiowa COunty will
see the highest risk for severe storms this evening, and is outlined
by the SPC for a slight risk. A marginal risk is still expected
elsewhere, with large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding still
possible with all storms today. Though the flash flooding threat has
diminished somewhat as PWATs and QPF have decreased and drier air
has begun to move in from the west, areas that have seen ample
rainfall over the past several days will once again be at risk for
flooding today, as storms will still exhibit intense rainfall rates
at times. Area burn scars, low lying areas, urban centers, and other
flood prone areas such as the Chalk Cliffs will also be at risk.
Convection looks to mostly push east of the I-25 corridor by around
6-7PM, and east into Kansas by around midnight or so at the latest.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than
normal again, with clearing behind today's convection and drier air
moving in at the low levels. This will mean lows in the 40s again
for mountain valleys, and 50s to low 60s on the plains.

Tomorrow..

The Monsoon plume continues to bring us active weather for our
Saturday, though the bulk of its moisture does start to get shunted
off to the east by tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has much of Kiowa,
Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties outlined in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, which lines up well with
where shortwave energy and highest forecast shear amounts look to
overlap with greatest instability tomorrow afternoon. This area will
see chances for large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and
possibly one or tornadoes as well. Severe winds look to be highest
likelihood risk for tomorrow across our far eastern plains, especially
given that drier air is beginning to really infiltrate from the west
from the lower levels. Forecast soundings for tomorrow afternoon
show inverted V profiles, and DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/Kg.
Though our mountain adjacent plains and the I-25 corridor are not
outlooked for tomorrow, gusty outflow winds will be possible for
these areas as well as any storms that develop here will also be
high based. Our temperatures warm up a few degrees heading into our
Saturday as well, with much of our plains warming into the upper 80s
and low 90s, and our mountain valleys warming into the low and mid
80s. These temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than
today for most locations, but still very near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Saturday...Broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the Desert SW, with weaker west-northwest flow aloft, and warm
southerly flow continuing at the surface. Models are indicating some
drying taking place from west to east, and forecast dewpoints point
to the llvl moisture pool shrinking and retreating back to the
eastern border. Taking a look at model CAPE, anywhere from 1800-2300
j/kg of CAPE will reside across the far eastern plains which
corresponds well with predicted dewpoints. Add to this bulk shear of
40-45 kts and another upper disturbance crossing the Rockies through
the day, and all indications point to increasing severe wx
potential. SPC has the eastern plains from approx Crowley and Otero
counties and eastward within a Marginal area for severe wx, and
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties within a Slight. WPC has also
included the far eastern plains within a Marginal area for excessive
rainfall, taking into account the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall from slow-moving storms. As has been mentioned before, with
multiple days of spotty moderate to heavy rainfall, keep track of
those areas that are developing saturated ground as that will be the
precursor for potential flooding issues. Plan on high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four
Corners region starting Sunday, with the ridge axis situated over NM
and CO. This will provide for dry and very warm conditions with
temps climbing back up to normal to slightly above normal. As for
precip chances, isolated at best and mainly tied to the higher
terrain, though models are hinting at dryline interactions that
could try and spill back into Colorado. As for temps, look for highs
in the 80s for the high valleys all three days. Across the plains,
temps will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday and Monday,
then 90s to around 100F for Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge starts to flatten and spread to
the east, opening the door for northern upper disturbances to sneak
back down into Colorado and help off more convection. Though temps
are expected at this time to remain very hot, precip chances
increase to scattered for the higher terrain both days, with
isolated convection developing across the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 506 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TSRA has cleared to the east of the terminals with clearing
skies expected overnight for KALS, KCOS and KPUB. Gusty outflow
dominated winds will become light overnight. Another round of
afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon,
particularly at KCOS and KPUB. Have introduced a PROB30 for
-TSRA at KCOS and KPUB where winds will likely become dominated
 by outflows. A little more uncertainty exists for -TSRA at the
 KALS so will limit impacts to a timed wind shift and VCSH for
 now.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-021745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1133 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm are expected to
develop over the higher terrain this afternoon. Storms will spread
east across the high mountain valleys and the immediate adjacent
plains through the late afternoon and out across the far southeast
plains through the evening. Storms will be capable of producing
heavy rain, with localized flash flooding possible across area burn
scars, urban areas and areas where soils have become saturated from
previous days of rain. Other storm threats include gusty winds up to
45 mph, frequent lightning and small hail, with one or two storms
along and east of the I-25 Corridor capable of producing strong
winds up to 60 mph and large hail up the size of quarters. One or
two landspouts may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms with potentially heavy rainfall are forecast
Saturday across the eastern plains, with the main concerns being
lightning and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding will be possible,
especially in areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall, urban
areas and burn scars. There is the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop across the far eastern plains, closer to
the eastern border, into the evening. The main threats from these
stronger storms will be gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph and large
hail.

Drier, hotter conditions move into the region starting Sunday.
Mountain areas could see a few daily afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

EHR/27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

COZ084-012215-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
341 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 341 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 25 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10429 3903 10452 3908 10482 3913 10476
      3913 10424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 259DEG 26KT 3912 10451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

COZ074-088-012230-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
355 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 355 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Boncarbo, or 18 miles west of Trinidad, moving south at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 10486 3728 10468 3714 10474 3719 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 014DEG 7KT 3723 10483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

COZ085-086-089-093-012245-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
411 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
EL PASO...WEST CENTRAL CROWLEY AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH
445 PM MDT...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty showers along a line
extending from near Hanover to near Avondale to 17 miles south of
Blende. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Fowler, Boone, Avondale, Pueblo
Depot, and Hanover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 10402 3785 10416 3797 10461 3820 10447
      3857 10451 3866 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 276DEG 24KT 3857 10445 3819 10439 3800 10446

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

COZ089-093-020000-
Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
528 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OTERO AND SOUTHEASTERN
CROWLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Timpas, or 13 miles west of La Junta, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, Rocky Ford, Swink, and Timpas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 10383 3787 10402 3808 10378 3812 10360
      3774 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 215DEG 20KT 3794 10378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam