Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely late this afternoon into this evening
  across the I-25 corridor and plains, with strong winds, large
  hail and locally heavy rainfall the primary hazards.

- Storms likely again Thursday with heavy rainfall possible, while
  severe threat looks lower.

- Best chance of precip during the extended period will be over the
  mtns and valleys.

- Temps generally 4 to 8 degrees above normal region-wide in the
  extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Storms developing on schedule this afternoon, as deep instability
pools along and east of the mountains, where CAPE values have risen
into the 1000-2000 J/KG range. Deep layer shear has increased as
well, as surface winds have turned sely and strengthened, with 0-6km
values in the 40-45 kt range. With upper forcing provided by
trailing end of central plains short wave and right rear quad of
upper jet exiting the Rockies, expect a risk of severe storms and
local flash flooding from late afternoon into the evening, starting
first in El Paso County, then expanding south and east by evening.
Particularly concerned about severe storms/heavy rain in the Ark
Valley from Pueblo (21z t/td 86f/58f) eastward, where upper 50
to mid 60 dewpoints are pooling. Severe watch just issued for
all I-25 corridor/eastern plains, running til 04z, as storms
will likely linger past sunset on the plains given amount of
instability present, before activity fades away after midnight.

Thursday, plentiful moisture in place again, and expect fairly
widespread afternoon convection over the mountains, spreading across
the plains from late afternoon into the evening. While instability
in the 1k-2k J/KG range will support strong storms, main ingredient
lacking for severe storms will be wind shear, as 0-6km bulk shear
falls into the 15-25 kt range as both low level sely and mid level
wly winds weaken. Main threat Thu will be locally heavy rain/flash
flooding, with at least some data pointing toward the srn
Sangres/Raton Pass area having the greatest chance of heavy rain.
May need a Flood Watch at some point for some srn zones, though will
hold off this cycle and let later shifts evaluate today's heavy
rainfall before issuing anything. Clouds/precip will hold max temps
down, with max temps well below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Generally for this long term period, a large broad area of high
pressure at mid levels will continue over the central and eastern
part of the CONUS while a broad area of lower pressure will continue
just off the west coast. Zonal flow will continue north of these
centers of high and low pressure across the Canadian/US border.
Occasional subtle disturbances will move through this zonal
flow allowing meager frontal intrusions to move across the
region. Additionally, with the low off the west coast and the
higher pressure over the central CONUS, a modest monsoon pattern
will continue over the SW CONUS during this period.

With the above pattern in place, the overall best chance of precip
over the region this week into next weekend will be over the mtns
and valleys. Temps overall will be on a slow warming trend this
weekend into early next week, then a slight cooling by mid week next
week. The overall best chance of widespread monsoon moisture over
the higher terrain will be Friday, Saturday and into Sunday with
more scattered pops over the higher terrain later in the period.
\/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Tsra likely at all taf sites the afternoon/early this evening
from 22z-02z, with vcsh lingering at KPUB and KCOS potentially
as late as 05z. Large hail (quarter to half dollar size) and
strong winds (gusts 50kts plus) possible with storms at KPUB
and KCOS, while main hazard with storms at KALS will be gusty
outflow winds (gusts 40-50 kts). Low potential for MVFR/brief
IFR stratus/fog at KCOS and KPUB 09z-15z Thu morning,
especially if significant precip occurs Wed night. Won't add to
the taf at this point, and will await convective developments
before including.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-171745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
mountains by mid afternoon, and push across the valleys and plains
through mid to late evening. Some storms along the I-25 corridor
and across the plains are expected to become strong to severe,
with damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to 2 inches in
diameter, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. In addition
to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rain capable of
producing localized flash flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all of the
region during the afternoon hours of Thursday through the weekend.
The main concerns these days will be flash flooding, especially
in the mountains. Storms will be less in coverage early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

10/SIMCOE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
417 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

COZ084-085-162300-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
417 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Peyton to near Calhan.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah, and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 10406 3893 10453 3913 10453 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 262DEG 27KT 3913 10436 3900 10437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

COZ077>080-083-086-162315-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
443 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO...
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...EASTERN CUSTER AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 443 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Florence, or 31 miles west of Pueblo, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Penrose, Pueblo West, Beulah, Wetmore, San Isabel, Colorado
City, and Oak Ridge Burn Scar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 10476 3796 10532 3832 10532 3845 10486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 261DEG 16KT 3822 10520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KTS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     Hail             2 NNE Fountain          38.72N 104.70W
07/16/2025  M1.50 Inch       El Paso            CO   NWS Employee

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Hail             3 W Fountain            38.68N 104.76W
07/16/2025  E1.00 Inch       El Paso            CO   Other Federal

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

COZ079-086-170000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
528 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Pueblo Reservoir, or 17 miles southwest of Pueblo,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Pueblo, Salt Creek, Rye, and Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 10494 3820 10495 3825 10458 3797 10462
      3791 10468 3798 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 257DEG 15KT 3807 10482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
546 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

COZ084-085-170030-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
546 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 545 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 20 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10420 3888 10454 3901 10462 3913 10443
      3913 10432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 239DEG 14KT 3899 10450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rodriguez