Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Damaging winds expected with thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening over the plains.

- Cooler with thunderstorms tomorrow, especially late afternoon
  into evening hours; some strong.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
  expected for the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Main concern today is potential for damaging winds with thunderstorm
activity over the plains, Point soundings showing mixing all the way
up to 500 mb and a rather impressive short wave will cross the
region this afternoon. This lift combined with a very well mixed BL
up ot 500 mb will allow for plenty of DCAPE which will likely
produce very strong surface winds over the plains this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts to 60 to 75 mph with gusts potential to 90 mph
cant be ruled out. Most of CO Plains outlooked with SPC hatched wind
area (>75 mph) over most of plains.

Activity should push relatively quickly out of the region by early
to mid evening with clearing skies tonight.

Red Flag conditions will continue over the mtns/valleys the rest of
today into this evening.

A cool front will cross the plains late this evening into the early
morning hours, brining increasing LLVL moisture to the region.

Tomorrow...Thunderstorms will be slow to start tomorrow, with the
brunt of the activity expected staring very late tomorrow afternoon
and then pushing out onto the plains during the evening hours.
Storms tomorrow will have the potential to be on the stronger side
once again, but more importantly, will have the potential to bring
more beneficial rain to the region given the more favorable moist
low level environment.

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow across the region with highs
in the 80s and 90s plains.

Tomorrow evening a line of storms will move across the plains
brining the potential of strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain,
marginally severe hail and lightning to the lower elevations. Storms
will likely linger into the overnight hours tomorrow. \/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

riday Night - Wednesday: For the long term period, active is still
expected each day, with afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Messy westerly to northerly flow will be in place over the
region as a ridge of high pressure sits across the southwest US.
While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing will be in
place each day, along with a brief period of heightened forcing from
a frontal passage late Friday. These forcing mechanisms, along with
moisture in place each day, will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to blossom each afternoon and persist into the evening
hours. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected to
remain along the mountains, where forcing will greatest. Like most
summer days, a strong thunderstorms or two can't be ruled out, with
frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief
periods of heavy rain the most likely hazards from any stronger
storms. Beyond all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and
evening cloud cover are anticipated through this timeframe. As for
temperatures, Saturday is expected to be the coolest day, with below
seasonal temperatures anticipated thanks to the aforementioned cold
frontal passage late Friday. Then for the rest of the period,
near seasonal temperatures return for south central and
southeastern Colorado, though there are hints at another
possible cold front passage during the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Main concern today is downburst winds from virga/-tsra.
Downburst has just occurred vicinity of KPUB as I write with
60-70 mph winds verified just west of weather office. This
downburst/strong wind threat will be over the KCOS/KPUB area
through the early and mid afternoon time period as a wx
disturbance moves through.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with diurnal wind flow outside
of the virga/tsra activity.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-223-
224.

&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH/MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1052 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-111700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1052 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Several severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds of 75 to
90 mph are expected to occur later this afternoon and early
eveningover the far eastern plains.

Showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain will spread
east into the I-25 corridor by early afternoon.  The main
thunderstorm risks along the I-25 corridor will be wind gusts to
50 to 60 mph, along with small hail and lightning.  As storms
progress eastward this afternoon and evening, the environment will
become more favorable for severe storms, and these storms over
the far eastern plains will have the capability to produce winds
between 75 to 90 mph. The greatest risk of these dangerous winds
will be between 3 pm and 7 pm.  People who live over the far
eastern plains, especially east of a line from La Junta to Kim,
should prepare for the potential of damaging winds this afternoon
and evening.

Dangerous fire weather conditions will exist today along the
Continental Divide and San Luis Valley, with gusty northwest winds
and low humidity values. Avoid activities that could spark a
fire.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected Friday through Wednesday. Friday has the highest chances
of stronger storms, particularly across the eastern plains, with
strong outflow winds around 60 mph the primary hazard. Otherwise,
the most likely hazards with any more organized storms will be
gusty outflow winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and brief
periods of heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

COZ081>085-102145-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
304 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER AND WESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
MDT...

At 304 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cascade to near Victor. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Fountain, Woodland Park, Air Force Academy, Manitou
Springs, Green Mountain Falls, Victor, Pikes Peak, Crystola,
Security, Security-Widefield, Falcon, Stratmoor, Chipita Park, Fort
Carson, Schriever Space Force Base, Cimarron Hills, Peterson Space
Force Base, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 10435 3853 10465 3863 10520 3903 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 278DEG 29KT 3891 10493 3869 10510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
317 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

COZ086-102145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
317 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Blende, or 17 miles south of Pueblo Airport, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Pueblo
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 10459 3815 10451 3807 10407 3781 10419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 290DEG 22KT 3804 10447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

COZ089-102145-
Crowley County CO-
320 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

At 320 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Boone, or 26 miles east of Pueblo Airport, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ordway and Sugar City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3832 10405 3849 10405 3849 10360 3816 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 290DEG 21KT 3839 10402

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

COZ084-085-102200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM MDT...

At 325 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Black Forest, or 19 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Colorado Springs, Peyton, and Black Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10433 3894 10472 3913 10474 3913 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 269DEG 26KT 3905 10459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rodriguez