Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
705 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible across the southeast plains
  this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday.

- Warmer and drier weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Hot and breezy Thursday with cooler and and more unsettled
  weather for Friday into the early weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently...High pressure aloft remains across the Desert SW and the
southern US, while an upper disturbance crosses the northern
Rockies. LLVL moisture that was in place across the eastern plains
this morning has persisted, providing the fuel for convection firing
over the higher terrain and Palmer Divide this afternoon. Temps have
warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys, and 80s
to around 90F for the plains as of 1 PM.

Tonight...Just like yesterday, an upper disturbance crossing the
northern Rockies is providing the trigger to tap into available
moisture and instability for stronger to severe storms to develop
across the plains this afternoon and evening, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of CO and WY until 8
PM. The southern edge of this watch box dips down across El Paso and
Kiowa counties, and though much of the severe activity is expected
to remain north of the Palmer Divide, a few severe storms will be
possible, with the main threats expected to be strong outflow gusts
of 60 to possibly 70 mph, and hail up to around an inch in diameter.
Hi-res models are indicating 1600-2000j/kg of CAPE across much
of the SE plains, and 30-40 kts of bulk shear with an additional
spin boost off of the Palmer. Though there are only the two
counties included within the watch, the potential exists for an
active night with strong storms likely across much of the
plains. Convection is expected to linger late and perhaps into
the overnight hours, just like last night. Further west, much
drier air is in place (30s vs 50s) so while isolated convection
has developed, nothing too strong is anticipated and activity
should die down soon after sunset when heating ends. Plan on
overnight low temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Monday...Tomorrow looks like it could be another busy day, and will
heavily depend on how much llvl moisture gets pushed back towards
the mountains due to outflow tonight, and how much cloud cover there
is that could inhibit heating. Indications on how busy it could be
will likely be known by 11 AM. SPC has dropped the Slight area for
severe weather down across eastern CO once again, and WPC has
covered pretty much all of eastern CO with a Marginal for excessive
rainfall. Look for high temps tomorrow in the 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to around 90F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high across the Four Corners region remains progged to
build into south central Colorado Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing a warming and drying trend to all of south central and
southeast Colorado. While there looks to be enough residual
moisture for isolated to scattered higher based showers and
storms over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday, Wednesday
looks to be mainly dry across the area with the upper high
overhead. At to slightly above seasonal temperatures areawide on
Tuesday warm into the mid 90s to lower 100s across the plains
on Wednesday, with 70s and 80s expected across the higher
terrain and upper 80s to lower 90s across the high mountain
valleys.

For Thursday and beyond, latest models are in general agreement of
the upper high being shunted south and east by several embedded
waves translating through the faster zonal flow across the Northern
Tier. Ahead of the first passing wave on Thursday, will bring
breezy westerly winds and very warm temperatures leading to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions across portions
of the area. This passing system sends a cold front across the
area leading to cooler, closer to seasonal temperatures, and
more unsettled weather once again for Friday and into the early
weekend, as available moisture increases across the region once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

KALS: VFR through 24 hours with diurnally-driven winds. Winds will
gusts to around 20 knots for a few more hours this evening before
weakening overnight. Mid-level clouds will linger through Monday.

KCOS: Strong to severe thunderstorms are rolling across the area as
of 23Z, and should continue off and on in the area through about
02Z. After a brief lull in activity, more showers and storms are
expected to move in and out of the area near the terminal between 03-
06Z. Coverage will be spotty, by confidence for activity over the
terminal has increased. Storms will produce strong outflow winds,
MVFR cigs, and possibly brief periods of heavy rain and lowered vis.
The area should dry out after 06Z, but some low clouds in the MVFR
range should linger in the early morning hours for Monday. More
showers and storms will be possible in the area Monday afternoon.

KPUB: Gusty southeast winds will linger at the terminal into this
evening, along with a low but non-zero chance for showers and
thunderstorms overhead. Coverage will be scattered enough to leave
as PROB30 for now, but any storms near the area will produce gusty
outflow winds 20-30 knots, or possible stronger with any severe
storms. If a storm does move over the terminal, MVFR cigs, briefly
lowered vis, and brief periods of heavy rain will be possible.
Showers will leave the area after 06Z. Some low clouds may set in
early Monday morning, leaving conditions at MVFR for a few
hours before the clouds mix out. Gusty southeast winds resume
Monday afternoon, and though some showers may be expected in
the area, confidence in coverage is too low to include in this
round of TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-071300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1131 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today, with storms
developing along the Palmer Divide and southeast mountains during
the early afternoon, before pushing into a more unstable atmosphere
across the southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening.
One or two severe storms, capable of producing strong and damaging
winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail up to the size of quarters will be
possible. The best chances of severe storms will be generally east
of a line from El Paso County to Pueblo to Springfield. Heavy
rainfall will also be possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected once
again on Monday, with storms starting over and near the higher
terrain, before moving into a more unstable atmosphere across the
southeast plains through the late afternoon and evening, where a
few strong to severe storms capable of producing strong winds up
to 60 and hail up to the size of quarters, will again be
possible. All thunderstorms will be capable of producing small
hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning and periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall.

Storms will become weaker and more isolated Tuesday through Thursday,
with temperatures warming back to above seasonal norms, ahead of
a passing cold which will bring cooler temperatures and increased
chances for daily thunderstorms for Friday into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/23

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>