Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Pueblo, CO

701 
WWUS85 KPUB 132129
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

COZ224-140100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250214T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
229 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
224...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* IMPACTS...Fires will catch and spread quickly. Avoid actions 
  which could start a wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

539 
WWUS85 KPUB 140054
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
554 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2025


COZ224-140200-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250214T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
554 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Winds will decrease across the warned area this evening as
relative humidity recovers overnight, bringing an end to critical
fire weather conditions.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers over and near the eastern mtns this evening with
  clearing skies and very cold overnight temperatures.

- Slow warming on Thursday, with spotty critical fire weather
  conditions across the San Luis Valley.

- Impactful snow for the higher elevations (especially the San
  Juans) Thursday night through Saturday morning.

- Gusty winds possible Friday afternoon mainly for the higher
  elevations and far southeast mountains.

- Another impactful event possible early to mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Quick update to add zone 58 (Eastern Lake County) to Winter
Storm Watch. Also made some minor adjustments to temps/winds for
this evening. Still some flurries around so left some small pops
in place for a few areas, though any accumulations will be minor
at best.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate
west to northwest flow in place across the Rockies, with another
embedded short wave translating through the flow across the Northern
Rockies at this time. In response, starting to see a few echoes
across the northern and central mtns this afternoon, with low level
upslope helping to develop clouds and a few flurries along the
lower eastern slopes, especially in the Pikes Peak region.

For tonight and Thursday...Upper trough pushes east with moderate
and dry northwest flow developing through early Thursday morning.
Latest high res guidance supports light snow continuing across
the central mtns, with local accumulations up to an inch expected
across the higher terrain north of Cottonwood Pass. Weak uvv and
continued upslope flow will keep the chances of light snow/flurries
over and near the eastern mtns, with the higher res models backing
off banded snowfall, though the namnest still indicates the
potential for a narrow band across the Wet mtns through southern
Pueblo county early this evening, and have kept low end scattered
pops to match. With that said, not expecting much in the way of
accumulations across these areas, and with decreasing clouds through
the overnight hours, will see temperatures fall below zero across
much of the area. While winds are expected to remain generally light
across the lower elevations, the very cold ambient temperatures and
light winds will still produce wind chills in the -10F to -20F
through early Thursday morning across the plains. With that said,
have kept the Cold Weather Advisory in place for much of the plains
through 8 am, and have added Pueblo county to the this advisory.

It will be a battle of the airmasses tomorrow, with latest higher
res models indicating areas north and east of the Highway 50
Corridor, staying in the chilly air with light upslope flow keeping
temps in the 30s, where as areas south and west will warm back into
the 30s and 40s, warmest across the San Luis Valley and southern I-
25 Corridor. Westerly winds across the higher terrain will bring
spotty critical fire weather conditions to southern portions of the
San Luis Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Friday through Saturday...

Our next wave begins to approach by Friday, which will lead to
orographically enhanced snow showers over the higher elevations on
Friday. Models continue to show the cold front with this next system
coming through the plains Friday night. Current forecasted snowfall
amounts look to range from around 6 to 10 inches over our eastern
mountains and La Garitas, to over a foot for western portions of the
central mountains, to over 2 feet for our San Juans. As for
temperatures, they remain somewhat warm and uncertain on the plains.
This could lead to rain and mixed precipitation chances late Friday
into Saturday. At this time, best chances for snow with this event
look to remain over and near the mountains. Temperatures will be
above normal on Friday, with highs in the 50s for mountain valleys,
and 50s to 60s on the plains. On Saturday, temperatures look to
plummet quite a bit, dropping 10 to 20 degrees in some parts, due to
the exiting system. It is also important to note that Friday evening
into Saturday, there will be gusty winds mainly in the higher
elevations and the far southeast plains. Currently, we are
forecasting gusts around 60kts possible across the higher
elevations, and 40kts possible across the far southeast plains. This
could certainly lead to blowing snow conditions and make travel
hazardous.

Monday night onward...

Monday looks to mainly be dry with the possibility of more snow
showers in the late evening to overnight hours, due to another
upper- level wave moving through. This system is still far out,
so the finer details will still have to be determined as we get
closer. Overall, it looks to be quite active over the long-term
period, and as always make sure to stay tuned for weather
updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

KALS: VFR expected through 24 hours. Gusty west winds will weaken
overnight as clouds decrease. Winds will increase slightly and mid-
level clouds will return towards the end of this forecast period.

KCOS: Intermittent low clouds expected into tonight, with southeast
winds under 10 knots. MVFR to high-end IFR conditions expected under
low clouds. Some data shows the potential for some southwest winds
aloft, but as of now data keeps this shift above 4-5kft, too high to
mention LLWS in the TAF. Will monitor for changes. Conditions
improve late tonight into early tomorrow, with breezy southeast
winds and mid-level clouds. Cloud cover will increase tomorrow
evening.

KPUB: Intermittent low clouds possible until around 10z, but
will keep taf VFR for now and monitor for any increased areas of
low visibility the next few hours. Otherwise, winds turn
southeast tomorrow, with clear clouds through tomorrow evening,
where winds begin to shift to southwesterly.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
afternoon for COZ058-060-067-068.
Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for COZ084>086-
089-093>099.

&&

UPDATE...EHR/HODANISH/PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
607 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-140115-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
607 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Very cold temperatures are expected overnight with readings
ranging from around zero to as cold as 15 below across the colder
interior valleys. Wind chills will drop to between 10 and 20
below zero across the southeast plains and higher mountains where
frost bite could occur in as little as 30 minutes. Please remember
to bring pets indoors, and those individuals who are outdoors may
want to seek shelter overnight through mid-morning Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected to
continue Thursday morning across the plains, then gradually
warming temperatures are forecast from mid-morning into the
afternoon.

Another round of heavy snowfall is expected across the high
country late Thursday night through Saturday morning, with over a
foot of new snow possible across the central mountains, and over 2
feet possible for the San Juans. Travel through area mountain
passes may be difficult to impossible through this period,
especially Thursday night. Another round of snow looks to arrive
around the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed tonight.

10/EHR