Flood Watch 5, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms possible
  through much of this week from today onwards.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures
  through the next few days

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows an upper high
spinning over northern Arizona, with broad northwest flow across
Colorado.  Energy moving through the flow has spread mid and high
level cloud cover across most of southern Colorado this morning.  A
few light rain showers are possible through the next few hours,
mainly across the San Luis Valley, into the Eastern Mountains.
Overall, temperatures are mild, with mainly 60s across the Plains and
50s across the San Luis Valley.

Today and tonight...not much change expected in the upper level
pattern, with the upper high sitting over the Intermountain West and
persistent northwest flow across Colorado.  The current wave of
energy will exit to the southeast this morning, with the next
embedded wave lined up for this afternoon.  Low level moisture is in
place across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s
across the Plains, and PWAT values remain in excess of 1 inch.  Low
level flow will become east to southeasterly by this afternoon,
helping to keep moisture in place across the Plains.  SBCAPE values
are forecast to be around 1200 j/kg by this afternoon, and with the
energy moving across the region, will spark another round of showers
and thunderstorms across the area.  Initial development is expected
over the Mountains, and northwesterly flow should help push this
convection east into the Plains by mid to late afternoon.  0-6 km
shear is decent at around 30 kts.  The main threats from
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be wind gusts near 50
mph and penny size hail.  A few stronger storms from the Palmer
Divide regions, south into the I-25 corridor could become strong to
severe, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and 1 inch diameter
hail.  These storms will be efficient precipitation producers, and
flash flooding may be possible under heavier rain cores.  If you
encounter flooding, turn around, don't drown!  Highs today will
reach into the 70s and 80s across the region.

Overnight, the upper wave will track southeast across the Plains.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue east across the Plains.
Any severe weather risk will diminish this evening, with widespread
heavy rain expected as the precipitation shifts eastward.  The slow
movement of the upper wave will likely keep showers going well into
the overnight hours, coming to an end by Monday morning.  Overnight
lows will remain mild, with 50s and 60s tonight across the region.

Monday...not much change to the upper pattern, with the upper high
over the Intermountain West, and northwesterly flow across Colorado.
A cold front will drop south on the Plains during the morning hours,
with northerly flow turning southeasterly by mid to late morning.
Moisture remains in place, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 50s
to lower 60s, and PWAT values near 1.3 inches.  The next embedded
upper wave will drop south across the region Monday afternoon. There
are a few model differences in timing with this wave, with a
majority of the high-res CAM guidance developing widespread
convection by mid afternoon.  A few model solutions hold off on
convection until late in the afternoon.  This would allow the region
to cook a bit, and enhancing instability.  Most guidance has CAPE
values in excess of 1000 j/kg by the time convection develops.  0-6
km shear remains around 30 kts.  The main thunderstorms threats will
be gusty winds to near 50 mph and penny size hail.  A couple of
stronger storms are possible by late afternoon, as convection moves
off the higher terrain.  Stronger storms could produce wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter.  Given the
continued moisture set up, cells will remain efficient precipitation
producers, and continued elevated flash flood risk.  Temperatures
will be cooler Monday, with mostly 70s across the lower elevations.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Monday Night and Tuesday..

Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger well into the overnight
hours on Monday night, likely continuing straight into Tuesday
morning over portions of the high country. We remain under northwest
flow aloft on Tuesday, which will keep temperatures around 10
degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs. Much of plains and all
of our mountain valleys look to top out in the 70s on Tuesday, with
cloudy skies and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Flash flooding will continue to be a risk on Tuesday. For now, WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall painted across the
forecast area. Both EPS and GEFS ensemble members show nearly 200%
of normal for PWAT anomalies on Tuesday, though instability may end
up being less of a factor that day. Either way, areas that see
substantial rain on Sunday and Monday will still see the risk for
flash flooding on Tuesday as well.

Wednesday Onwards..

The upper-level ridge looks to build from Wednesday into the second
half of the week, though the monsoon moisture tap looks to remain
over us through at least the first couple days of this period.
Slightly below normal temperatures and daily chances for continued
showers and thunderstorms looks to persist straight through the
second half of the week. Models also indicate potential shortwave
energy for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, which could bring
increased flash flood and severe thunderstorm chances as well. Our
pattern does seem to begin to show signs of shifting back towards a
more seasonally typical pattern possibly by late weekend or through
the beginning of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be in play for all TAF sites,
KALS, KCOS, and KPUB, this afternoon and evening. The best
chance for storms will be over KCOS where a steady rain has been
put in the TAF with thunderstorms in the vicinity. KPUB is
expected to be PROB30 for the majority of the evening, but the
storms are more isolated over the lower Arkansas River Valley.
KALS is in the same boat as KPUB, but we put in VCSH in the TAF
instead. Showers and thunderstorms cease at around 9z tomorrow
morning. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible if a storm
develops over the terminals. We'll also need to keep track of
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds coming from other storms in the
vicinity of the terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...SKELLY

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-251800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1234 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread shower and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into
the overnight hours.  Most thunderstorms may be capable of producing
50 mph wind gusts and penny sized hail.  As storms move east into
the Palmer Divide and adjacent Plains later this afternoon, a couple
could become strong to severe, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph
and 1.5 inch diameter hail. Thunderstorms will be efficient rain
producers, and an elevated flash flood risk, especially on area
burn scars and flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Monday, another round of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms forecast for Monday primarily over the eastern
mountains. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing wind gusts to
50 mph and hail to the size of pennies. As storms move into the
Plains, a couple could become strong to severe, with hail to 1
inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Flash
flooding will remain possibe with storms that produce heavy
rainfall.

Tuesday Onwards, monsoon moisture and daily chances for rain,
flash flooding, and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
looks to persist from Tuesday through the end of this week.
Several inches of rain will be possible across much of the area
over the next several days, which may lead to flash flooding in
areas the are susceptible, or areas that see back to back rain
events. Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be
possible on a near daily basis through this period as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

SKELLY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
200 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

COZ081-082-085-242030-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
200 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 159 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cascade, or 10 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, penny size hail and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Manitou Springs, Green
Mountain Falls, Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita Park, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 10512 3899 10501 3890 10480 3878 10482
      3872 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 304DEG 7KT 3888 10500

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
206 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

COZ081-242030-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
206 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

At 206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodland Park, or 19 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 10493 3896 10518 3901 10520 3913 10497
      3913 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 251DEG 17KT 3901 10511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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