Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Pueblo, CO

837 
WGUS75 KPUB 240114
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
714 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

COC003-027-055-109-240124-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-250724T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamosa CO-Custer CO-Huerfano CO-Saguache CO-
714 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN SAGUACHE, NORTHEASTERN ALAMOSA, WESTERN CUSTER AND 
NORTHWESTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 10566 3799 10551 3771 10545 3770 10553
      3775 10557 3811 10585

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
242 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain lingers into this evening, then slightly cooler
  tomorrow, with continued chances for showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Excessive rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a
  concern this evening and again on Thursday, with a chance for
  strong to severe thunderstorms along and east of I-25 Thursday
  afternoon.

- Hotter and drier weather expected for the weekend/early next
  week.

- Potential increase in thunderstorm chances starting Tuesday,
  as moisture plume returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Usual crop of afternoon convection has developed across the
region, though storm coverage has been a little less than
yesterday as some slightly drier air has mixed into the region.
Cold front and resultant north winds behind the boundary were
also limiting convection along the I-25 corridor at midday,
though expect storms to fill in here late this afternoon/early
this evening, as low level winds turn more e-ne, especially
across Pueblo/El Paso Counties. High instability (CAPE 1-2k
J/kg) and slow storm movement will again lead to pockets of
heavy rainfall, while very low shear (0-6km less than 20 kts)
suggests most if not all storms should remain sub-severe.
Activity wanes after sunset, ending at most locations by
midnight.

On Thursday, storm coverage likely to increase slightly, as
surface winds turn more easterly and push moisture back into the
eastern mountains. Weak upper level wave drifting through the
area will also aide in convection as CAPE again climbs into the
1-2k range by afternoon, while 0-6km shear rises a bit to
between 20-30 kts. While most storms should remain sub-severe,
there could be at least a couple marginal severe storms possible
on the plains, especially late afternoon/early evening east of
I-25 where CAPE/shear are maximized. Storm motion will remain
slow, with at least isolated pockets of heavy rainfall/flash
flooding possible. Max temps will drift another couple degf
downward as moisture and convective cloudiness increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Generally southwest flow aloft in place at the start of the
period, though some weak ridging is anticipated. Thunderstorms
are appearing likely across southern Colorado again Friday
afternoon, however, coverage of storms will be much lower given
a transition to more westerly flow along with the return of
drier air. Instability should be lowering as well, but some
guidance is hinting at some higher values over the plains. If
this occurs, would expect to see a few stronger storms. Flow and
shear is rather limited on Friday, and think the risk of severe
weather is low at this time. As 700mb temps begin to warm on
Friday, will see temps return to more normal conditions for this
time of year.

Further drying and warming into the weekend will support
continued drier weather along with above normal temperatures.
Highest temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 will be
across the plains on Saturday and Sunday. Some slight increase
in moisture is possible on Sunday that could increase coverage
of any shower or thunderstorm activity. Still think development
will remain limited and confined to the higher terrain though.
Similar conditions anticipated on Monday, before precip chances
look to ramp back up moving into the middle part of next week.
Returning moisture still appears to be the trend by Tuesday,
again, increasing thunderstorm chances. If this trend continues,
heavy rainfall would be the main concern given the lacking flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Prevailing conditions will remain VFR the next 24 hrs, with again
a prob30 for tsra at all sites from mid afternoon until mid evening.
Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis due to heavy rain will be possible under
any stronger storms, with a period of gusty/erratic outflow winds
at all sites as well. Convection slowly diminishes this evening,
with gradually clearing skies overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, with the main risks
being small hail, gusty winds to 45 mph, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall. Areas that saw heavy rain on Tuesday
and recent burn scars may see an increased risk of flash flooding
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity as
we head into Thursday. Large hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with storms on
Thursday from the eastern mountains to the eastern plains, with
the highest risk over the I-25 corridor.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur on
Friday across the region. The main concern with these storms will
be the potential of locally heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail
along with cloud to ground lightning.

From Saturday through Monday, it will be hot across the region with
only isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. If storms do occur,
they will be capable of strong gusty outflow winds. There is the
potential for an increase in thunderstorm chances starting Tuesday,
as moisture plume returns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

COZ062-063-069-072-073-076>079-232115-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft CO-
229 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHAFFEE...WESTERN
FREMONT...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND NORTHEASTERN SAGUACHE COUNTIES
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Coaldale, or 56 miles southwest of Colorado
Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Swissvale, Texas Creek, Howard, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, and Hillside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10595 3861 10577 3833 10530 3819 10583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 322DEG 16KT 3841 10572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG