Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

236 
WGUS75 KPUB 052244
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
444 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

COC041-052254-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250605T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
El Paso CO-
444 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10489 3870 10491 3875 10470 3862 10467

$$

Schlatter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1156 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected today across southeast
  Colorado.

- Patchy dense fog through the mid-morning hours across the
  Palmer Divide/El Paso county.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Friday, with some strong
  to severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with
abundant moisture embedded within the flow across the southern
Great Basin into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
building into the Southern High Plains is keeping cool and moist
easterly upslope flow across the plains, with low clouds and
fog in place along and south of the Palmer Dvd in El Paso County
at this time.

For today and tonight, still expecting low clouds and fog to
fill in overnight across the plains with the persistent moist
easterly flow, with the expectation that the stratus/fog
dissipates through the early to mid morning, which will set the
stage for an active day across southeast Colorado, where SPC
still indicates a moderate to slight risk of severe weather.
Model data supports increasing flow aloft through the day, as a
southern stream short wave continues to translate across the
southern Rockies and into the Southern High Plains. The
increasing southwest flow develops a surface low across the
southeast plains, where latest cams support 1000-2500 j/kg of
sbcape, along with 40-60 kts of bulk shear, with expected
increasing SRH through the day surface low slides south and east
through the afternoon and evening. With faster surface heating,
cams are supporting an early start to convection with all
convective hazards in play, especially east of the I-25
Corridor, where model data supports increasing supercell and
sigtor parameters. Hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, damaging
wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and tornadoes will all be possible,
with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible with
pwats running between 150 and 175 percent of normal across the
region. With the westerly flow aloft and more northerly surface
flow developing through the overnight hours, should see clearing
skies later tonight, though still cant rule out some patchy fog
development across portions of the plains, with lows mainly in
the 50s, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weather looks active again on Friday, as mid/upper level winds
increase across the area while northern stream wave drops south
through the central Rockies. Wind shear wont be an issue for
severe storms, with 0-6km bulk shear in the 40-50 kt range,
driven by low level easterly flow of 10-15 kts while mid level
wly winds increase toward 40 kts by afternoon. Main question on
Friday will be instability, as air mass on the plains will take
some time to recover from Thu night MCS. Best CAPE initially on
Friday will be along the I-25 corridor, with a few CAMs showing
values of nearly 2000 J/KG from Pueblo southward at 21z. On the
plains, air mass remains fairly stable (CAPE less than 500 J/KG)
early in the afternoon, before deeper instability (CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG) develops toward 22z-00z. Expect initial
convection to form over the mountains at midday, with
strong/severe storms along I-25 by mid-afternoon, then across
the southeast plains through the evening as activity moves e-se
toward the KS border. Combination of instability/shear argues
for supercells with hail golf ball size or larger, winds over 70
mph and even a tornado threat, especially for storms that
spread from the srn I-25 corridor onto the plains south of
Highway 50, where shear is a bit stronger. SWODY2 covers this
well, with slight risk all the way west to I-25, including
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, and potential for 2 inch or greater
hail also across the sern plans and srn I-25 corridor.

Over the weekend, deep upper low develops over the upper
Midwest, while upper level ridge builds over the wrn U.S. With
slow build in mid level heights and subsidence behind departing
upper trough, Saturday still looks like a down day for
convection, as both wind shear and deep instability will be
lacking, and many models/ensembles show only isolated tsra
coverage Sat afternoon/evening. On Sun, return of southeast
upslope flow behind a cold front suggests increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially southeast mountains and
plains. For Mon/Tue/Wed, northwest flow aloft gradually
transitions back to wly as upper level ridge migrates through
the Rockies. Pattern would suggest a continuation of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms through the period, with
mountain convection during the day, moving e-se across the
plains each evening. Building heights/temps under the ridge
should boost temperatures back to near seasonal averages, with a
few spots on the plains around 90f by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Relatively quiet in the near term, though showers are already
developing across portions of southwest Colorado. This current
activity will continue to develop through the afternoon hours,
increasing in both coverage and intensity. No real big changes
to the TAFs at this time, mainly with regards to the
thunderstorm chances this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Did adjust COS to go with a tempo for thunder, as
confidence is increasing across this location by 20z. While
scattered showers may continue into the early evening time
frame, felt confident narrowing down the window for thunder at
COS. Will continue to monitor vis and thunderstorm intensity, as
I could see vis lower than the currently forecast 3sm could
occur.

Across PUB, didn't have much confidence to change the current
PROB30 for thunder but will continue to monitor the need to go
with a small tempo group. Similarly, didn't make many changes to
ALS. Contemplated removing the thunder as it could easily stay
to the north but given there is still a low chance, maintained
it in the forecast. Lastly, MVFR and IFR ceilings settle later
tonight into Friday morning for COS and PUB. No real big changes
made here, as a southeast to east wind will likely keep these
ceilings in place through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW/WFO Pueblo
LONG TERM...PETERSEN/WFO Pueblo
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1206 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

COZ058>089-093>099-061815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1206 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon over and near the higher terrain, with storms spreading
east over the southeast plains through the afternoon and evening.
While severe storms are likely during this time frame anywhere
along and east of the I-25 corridor, the highest risk for more
widespread severe storms will be across the far southeast plains
near the Colorado and Kansas border. All hazards are appearing
likely today. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts of 60
to 70 mph, and tornadoes. Additionally, there is a risk for heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding

Please stay weather aware across southeast Colorado today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible again Friday afternoon and
evening, mainly from the I-25 corridor eastward across the
southeast plains. Large hail of up to 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible, and a tornado can not be
ruled out as well, especially over the southeast plains south of
Highway 50.

Thunderstorms will become weaker and more isolated in coverage on
Saturday, then a better chance for storms develops for Sunday
into the middle of next week. The greatest hazards from any
thunderstorms in this period are expected to be small hail, gusty
outflow winds, heavy rainfall and lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1213 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

COZ098-099-051915-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County
CO-
1213 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PROWERS AND
NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1213 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an surface boundary
capable of producing landspouts over the next hour 14 miles north of
Springfield, and 10 miles west of Springfield.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Landspout tornadoes are possible along the surface
boundary.  Additionally, strong to severe storms will develop along
the boundary in the next few hours.

Locations impacted include...
  Pritchett and Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 10308 3764 10275 3765 10275 3783 10252
      3793 10204 3783 10204 3772 10219 3722 10307
      3728 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z ODEG 0KT 3761 10263

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlatter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

COZ085-051930-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet CO-
1244 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 1244 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Fort Carson, or 9 miles south of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Southern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Fort Carson, Security,
  Stratmoor, Security-Widefield and Peterson Space Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 10489 3867 10490 3867 10489 3869 10489
      3869 10490 3870 10489 3869 10486 3871 10488
      3872 10488 3872 10486 3873 10485 3874 10485
      3875 10486 3883 10470 3868 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 250DEG 6KT 3870 10485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlatter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
112 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

COZ098-099-052000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County
CO-
112 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS
AND NORTHERN BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM MDT...

At 112 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 13 miles southeast of Holly to 6 miles
northeast of Springfield, or extending from 38 miles east of Lamar
to 6 miles northeast of Springfield, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Landspouts are still a possibility along and to the
southeast of the strong thunderstorms in Baca County.

Locations impacted include...
  Springfield, Pritchett and Two Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 10294 3786 10213 3784 10204 3777 10204
      3753 10212 3727 10271
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 307DEG 13KT 3793 10195 3766 10227 3747 10254

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Schlatter