Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
136 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to affect
  portions of southwest Arizona and southeast California with more
  isolated activity across south-central Arizona through this
  evening.

- A drier and much quieter weather pattern will settle across the
  region beginning on Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend
  before gradually warming up to near normal by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper-level low pressure system that has been causing impactful
weather during the last couple of days remains situated near
southeast CA as of early this afternoon. Along the eastern flank of
the low, shower and thunderstorm activity have erupted across
portions of southeast CA and southwest AZ, with activity expected to
continue across these through this evening before eventually
dissipating completely. With MLCAPE values ranging between 500-1000
J/KG along with PWATs between 1.2-1.5", the environment will remain
favorable for some stronger storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" in a short amount of time. Thus,
the flash flood potential will remain elevated with a Flood Watch in
effect through early this evening. Farther east, across south-
central AZ, the shower and thunderstorm activity will remain more
isolated in coverage and thus not nearly as impactful as yesterday's
activity where widespread flash flooding was observed. Nevertheless,
any storms that do move across will be capable of producing brief
heavy downpours but the quick residence time should limit rainfall
amounts.

Heading into Sunday, the upper-level low will finally weaken and
move eastward through central AZ and thus most of the region will
remain on the subsident side. Therefore, thunderstorm activity will
be much more limited in coverage with chances mainly across the
AZ high terrain and any terrain escarpments through the afternoon
before rain chances end completely by the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Sunday night into Monday, our region will transition more into
zonal flow to weak ridging as a deep Pacific low moves southward to
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Temperatures will remain 5-8
degrees below normal areawide this weekend with the help of the
cutoff low over SoCal. Once we start to see weak ridging back into
our region early next week, daily highs will gradually warm,
attaining near normal values for the time of year (middle 90s for
the lower deserts) during the middle of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The primary aviation concern remains the potential for further
showers and thunderstorms. Once the remaining morning activity
wraps up, the best timing for further SHRA/TSRA activity looks to
be between 22-02Z this afternoon/evening. Typical impacts can be
expected with gusty and erratic winds and reductions of VIS.
Uncertainty exists regarding direct impacts at the terminals, so
adjustments in the TAFs may be needed in the near future. Outside
of any convection, winds will favor an E'rly component through
much of the day before a later than usual shift to the W tonight,
likely caused by outflow winds from distant activity, but gusts
are not expected in association with this feature at the moment.
Lowest cloud bases will be around 5-6k ft, with CIGs in
conjunction with any rainfall down near 7-8k ft.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Main concern during the TAF period will be potential SHRA/TSRA
activity this afternoon. Best timing for convection in the
vicinity looks to be between 22-02Z, but can't rule out a cell an
hour or two on either side of this window. Typical impacts can be
expected with gusty and erratic winds and reduced VIS at times.
Uncertainty remains regarding where convection will initiate, and
where it does eventually form will play heavily into the
directions of potential outflows so future amendments may be
needed. Outside of any rainfall, winds will favor an E'rly
component at IPL, with BLH favoring more of a S/SSW component this
afternoon and evening before both terminals experience VRB
directions overnight. Lowest cloud based during the next 24 hours
are expected around 6-7k ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As a low pressure system meanders over Southern California, chances
for wetting rainfall and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
remain today, mainly focused over the high terrain of the eastern
districts (20-50% CWR) and fairly widespread across the western
districts (30-60% CWR). Rain chances will end across the area by
Sunday evening, with only lingering chances over the AZ high
terrain Sunday during the day. MinRHs will continue in the 30-45%
range and temperatures in a 5-8 degrees below normal range
areawide today and Sunday, with humidity gradually decreasing and
temperatures gradually warming early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch until 6 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>533-536.

CA...Flood Watch until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ560-561-564-565-
     568>570.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Whittock
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
343 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

AZZ533-538-540-272315-
Buckeye/Avondale AZ-Tonopah Desert AZ-Central La Paz AZ-
343 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MST...

At 343 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Sundad to near Painted
Rock Dam. Movement was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buckeye, Tonopah, Palo Verde, Painted Rock Dam, Palo Verde Nuclear
Generation Station, Wintersburg, Hassayampa, and Arlington.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 69 and 115.
AZ Route 85 between mile markers 139 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 11340 3352 11258 3320 11259 3325 11326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 159DEG 17KT 3334 11313 3329 11272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SDB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
353 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Flash Flood      Miami                   33.40N 110.86W
09/27/2025                   Gila               AZ   Emergency Mngr

            US 60 impassable near the Miami area.

&&

GL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
358 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     Flash Flood      Claypool                33.41N 110.85W
09/27/2025                   Gila               AZ   Public

            Fast flowing water along Vanwinkle Avenue.

&&

GL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
401 PM MST Sat Sep 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Globe              33.38N 110.77W
09/27/2025                   Gila               AZ   Public

            Fast flowing water through Six Shooter
            Canyon wash, inundating low water crossings
            including Beer Tree Crossing.

&&

GL