Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
324 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.
Yesterday's upper level trough has moved east of the area setting
up zonal flow across the area ahead of the next upper level
trough. This next upper level trough is currently off the
Oregon/Washington coast. Portions of this trough will move across
our area late tonight into Saturday. The main push of moisture
with this upper level trough will impact our area mainly Sunday
morning and continue into Monday. See long-term discussion for the
impacts Sunday onward.

With heating today there are weak isolated snow showers across
the area. Little, if any, snow accumulation is expected today. On
Saturday, moisture ahead of this next system will move into the
area. Expect light to moderate snow showers on Saturday,
especially for upslope areas across the Central mountains and the
Eastern Highlands where 1 to 4 inches of snow is likely above
mainly 4500 feet. Elevations above 6000 feet across the Wasatch,
Big Hole, and Island park areas could see up to 6 to 8 inches of
upslope snow. Snow will drop to valley bottoms with stronger
convective bands on Saturday. Winds will start to pick up Saturday
with wind gusts up to 35 to 45 mph likely, especially for
ridgetops, the Shoshone area, Eastern Magic Valley and the Snake
river plain.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sun through next Fri evening. This period starts in the
middle of the next significant storm for the forecast area. Rain and
snow should reach a peak in the central Idaho mountains Sun
afternoon and evening. The main impact area will be the Sawtooth and
upper Wood River basins, and the Island Park area where Winter
Storm Watches are in effect. Farther south, the higher the snow
levels and the less precipitation. Snow continues in a limited way
for Mon night and Tue, with finally a dry Wed/Wed night and just
light snow for Thu/Thu night.

Temperatures for Sun have trended colder compared to yesterday's
thinking--but still some lower 50s readings in the southwest corner
of the forecast area. This should help bring more snow than previous
thinking, but still for some areas storm total amounts are staying
below Advisory-level.

Wind stays at windy and higher levels until Mon morning, with the
exception of some localized very windy conditions in the south
central hills south of Burley. By Wed, wind is light nearly
everywhere except moderate on ridges.
Messick

&&

.AVIATION...CIGs have been slow to clear after some morning stratus
and some snow around KDIJ, but this afternoon has seen strong
improvement that should last into the evening hours. However, late
night hours indicate a return of stratus with some snow showers
around for tonight. The risk of snow showers is less than 20 percent
for KSUN, KIDA, KPIH, and KBYI, while KDIJ only goes to 20 to 25
percent risk after 15/11Z tonight. So have left that at VCSH
mention. The wind remains elevated at the valley airdromes and KDIJ
and thus do not see issues with BR/FG and VSBY. KSUN should see
downslope wind preventing stratus and BR/FG.
Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures have dropped off significantly today.
Thus, snowmelt south of Rexburg has dropped off. The Flood
advisory south of Rexburg has been cancelled.

A warm and moist atmospheric river event will move through the
area mainly Sunday and Monday. Most of the plume of moisture will
hit our northern areas across the Central Mountains and the
Island Park area. That said, southern areas (like the Malad area
south to the Utah line) that have had recent snow will see most of
that snow melt off during this event. Additionally there will be
rain (0.25 to 0.50 inch) on snow. Plus, areas across the Arco
desert, the Upper Snake Plain, the Shoshone area, and possibly the
Wood River range (especially southern areas) will have snowmelt
due to warmer temperatures and rain on snow. Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon
for IDZ066.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
night for IDZ071>074.

&&