Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
247 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across
the area as our multi-day atmospheric river event is now
underway. For the higher elevations of the central mountains and
east/southeast highlands, not much has changed with the forecast
and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place with snowfall totals in
the warned areas likely to be quite high (6-18 inches, locally
higher at the highest peaks) between now and Sunday AM. See the
Winter Weather headlines for specifics. The biggest challenge in
the short term is for snowfall (and amounts) across the Magic
Valley and Snake Plain. Areas around Pocatello are currently
downsloping with temperatures in the lower 40s this afternoon. The
HRRR seems to have the best handle on the current downsloping in
the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain. That being said, model
soundings suggest that as the initial onset of precip falls into
drier low-level air, we should see some wet-bulbing in the valleys
allowing temps to drop back closer to the freezing mark by later
this evening and throughout much of the overnight. Just how much
though is the biggest question mark and we're basically at the
point where we just need to now-cast based on trends and
observations. All that being said, valley snowfall amounts have
trended down a bit from the previous forecast but still show some
accumulation across all of the Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Magic
Valley. As such, will keep the Winter Weather Advisories in place,
as is, but just know that this the p-type forecast (and
accumulations) are LOW confidence even though we're just a few
hours away. This is certainly a scenario where some of the bench
areas around Pocatello COULD end up with a few more inches of snow
than parts of town just a few hundred feet lower in elevation.
Time will tell. Unfortunately, we're gonna play this game again
tomorrow in the valleys as daytime temperatures will support rain
or rain/snow mix and then overnight cooling will bring the chance
for more accumulating snow. Expect another low confidence snowfall
forecast in the valleys again tomorrow, unfortunately. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday
The long-duration atmospheric river event will continue to bring
moderate to heavy snow to our mountains and light snow, as well as
rain and mixed precipitation to our valleys, through late next
week. Our first round of Warnings and Advisories will expire early
Sunday, although more headlines are anticipated for early next
week as the next round of moisture shifts inland. Additional snow
accumulations for each 24 hour period Sunday through Tuesday look
to be another 7 to 12 inches in the central mountains and 5 to 15
inches above 6,500 feet elevation in the eastern mountains.
Locations elsewhere will receive Trace to a couple of inches
during each period. Transport of warm Pacific air will raise
temperatures with daytime highs peaking in the 30s and 40s on
Tuesday. Rising snow levels will mean increasing chances for mixed
precipiation and rain in our valleys heading into early next
week. However, widespread snow chances will return later week when
temperatures drop by 10 or so degrees Wednesday as the next
system arrives. Cropp

&&

.AVIATION...
Precipitation associated with a long-duration atmospheric river
event will continue through late next week. Confidence is very
low in precipitation type and timing of any transitions at KPIH
and KBYI, with models having a difficult time determining the
rain/snow line. Aside from Pacific air increasing temperatures
through the weekend, daytime warming will likely limit snow
accumulations in the valleys with the overnight hours being the
best chance for accumulations at the aforementioned terminals.
Winds will increase tonight into Saturday, with 25 to 35 kt gusts
impacting KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI. Cropp

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for IDZ051>057-059.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for IDZ058-060>066.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for IDZ069.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for IDZ071>075.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1112 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 WSW Marion           42.17N 114.20W
01/31/2025  M59 MPH          Cassia             ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CRII1 Cotton Ridge.

0700 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NW Niter              42.52N 111.74W
01/31/2025  M47 MPH          Caribou            ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GREI 1 NW Niter.

0350 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 11 WSW Atomic City      43.40N 113.02W
01/31/2025  M47 MPH          Butte              ID   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SUM Big Southern Butte.

1004 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Heyburn                 42.55N 113.77W
01/31/2025  M45 MPH          Minidoka           ID   ASOS

            ASOS station KBYI Burley Municipal Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1157 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Snow             Ketchum                 43.68N 114.37W
01/31/2025  M6.0 Inch        Blaine             ID   Public

            Webb Landscape snow stake storm total so
            far.

&&

CM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1200 AM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Snow             Galena                  43.87N 114.66W
01/31/2025  M9.0 Inch        Blaine             ID   Public

            Galena Lodge snow stake storm total so far.

&&

CM

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