Wind Advisory 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MST Fri Jan 3 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.
The warm front from this morning has continued its trek northward
and taken most of the moisture with it, but don't worry, the cold
front with this system will come barreling in tonight. This will
bring some more precipitation with it, cooler temperatures, and some
wind, too. At the start, temperatures will still be warm enough to
support a brief period of rain in the eastern Magic Valley and lower
Snake River Plain. A short burst of snowfall in the eastern Magic
Valley will lead to light accumulations, and even accumulations in
the Snake Plain look relatively light. However, a convergence
band mid morning from Idaho Falls to the Pocatello area could
bring some additional snow accumulation. The most likely snow
totals in this area will fall between 1 to 2 inches with the HREF
90th percentile totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches. Overall, there
is about a 10 to 20 percent chance of at least 3 inches of snow
between Pocatello and Idaho Falls. Elsewhere, most of our mid
elevation areas will see 2 to 4 inches of snow with the HREF 90th
percentiles ranging from 3 to 5 inches. The exception to these
totals will be in the Bear River Range where we already have a
Winter Weather Advisory out for this evening and where totals will
range from 8 to 12 inches of snow with closer to 14 inches above
pass level. Given these totals and forecast winds, have decided to
keep headlines as they are with just the one Winter Weather
Advisory for the Bear River Range.

Wind gusts along and just behind the cold front will be strongest in
parts of the South Hills and eastern Magic Valley with gusts of 35
to 40 mph and isolated gusts around 45 mph. We will be near Wind
Advisory criteria, but coverage at this point doesn't look quite
widespread enough to issue. Either way, it will be breezy to windy
at times and the wind and any falling snow will make for difficult
travel at times. Temperatures will generally be running 5 to 10
degrees cooler with highs in the low to mid 30s for most. Light snow
will linger into Saturday night, but totals then will be much
lighter.
AMM

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
Little has changed with the extended period this forecast cycle.
Secondary shortwave follows through Sunday and Monday for
additional light snows mainly across the southern and eastern
highlands. Areas within the interstate corridor up to receiving a
small amount of snow through this time period as well. Sharp ridge
begins building along the Pacific coast during this time frame,
which folds over East Idaho during the day Wednesday. Another
shortwave tops the ridge and drops across the northern Rockies
Wednesday, skimming pat the northeast corner. NBM carries just
enough moisture to produce light pops over the eastern highlands
Wednesday, but very little QPF is generated, so expectations for
much additional snowfall are minimal. Once this trough axis passes
through the state, ridge to the west allowed to amplify further,
leading to stronger north flow directly across Idaho. For the
remainder of the period, ensemble clusters lean toward developing
a new rex block resulting from closing off the Sunday/Monday
feature across the deep southwest. The result could be several
days of cold and dry conditions headed into next weekend. NBM
spread shows max temps most lower elevation areas could struggle
around the freezing mark. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF are much
lower so this could be the impact to keep in mind headed through
the week. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Friday to 18Z Saturday.
Our weather remains relatively quiet behind the warm front that
lifted north through the area this morning and conditions are
predominantly VFR through the afternoon and early evening. That will
change as our next cold front swings through the area later this
evening/tonight and brings another round of rain and snow with it.
Look for drops in both CIGs and VIS to at least MVFR conditions if
not IFR once precip switches over to mostly snow at BYI, PIH, and
IDA. Expect all snow at SUN and DIJ with this system. Wind will also
be an issue with/behind the cold front with the strongest gusts
Saturday morning of 30 to 40 kts at BYI and PIH. Gusts will be
closer to 25 kts at IDA and around 15 kts at SUN and DIJ. We will be
watching for a convergence band of snow around IDA to PIH between 15-
19Z Saturday, too. While some light snow will linger into late
Saturday, look for some improvement as we head into Sunday.
AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM MST Saturday for
IDZ060.

&&

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