Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Monday, primarily each afternoon. Stronger storms will
  be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief
  heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  thunderstorms, with near normal to below normal temperatures
  expected through early next week.

- Warmer and dry condition will return midweek under the
  increasing influence of high pressure, before trending cooler
  and breezier late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Broad complex low remains centered over the northern portions of the
Gulf of Alaska today, with weak shortwave crossing East Idaho per wv
satellite imagery. Starting to see some development across portions
of the central mountains and along/just south of the Utah border
this afternoon per radar imagery. Isolated thunderstorms remain
possible this afternoon once again generally over higher terrain.
Gust potential remains around 50 mph. Another round occurs on
Sunday, but generally focused further north along the Montana
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Stronger shortwave ejects northeast across East Idaho on Monday,
bringing a slightly increased chance of thunderstorms across the
central mountains and along the Divide. The rest of the region is
still expected to remain dry. Starting Tuesday, a strong area of
high pressure builds across Arizona/New Mexico. Weak ridge is
expected to nudge north into East Idaho, but amplified trough
remains along the PacNW coast. Breezy southwest winds should be in
place Tuesday through Thursday, leading to potential fire concerns
in the long term. Leaning into late Thursday and Friday, the PacNW
trough appears to shift inland, flattening ridge and potentially
introducing moisture back to the region by the weekend. Throughout
the week, temperatures remain fairly stable in the upper 80s to low
90s, with Wednesday being the warmest day prior to encroachment of
the upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Isolated thunderstorms will largely remain away from terminals today
but have included a PROB30 period from 00z to 06z tonight at KDIJ.
CAMs show isolated storms/showers working through the vicinity of
the terminal during this timeframe and HREF indicates a 30 percent
probability of thunder while chances remain under 20 percent
elsewhere this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of
gusts to around 45 kts. Otherwise, winds will gust 18 to 25 kts
areawide this afternoon before becoming light again tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A series of shortwaves will keep isolated showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through early next week, although chances will
become mostly confined to our northernmost Fire Weather Zones
beginning tomorrow (Zones 475, 476, and 413). Activity will be more
widespread today, with the best chances for isolated convection (up
to around 20 percent chance) being along our borders with MT, WY,
UT, and NV, in Zones 475, 476, 411, 413, and 427. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing gusts to around 50 mph. Outside of storms,
afternoon wind gusts will max out at around 30 mph. Conditions will
trend drier and warmer over the next few days as high pressure
amplifies over the region. Monday and/or Tuesday continue to look
like the next potential opportunities for meeting Red Flag
conditions for gusty winds and low relative humidity, most
specifically across FWZs 410 and 413.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
454 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

IDZ061-022330-
Bear Lake Valley ID-
454 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
BEAR LAKE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 449 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and thunderstorms
approaching eastern the Bear Lake Idaho Portion from the west.

HAZARD...Wind gusts outflows in excess of 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could create strong waves on Bear Lake.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Saint Charles, and Fish Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Bear Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Strong winds will create rough chop.
Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4214 11138 4217 11125 4200 11125 4200 11141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 182DEG 4KT 4206 11132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...35 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
521 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

IDZ059>061-022345-
Franklin/Eastern Oneida Region ID-Bear Lake Valley ID-
Bear River Range ID-
521 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN BEAR LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 520 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong showers and
thunderstorm near Franklin. Strong outflow winds are impacting the
area.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and observation indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Saint Charles, Mapleton, and Minnetonka Cave.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 11181 4214 11138 4200 11142 4200 11183
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 182DEG 4KT 4209 11160

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

TW