Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1250 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe storms today.

- Isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

- Flash flood watch over Wapiti burn scar in Custer County this
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Upper level short wave trof continued to progress east through
Idaho this afternoon. Is kicking off fairly widespread showers
and thunderstorms with likely the most widespread at trof
passage from 2 pm through 6 pm. After 6 pm should be mainly
limited to eastern mountains with the main threat wind gusts
over 40 mph and small hail. There is a chance for an isolated
severe storm and area remains in a marginal risk. Lows tonight
in the 40s and 50s. Expect thunderstorm redevelopment Thursday
afternoon but not nearly as widespread as today and mainly
limited to the mountains. Coverage mainly isolated throughout
the day. Highs Thursday in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys.
Lows Thursday night in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The upper level ridge at the end of the near term
forecast continues to block lows to the north through the weekend.
On Mon, there is a 28 percent chance of the upper level ridge
beginning to break down, but 72 percent chance the ridge is still in
place. A flatter flow develops on Tue for the majority of solutions,
with a 12 percent chance of an open wave being directly overhead.
The flat flow continues to be the majority solution, which could
lead to light showers and thunderstorms. On either end of the
solution spectrum, there is a slightly less than 15 percent
risk of that upper level trough still lingering and similarly
for a new upper level ridge to build into forecast area.

The southerly airflow ahead of the potential trough on Mon will make
that day the warmest of the period. Temperatures are in the middle
to upper 80s with some small areas reaching 90 deg F at the lower
elevations, and upper 70s to lower 80s in the central Idaho
mountains. The flatter flow should provide some cloudiness starting
Tue to take the edge off temperatures, by 1 to 4 deg F. by Wed it
appears the preponderance of the solutions is to return to warming.

With the zonal flow period on Tue-Wed, would expect breezy to windy
conditions possible, mainly on ridges and in the eastern Magic
Valley and lower Snake River plain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TSRA probabilities for the afternoon have increased to the
point where PROB30 groups are useful. -SHRA has gone nearly
categorical for some this afternoon. By 11/22Z, skies will start
to clear from west to east, so first is KBYI, then KSUN, KPIH,
KIDA, then KDIJ by 12/03Z. Skies for most will be literally
clear, with another feature generating clouds late tonight.
KIDA also has a risk of getting some clouds below 2500ft AGL.
Wind will be moderately strong in thunderstorms, with gusts to
35KT-40KT. Precipitation has the potential to be moderate to
heavy at times, with Precipitable Water as high an inch in the
KPIH/KIDA area.

Expecting a return of TSRA on Thu afternoon, but no risk of
severe TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A strong system/trough will move through the area today
bringing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms late
this morning into the early evening. Moderate to strong
outflows and moderate to large hail are expected with
thunderstorms. Also, expect moderate to heavy brief rainfall
with thunderstorms. Isolated flooding is possible, especially
for the Wapiti burn scar north of Stanley. Temperatures will
drop 4 to 8 degrees (70s to 80s) today and Thursday compared to
yesterday but temperatures will still be above normal. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected Thursday as well. The area begins to
dry out again towards the end of the week and into the weekend
with temperatures rising back to the 80s and 90s by the weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ072.

&&

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...TW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
312 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Clayton                 44.26N 114.40W
06/11/2025  M63 MPH          Custer             ID   Mesonet

            ITD Mesonet.

&&

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