Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

426 
WHUS71 KPHI 161053
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

ANZ450>452-170000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.MF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250318T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 6 to 11 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few gale force gusts are possible this 
  afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-170000-
/O.CON.KPHI.MF.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250316T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250317T0700Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to 1/4 NM or less. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and rough 
  waters.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 8 AM EDT this 
  morning. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 3 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few gale force gusts are possible this 
  afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

ANZ431-170000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250317T0700Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  rough waters.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few gale force gusts are possible this 
  afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-170000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-250318T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 6 to 9 ft.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 
  20 nm, Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 
  20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island 
  DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A few gale force gusts are possible this 
  afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hoeflich

644 
WHUS71 KPHI 161344
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

ANZ430-431-170245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and rough waters. For the Gale Warning,
  south winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and rough waters
  expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM 
  EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-170245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 15 to 25 kt 
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft. For the Gale 
  Warning, south winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 7 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM 
  EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-170245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
944 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft. For the Gale Warning,
  south winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 7 to 9 
  ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 
  20 nm, Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 
  20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island 
  DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM 
  EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

835 
WHUS71 KPHI 161934
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

ANZ430-431-170600-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and rough waters. For the Gale Warning, 
  south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and rough waters 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>452-170600-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds 20 to 25 kt 
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. For the Gale 
  Warning, south winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and 
  seas 7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg 
  Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to 
  Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ453>455-170600-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-250316T2200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0014.250316T2200Z-250317T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, south winds around 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. For the Gale 
  Warning, south winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas
  6 to 9 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 
  20 nm, Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 
  20 nm and Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island 
  DE out 20 nm.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 6 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, until 2 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
156 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front slowly lifts across our region through Sunday, then a
strong cold front moves through Sunday night into early Monday.
High pressure builds in Monday night and Tuesday before shifting
offshore later Wednesday. A cold front may then move through later
Thursday, followed by high pressure extending into our area Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Areas of fog and drizzle have returned across most of the area.
Have issued an SPS for patchy dense fog, but conditions across
the southern half of the region are improving with a warm front
trying to lift northward. Would expect the front to get to the
Philly metro by daybreak and fog to lift around then. An
increase in wind speeds as the gradient strengthens should also
help mix things in the low-levels and improve visibility. As a
result, do not think a Dense Fog Advisory is needed currently.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Changing conditions as a strong cold front moves through later
Sunday. Strong gradient winds, a low severe thunderstorm risk
(damaging winds) and locally heavy rain by late Sunday and Sunday
night.

As a strong upper-level trough across the Midwest and Plains
gradually shifts eastward, deep surface low pressure tracks across
the Great Lakes into Ontario through Sunday. This will result in a
warm front lifting northward through Sunday ahead of the cold front
with warm air advection strengthening. Part of the upper level
energy associated with the system looks to lift up into Canada,
however there is trailing strong energy that maintains the
trough all the way to the Gulf Coast area. As this shifts into
the east by Sunday night, the wind field is forecast to increase
substantially. This along with the tightening of a pressure
gradient within the warm sector will result in an increasing
surface wind. This is expected to peak across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front as we see a little
more vertical mixing. Speaking of which, that continues to be
one of the most challenging parts of the forecast...the question
of how deep we'll be able to mix on Sunday as we'll still have
a low level inversion in place. Deeper mixing will allow for
stronger wind gusts. Think peak wind gusts look to be in the
35-45 mph range although cannot rule out some local gusts to 50
mph if we can mix a bit deeper. The best chances for these
higher gusts appear to be over Delmarva into SE PA where it
should be a bit warmer with more mixing. Temperatures will be
warm for this time of year but not as warm as they would be if
we were able to get some sunshine which is unlikely. Generally
expect highs in the 60s, except around 70 over most of Delmarva
except near the water. The surface dew points are forecast to
surge to near 60 degrees across much of the area through Sunday
evening ahead of the strong cold front.

As the cold front starts to arrive later Sunday afternoon, the
forcing for ascent looks to be tied close to or with the front
itself or a pre-frontal band. The main widespread shower activity,
from west to east, looks to be late Sunday afternoon through about
the first half of Sunday night. Given the robust wind field in place
and strong forcing arriving, cannot rule out a strengthening
convective line with or just ahead of the cold front. The deep-layer
shear profiles will be very strong however the overall instability
looks to be rather weak (low CAPE/high shear setup). Despite the
rather weak instability, especially given the timing at night,
strong forcing could still drive a low-topped convective line that
produces little or no lightning. It is within these environments
that some of the very strong winds from aloft could get transferred
down to the surface resulting in some damaging wind gusts. As a
result, there remains some risk of severe thunderstorms although
again the damaging wind threat from convection could occur with
little or no lightning. A plume of precipitable water is forecast to
reach or exceed 1.5 inches and therefore areas of heavier hourly
rainfall rates look probable. Given how dry it has been, not
expecting much in the way of flooding, however when hourly rainfall
rates peak and especially when over the urban areas then some
localized flooding is quite possible late Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. The storm total rainfall amounts across the region
currently are between 0.75-1.25 inches (highest near the coast and
lowest in our north/west zones), with locally higher amounts
possible. SPC withdrew the Slight Risk with the update yesterday
afternoon, putting most of the region in a Marginal Risk (level
1 out of 5). This remains the case, which matches the setup of
high shear and little to no CAPE. Overall, while it can't be
ruled out, the threat for damaging winds from convection remains
low.

The trends in the forecast guidance are continuing to lean in the
direction of developing a new area of low pressure along the cold
front Sunday night as it reaches the coast. This is likely to keep
rain/showers going through Sunday night into the first part of
Monday near and S/E of the I-95 corridor while precip tapers off
farther north and west. In fact if this trend continues, much of
Monday could remain unsettled with lingering showers over the
eastern half of the forecast area (roughly from around Philly and
points east). However precip by Monday won't be as heavy and the
threat for storms will have passed as we'll be on the cool side of
the system. Generally expect highs in the 50s Monday with N/NW
breezes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summary...Temperatures above average, with the exception of Friday.
The next main system with shower chances are centered on Thursday.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough axis is forecast to shift
offshore Monday night with the flow aloft turning zonal in its wake.
A mid level ridge axis then extends into our area Tuesday before it
shifts offshore Wednesday as a strong upper-level trough moves
through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This trough then arrives
across the East Thursday into Friday, as it may take on a negative-
tilt, before lifting out into Saturday. At the surface, high
pressure initially across our area Wednesday weakens and shifts
offshore. A potentially strong cold front then arrives later
Thursday, with a trough or secondary cold front moving through on
Friday. High pressure should then extend into our area Saturday.

For Monday night through Wednesday...In the wake of an upper-level
trough Monday night, the flow aloft turns zonal through Tuesday.
This zonal flow then backs as a strong upper-level trough migrates
across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys through Wednesday. This will
take weak surface high pressure over our area offshore by later
Wednesday night. The presence of the ridge aloft on Tuesday should
result in a milder air mass in place, although some onshore wind
component as the flow lessens will keep it cooler closer to the
coast. Some showers could persist Monday evening along the coast
given the slow moving trough axis, it then looks to be dry overall.
However, there could be just enough of an onshore flow coupled with
some warm air advection aloft Wednesday to result in a marine layer
developing. This may result in cooler temperatures, and at least
some model guidance has trended cooler for Wednesday. Given light
enough flow and a more onshore component to the surface winds, it
will be several degrees cooler closer to the coasts both days.

For Thursday and Friday...A potentially strong upper-level
trough is forecast to pivot across the East during this time frame.
This trough may take on a negative-tilt as strong energy rotates
through the base of the trough and then its east side. As deep low
pressure moves across the Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, its
strong cold front should arrive in our area later Thursday then be
offshore by Friday morning. This timing of course could change,
however as of now a plume of moisture should extend into our area
and given the strengthening wind field and strong trough and cold
front arriving, some heavier showers are possible. Given the parent
low currently forecast to track well north of our area and likely
occlude though, there could be a disconnect in the forcing across
our area and therefore a lower chance for showers with the arrival
of the front. There could also be some lingering stratus and if this
were to occur then temperatures will be cooler and any instability
will be more limited. In the wake of the cold front, another setup
of a tightened pressure gradient which would translate to a gusty
northwesterly breeze Friday. Given the trough aloft overhead Friday,
a much cooler air mass is forecast to be in place.

For Saturday...The aforementioned upper-level trough is forecast to
be lifting to our northeast, allowing surface high pressure to our
south to extend into our area with less wind. The next system
however may be moving into the Ohio Valley, and therefore any
sunshine may give way to increasing clouds. Given the trough moving
out, daytime temperatures should be several degrees milder than
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...LIFR for the South Jersey and I-95 terminals with
patchy fog and drizzle. Conditions could improve a little bit to
IFR/MVFR around daybreak with a warm front lifting north but
confidence is low on when that warm front lifts through. For
KRDG/KABE, expecting IFR, though some fog may make it to KABE,
reducing conditions down to LIFR. Low-level wind shear expected
at all TAF sites with a 40-45 kt low-level jet. Low confidence.

Today...Areas of IFR ceilings should improve to MVFR with
visibility increasing to 6+ miles. Cannot rule out a period of
low-end VFR as the day goes on before showers arrive. While a
few showers may develop late in the day, the main shower
activity looks to hold off until Sunday night. Southerly winds
increase to 10-20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots, with the
highest winds in the afternoon. Low confidence.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR with periods of heavy rain and low clouds for
the first half of the night. Some of the showers can be heavy. A
line or broken line of low- topped convection could move
through and contain a few thunderstorms along with locally brief
stronger wind gusts, though have not put thunder in the TAFs for
now. Winds out of the south around 10-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
for the first part of the night, with low- level wind shear
expected for the I-95 and South Jersey terminals with a 50-60 kt
low- level jet. Conditions may gradually improve late in the
night with winds shifting to the west/northwest late as a front
comes through. Winds will be around 5-10 kt for the back half of
the night. Low confidence overall.

AMD NOT SKED continues at KMIV due to a comms issue.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR ceilings with some lingering showers possible in
the morning, then improving to VFR with decreasing clouds.
Northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Some MVFR ceilings possible.

Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions and some showers
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM this
morning. Otherwise, a Small Craft Advisory in effect as seas
build and winds increase from south to north.

Sunday through Sunday night...Gale Watch remains in place for
all coastal waters as wind gusts will near 34 kt out of the
south, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Seas 7-10 feet
expected.

The conditions then start to subside for a while Monday although
seas remain elevated on the ocean zones therefore a Small Craft
Advisory looks probable.

Outlook...

Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions for the ocean zones
especially for seas above 5 feet. The conditions should be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria on Delaware Bay.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory possible for the ocean zones as seas
gradually subside to and below 5 feet.

Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MJL
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1118 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

NJZ001-007>010-012>027-161115-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House,
Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island,
and Wharton State Forest
1118 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY...

Patchy fog across New Jersey will reduce visibilities down to 1
mile or less. There will also be locally dense fog that will
reduce visibility down to 1/4 mile or less.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-161115-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, and Denton
1118 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA...

Patchy fog across the Delmarva peninsula will reduce visibilities
down to 1 mile or less. There will also be locally dense fog that
will reduce visibility down to 1/4 mile or less.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-161115-
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
1118 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA..

Patchy fog across eastern Pennsylvania will reduce visibilities
down to 1 mile or less. There will also be locally dense fog that
will reduce visibility down to 1/4 mile or less.

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

Hoeflich