Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

794 
WGUS81 KPHI 162307
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
707 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

PAC017-162317-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250517T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bucks PA-
707 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for Central Bucks County.

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 7514 4022 7515 4023 7516 4025 7520
      4028 7520 4027 7508 4022 7501


$$

MJL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
411 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers, thunderstorms, and humidity continue
through Saturday morning ahead of a strong cold front that
passes through Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. High
pressure builds into the area on Sunday and persists into
Tuesday before another period of unsettled weather returns
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A second round of severe weather is possible late this afternoon
and into tonight as another MCS moves east from the southern
Ohio River Valley across Virginia and into the DC Metro. This
MCS is expected to bring a cluster of storms across the Delmarva
tonight, potentially impacting portions of southeast PA and
southern NJ again. This MCS also looks to interact with the
residual outflow boundary from our severe storms late this
morning and early this afternoon. In fact, convection has fired
up along this outflow boundary already across central PA. There
remains ample untapped instability (2000-3000 J/kg CAPE) across
south central PA, northern VA, and the western Delmarva
Peninsula. Furthermore, skies have cleared out rapidly this
afternoon, allowing for some locations to see some atmospheric
destabilization again. Damaging wind gusts with some possible
hail will be the main concerns, but another tornado or two
cannot be ruled out with this second round of severe storms. The
second round of severe potential will be around 5-9pm.

Overnight, there may still be some convection ongoing into the
evening but this should diminish with time leading to another
brief lull. Once again, there could be some low clouds, mist,
and fog that form due to the continuing moist environment. The
action won't be over though because another decaying MCS may
move into the area sometime overnight into early Saturday
morning. There remains a lot of uncertainty on this though and
depends on how storms pan out across Missouri and Kentucky
tonight. Otherwise, it will be a mild, muggy night with lows
mainly in the 60s.

The aforementioned MCS arrives across the region around
daybreak. A bit of uncertainty still remains with how strong
this MCS will remain by the time it reaches the Delaware Valley,
but the chance for showers and storms certainly remains
possible. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy through the
morning however, before clearing out by early afternoon.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s for most areas with dew
points in the low to mid 60s making it feel quite uncomfortable
outside. The cold front will continue to make its way east
through the afternoon where isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will re-develop by the afternoon. That said, the latest guidance
is less aggressive with storm development Saturday afternoon.
While some instability will be around, upper level forcing will
be weaker and drier air aloft may limit any widespread
convective initiation. As of now, storms tomorrow will likely be
more isolated to scattered in nature with a marginal chance for
storms to become severe. If so, gusty winds and hail will be the
main concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will push off the coast by Saturday night and
the threat for storms wanes in addition to the loss of daytime
heating. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Sunday is looking like the better half of the weekend as tranquil
weather returns with the upper trough moving further east. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies are expected with dry conditions and lower
humidity. Perhaps an isolated shower is possible north and west, but
general thinking is most of the area will stay dry. The one thing to
note is winds will increase as diurnal mixing occurs as the area
lies wedged between systems resulting in a tightening pressure
gradient. Wind gusts up 30-35 mph will be possible. Gusts will
diminish into Sunday night under mostly clear skies. Despite the
windy conditions, high temperatures should mainly be in the 70s
(with 60s in the Poconos).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday, low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will begin to
move further east into the North Atlantic. At the same time, high
pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore on
Tuesday. Aloft, the area will be situated under northwest flow in
wake of exiting upper trough. All in all, a tranquil weather period
is in store with mostly clear skies, light winds and dry weather.

By Tuesday night and through the middle of the week, our attention
will turn to our next weather system which will take aim at the
area. Global and ensemble guidance both feature a deep upper trough
moving into the Great Lakes/Northeast region around the middle of
the week with a potential coastal low developing before moving up
towards New England. This would indicate another period of unsettled
weather with periods of rain starting as early as Tuesday night,
and more so on Wednesday and Thursday. Still quite a ways out from
this potential, so have generally stuck with NBM guidance and capped
rain chances at chance (~30-50%).

In terms of temperatures, we'll encounter temperatures around
average on Monday, before dipping below average for Tuesday through
Thursday as the area remains situated within the deep upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...A lull in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon before another round of storms may arrive late
afternoon and early evening. Second round will mainly impact
all terminals except ABE. Skies will be mostly clear, but a low
scattered deck may cause brief moments of MVFR/IFR conditions
right over the terminals. Generally S to SSE flow less than 10
kts for the rest of the afternoon, but stronger gusts in
thunderstorms.

Tonight...Any showers/storms diminish through the evening with
with the potential for low cigs and low visbys once again due to
stratus, mist and fog. Low MVFR or IFR appears likely. More
showers and storms could move in late. S to SW winds around 5
knots. Low confidence.

Saturday...Sub VFR conditions possible early in the morning with
showers and storms around. Otherwise, primarily VFR expected.
Isolated to showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon afternoon
and early evening. Winds WSW around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20
kts. Low confidence on showers and storms in the morning;
moderate confidence otherwise.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. Winds W to WNW 10 kts or less.

Sunday through Tuesday...VFR. Gusty winds up to 25-30 kt possible on
Sunday. Otherwise, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub SCA except storms tonight into early Saturday
morning could produce locally strong winds.

A few isolated showers and storms possible Saturday afternoon.
SW winds gust to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon, but no
headlines expected.

Outlook...

Saturday night...No marine headlines expected.

Sunday through Sunday night...SCA conditions possible due to wind
gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for northwestern Burlington and lower
Bucks Counties has been extended until 8 AM Saturday. Minor
coastal flooding is expected with the early morning high tide
this morning and on Saturday. It's possible minor coastal
flooding may occur on Sunday as well, where further extensions
may be needed.

For areas of the lower tidal Delaware River near Philadelphia
may encounter spotty minor coastal flooding through Saturday,
but should fall short of advisory levels.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
SHORT TERM...DeSilva
LONG TERM...DeSilva
AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
210 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Dennisville         39.17N 74.81W
05/16/2025                   Cape May           NJ   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Wires down on Gravel Hole Road and Holly
            Glen Lane. Wires sparking. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
212 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Monroe Twp              39.69N 75.03W
05/16/2025                   Gloucester         NJ   911 Call Center

            Trees and wires down throughout the area.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

ZC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
214 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Washington Twp          39.76N 75.10W
05/16/2025                   Gloucester         NJ   911 Call Center

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

ZC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
215 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Hail             Avalon                  39.10N 74.72W
05/16/2025  E1.75 Inch       Cape May           NJ   Amateur Radio

            Hail up to the size of golf ball. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

NG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
241 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Hail             1 SE Millsboro          38.58N 75.30W
05/16/2025  M1.75 Inch       Sussex             DE   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Hoeflich

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
253 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Marshallton       39.97N 75.67W
05/16/2025                   Chester            PA   Other Federal

            Downington (DWNP1) went into flood stage.

&&

Hoeflich