Wind Advisory 5, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1257 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will change to snow today as a strong surface low pulls a
cold front across the region. The ridges will see windy
conditions with snow. Snow will continue at times through Monday
before dry weather returns Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Fog overnight
- Localized flooding possible
- Rain changing to snow from W-E today behind a cold front
- High Wind Watch continues for the PA ridges
- Winter Weather Advisory the Laurel Highlands and WV ridges
- Blizzard warning for eastern Tucker and Preston counties

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Rain will continue to overspread the region tonight. Main part
of the forecast is to try and pin point axis of heaviest
rainfall and how quickly higher QPF will be reached. 00Z HREF
data is focusing the axis over portions of southeast Ohio
northeastward into western PA north and west of Pittsburgh.
Probs for >1 inch of rain are 80 to 90% within this axis. This
area would have the highest potential for flooding. Still
dealing with some dense fog, but it is becoming much more
isolated as the rain drives northward. Expect visibilities to
improve at these locations during the overnight hours.

Impressive surface low will move from southwest PA,
northeastward into upstate New York this morning. As the low
streaks northeastward it will drive a surface cold front through
the region, which should clear to the east by early afternoon.
Widespread rain will continue through much of the morning,
although rates will taper off as the low pulls further away.
Probabilities for > 0.25 inches this morning generally drop
below 50% south of I-80.

As colder air overspreads the region behind the front, rain will
change to snow beginning late this morning over the western
edge of the forecast area, with all of the region expected to
change over as the afternoon progresses. Most of the
accumulations post change over are expected over the higher
elevations where probabilities for > 3 inches range from
40-70%. Outside of the ridges, accumulations are expected to
remain generally less than one-half inch this afternoon.

In addition to the change over to snow, a tight surface
pressure gradient, combining with cold air advection which will
work to bring stronger winds aloft down to the surface, will
produce gusty winds Sunday afternoon. The strongest gusts will
be over the higher elevations where probs for gusts > 40mph
range from 50 to 100%. The focus of the strongest gusts will be
over eastern Tucker county where probs for gusts > 50 mph are
close to 70%.

The cold air advection will also allow for falling temperatures
across the area after FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow showers continue into Monday
- Winds will weaken Monday afternoon
- Much colder Monday
- Dry and cold Tuesday
------------------------------------------------------------------

Snow is expected to continue as the shortwave trough axis
tracks across the region tonight into Monday. Advisory criteria
snowfall of 4-6 inches remains likely across the Laurel
Highlands, and 5-9 inches across eastern Tucker and Preston
counties. With moisture in the dendritic layer, steep lapse
rates, and orographic lift. With warning criteria snow and wind
gusts of 60 mph or greater, Blizzard Warning remains for
eastern Tucker and Preston counties in WV, and a Winter Weather
Advisory for the PA Laurels. Elsewhere generally 1 to 3 inches
of snow is expected from the changeover on Sunday through
Monday with the higher amounts over the I-80 corridor due to
lake enhancement in NW flow.

The snow should gradually taper of on Monday as surface high
pressure begins to build in, and the wind backs to the W and SW.
The high should maintain the dry weather through Tuesday.

Much colder temperatures will move across the region Monday and
Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures are progged from -17 to -21 deg C.
This should result in overnight lows in the single digits to
the teens Monday night, with daytime high in the upper teens to
the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold weather continues through Saturday
- Snow chances increase Wednesday and Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate an upper low will persist across the
northern Plains through mid week, before tracking eastward
Wednesday and Thursday. Snow chances will increase Wednesday and
Thursday as this low approaches, and as a southern stream
surface low tracks across the southern CONUS. Uncertainty exists
in the northern extent of any snow from this low, though better
chances for snow are expected Thursday as the upper low crosses.

Generally dry weather returns Friday and Saturday as the low
begins to shift east, and surface high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog is expected to dissipate from south to north over the next
1-2 hours as a heavy band of rain enters the region.

With warm air aloft and complete low-lvl saturation, confidence
is high for IFR cigs will continue for a large portion of the
TAF sites through dawn. Degradation begins near MGW where dry
air is noted on model soundings. This dry air could help push
MGW back up towards VFR/MVFR although the degree of cloud
erosion remains low confidence at this time.

LLWS concerns begin for sites east and south of PIT around 09Z
as a low- level jet noses into the eastern portions of the
region. LLWS begins to degrade between 13-15z as the cold front
transits the region and kicks off SFC gusts. Winds are expected
to be elevated with most terminals sporting westerly winds with
gusts between 25-30 knots.

As the cold front clears, CIGs are expected to lift by 18z
Sunday. The cold front will also bring the return of snow to
area terminals, which is expected to linger through the
remainder of the 24hr TAF period.

Outlook...
Dry air begins to filter in Monday afternoon tapering snow and
beginning to scatter clouds. Some scattered lake-effect snow
showers may create intermittent MVFR conditions at FKL and DUJ
during the first half of the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ020-021-029-031-
     073>076.
     High Wind Watch from 9 AM EST this morning through Monday
     afternoon for PAZ074-076-078.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST
     Monday for PAZ074-076.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST
     Monday for WVZ510-511-513.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Monday
     for WVZ512-514.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WM/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan/AK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

WVZ512-514-162100-
Eastern Preston-Eastern Tucker-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Blizzard Warning.

Strong wind and heavy snow will result in blizzard conditions late
Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ510-511-513-162100-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Western Tucker-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

Rain will change to snow Sunday, and continue into Monday. 3 to 6
inches of snow is expected, along with wind gusts around 40 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509-162100-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-
Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

1 to 2 inches of snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday. In
addition, wind could gust to 40 mph at times. This, combined with
falling temperatures, could create hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ007-008-013>015-022-077-162100-
Mercer-Venango-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Armstrong-Indiana-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

1 to 3 inches of snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday. In
addition, wind could gust to 40 mph at times. This, combined with
falling temperatures, could create hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ009-016-162100-
Forest-Jefferson PA-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

1 to 3 inches of snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday. In
addition, wind could gust to 40 mph at times. This, combined with
falling temperatures, could create hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ074-076-162100-
Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

4 to 6 inches of snow are expected Sunday afternoon into Monday. Wind
gusts from 55 to 60 mph are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ078-162100-
Higher Elevations of Indiana-
359 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

1 to 3 inches of snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday. In
addition, wind could gust from 55 to 60 mph at times. This, combined
with falling temperatures, could create hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WM