Tornado Warning 42, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1252 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM for gusts of
  40-50 mph.

- All modes of significant severe weather are expected with tonight's
  storms, large hail (2+ inches), damaging winds of 70-80+ mph,
  and significant tornadoes (EF2+).

- Saturday maintains a severe threat during the morning into the
  early afternoon. All modes of severe remain possible. This is
  mainly across western KY and southwest IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

A strong, negatively tilted 500mb trof will move through the upper
midwest this evening and tonight. A strong 978-976mb sfc low will
track through eastern NE into MN this evening and tonight. We are
warm sectored today throughout the day w/a dry line to our west.
Windy conditions today ahead of this system with gusts of 40-50 mph.
A Wind Advisory is in effect through 4am.

Very concerning situation unfolding tonight with all modes of
significant severe possible. Models are setting up further west and
timing has slowed a little. Dew points are still forecast to surge
northward from southern AR over the next several hours and have a 70-
90% chance of reaching or exceeding 60 degrees. SBCAPE is still
around 1,000-2,000 J/kg. 0-1 km SRH is rather high at around 300+
m2/s2, and 0-3 km SRH is 600+ m2/s2. STP in the HRRR is 7-8. Bulk
shear is 60+ kts. Mid level lapse rates are still rather steep at
7.5-8 degC. Models are still showing a broken line of storms moving
through which means both linear dynamics and supercells are
possible. All hazards are possible wtih 70-80+ mph damaging winds,
large hail (2+ inches), and significant tornadoes (EF2+) some of
which could be long track. These storms will also be moving rather
quickly at around 60-70 mph. Storms are expected to weaken some as
they move further east late tonight as dewpoints drop off and
instability decreases.

How tonight evolves will determine how tomorrow plays out. A
secondary system comes up from the south tomorrow and brings storms
to eastern portions of the area (mainly the KY pennyrile and
southwest IN). The best instability is in the morning to early
afternoon with about 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE which is when we
could see severe storms (SPC slight risk). There is also the
possibility for training storms. Some areas could see 1-2" of rain
with flash flooding possible and we are in a slight (level 2 of 4)
for the excessive rainfall outlook.

Behind the cold front with this system highs will fall back into the
50s for Sunday. Upper level ridging builds in early next week and
temperatures then moderate back into the 60s and 70s. Another trof
and sfc low come through on Wednesday bringing more storms to the
area along with a cold front Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A line of severe storms produced a 67kt gust at KCGI in the last
hour and that line will continue eastward overnight. Gusts over
50kts will be possible with brief IFR visibilities likely. South
winds will gust 35-45kts ahead of the line overnight. Another
round of showers and storms will spread northward across the
region mainly in the afternoon with more MVFR and even IFR
conditions possible. Showers could linger into the evening with
MVFR conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /5 AM EDT/ early this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
448 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
448 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 /548 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph are forecast this afternoon
and evening. Refer to the Wind Advisory for additional details.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight
with the potential for significant severe weather. Hazards
include damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, tornadoes, and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, some of which
may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. This threat is primarily across west Kentucky and
southwest Indiana. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding
across west Kentucky on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters please report any severe weather or damage to the
National Weather Service or local authorities.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
307 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 AM     Hail             Princeton               38.36N 87.57W
03/15/2025  M1.75 Inch       Gibson             IN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Sturgis           37.54N 87.95W
03/15/2025  M60 MPH          Union              KY   AWOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
319 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 AM     Hail             Lone Oak                37.04N 88.67W
03/15/2025  M1.00 Inch       McCracken          KY   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
321 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Newburgh                37.95N 87.40W
03/15/2025  M67 MPH          Warrick            IN   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
340 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     Hail             Ledbetter               37.05N 88.50W
03/15/2025  M1.75 Inch       Livingston         KY   Public

            Public photo of hail 1.75 inches near
            Ledbetter.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
344 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     Hail             Clay                    37.48N 87.82W
03/15/2025  M1.00 Inch       Webster            KY   Trained Spotter

            Thirty to fourty-five seconds of quarter
            size hail in Clay.

&&