Tornado Warning 143, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1238 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across portions
  of the area. Storms should weaken as they move east. All
  hazards are possible.

- Strong to severe storms are possible again tomorrow afternoon
  and evening across portions of the area. All hazards are
  possible.

- Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Aloft there is a digging trof across the Rockies with a leading
closed low over the northern Plains with a secondary embedded trof
over Utah moving towards the Four Corners region. Across our area we
have a warm front lifting north today and even though we have warm
air advection in place, we should stay mainly dry this afternoon and
evening. Later today out west storms will develop and grow into
one or more linear segments, particularly over eastern KS,
eastern OK, and western MO. Models have these storms moving
east and will eventually move into SEMO around midnight. As this
line moves east storms should weaken, particularly as they
cross the Mississippi River. However in SEMO there will still be
around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE, mid level lapse rates are
initially 6.5-7 degC/km but they quickly fall off after 06Z,
50-60 kts of bulk shear, and upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints.
Given these conditions, all severe hazards are possible: large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado (possibly
embedded in the line).

What transpires tomorrow in regards to storms and severe threat is
very conditional upon what happens tonight into tomorrow morning,
how we recover tomorrow, and what remaining outflow boundaries are
around the area. Right now, most of the models currently support
clearing behind the line that moves through tonight and early
tomorrow, and so we may see a dry period tomorrow morning. This
would allow us to destabilize and set the scene for round two
tomorrow afternoon. Strengthening mid level and upper level flow
with help initiate convection along with the trof aloft and at the
sfc passing through. Around 18Z tomorrow we have 1,500-3,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE, mid level lapse rates don't look quite as steep, but low
level 0-3km lapse rates are much better, around 7.5 degC/km, and 50-
60 kts of bulk shear. Once again all severe hazards will be
possible: large hail, damaging winds, and possibly stronger
tornadoes (there is a 10% hatched area across the KY Purchase
and Pennyrile regions).

Due to multiple rounds of convection there could be some localized
flash flooding concerns. All told, 1-3 inches of rain is possible
with lower amounts down south and higher amounts up north in
southern IL. The front will be through the area by Tuesday night
with cooler temperatures for mid to late week. There could be a
brief shower or two Wednesday night as we sit in cyclonic flow on
the southwest edge of a trof aloft. Rain chances then return for the
weekend thanks to some localized disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are moving through the
region this morning. SHRA and embedded TSRA will be possible for
the terminals with reductions in cigs and visby. Expecting a
lull in activity later this morning before additional scattered
SHRA/TSRA develops by the afternoon with the threat of severe
storms a possibility. This activity will be east of EVV/OWB by
00z with clearing expected afterwards.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...AD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
302 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 /402 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Higher coverage of thunderstorms are expected tonight with some
storms becoming strong to severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and
an isolated tornado are the main hazards tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are again expected on Tuesday with severe storms
likely. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain
possible with any severe storms. While the greater threat of
severe weather is in western Kentucky, the entire area is under a
risk for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight and again on Tuesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service PADUCAH KY
1153 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-200600-
Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-
Stoddard-
Including the cities of Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau,
Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff,
and Bloomfield
1153 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...Risk for a few severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes...

A broken line of storms is moving steadily east across southeast
Missouri. As of 1151 pm the strongest cells are north of Sam Baker
State Park moving northeast. Thunderstorms across Carter, Ripley
and Wayne are of moderate intensity and do not look to be bringing
down the strongest wind potential. The highest risk for severe
wind or an isolated tornado through 1 am looks to bve acdross
parts of northern Bollinger, Cape Girardeau and Perry Counties in
Missouri - although it can't be completely ruled out anywhere
along this line. Continue to monitor for updates and possible
warnings.

JGG