Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues this afternoon with heat indices over
  100.

- Showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening with
  the possibility of heavy downpours and downbursts.

- Near normal temps and drier weather Wednesday through the
  weekend, then slightly below normal temps to start off next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A Heat Advisory is still in effect this afternoon for continued heat
indices of 100-115. Upper level ridging is breaking down this
afternoon with the passage of a shortwave aloft. This will bring a
cold front through the area this afternoon and evening from north to
south. There is a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this
afternoon with PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9. This means there could be heavy
downpours at times within these storms. SPC has us in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather today for downburst potential. Current
mesoanalysis supports 3,500 to 4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area,
with little to no bulk shear, and low level lapse rates of around
8.5 degC/km along with the presence of inverted V soundings. This
all suggests the potential for strong winds via downbursts of
collapsing pulse storms.

Behind the front expect near normal temperatures through Sunday and
drier conditions. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through
Sunday. Another cold front comes through late Saturday night into
Sunday and brings even cooler temperatures to start off the week.
Highs will be in the upper 70 to lower 80s with overnight lows in
the 50s!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Still waiting on the afternoon cu field to develop at around 5k
ft. Later this afternoon/evening and into the early overnight
spotty storms are expected to start popping up across portions
of the area. These storms may affect the terminals at times with
gusty winds and low vsby due to heavy rain. The cloud deck from
these storms may be MVFR for several hours. Winds will continue
to be light and variable today and overnight, and then will
turn to the north overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
223 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 /323 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values as high as 115 is forecast across the entire
region this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast in the
afternoon. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and cloud to ground
lightning can be expected with any storms. A few storms may become
severe with locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday; however, severe
weather is not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any damaging winds or flooding
this afternoon and evening.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Cape Girardeau    37.30N 89.53W
08/19/2025  E60 MPH          Cape Girardeau     MO   Trained Spotter

            Two reports of estimated gusts to around 60
            mph in Cape Girardeau.

&&

JGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
236 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     Hail             Van Buren               37.01N 91.01W
08/19/2025  M1.00 Inch       Carter             MO   Emergency Mngr

            50-55 mph wind gusts also reported.

&&

RST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
238 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 N Cape Girardeau      37.38N 89.56W
08/19/2025                   Cape Girardeau     MO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Large amount of corn blown over due to
            strong winds near intersection of CR 638 and
            618.

&&

SP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Poplar Bluff      36.75N 90.41W
08/19/2025                   Butler             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Garage door blown in near Home Depot.

&&

SP