Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major severe storm outbreak remains expected later this
  afternoon through evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and
  tornadoes will all be possible.

- Thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday through
  Saturday. Severe storms remain possible Wednesday into
  Wednesday night and flooding is increasingly likely in the
  days following due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Our potential for severe storms remains unchanged as this major
system makes entry and passage later this afternoon and evening.
Shear really picks up best after 21z, which is when moisture
return and instability is peaking just as the cold front makes
entry. All the CAMs have some form or fashion of a couple line
segments taking shape and moving over the area with likely
damaging winds, large hail, and potentially large/long-tracked
tornadoes. It looks like with time the system evolves into a
line/LEWP as the evening wears on, with embedded circulations
remaining a concern. And while some modeling (NAM for ex)
lingers it after midnight, most modeling suggests the worst of
it is past by then.

After a brief reprieve for a work week starting recovery, we
fire back up again by mid week. Wednesday into Wednesday night
still looks like the best time frame for our next potentially
major severe weather outbreak, with our entire region under a
30% Enhanced outlook. All modes severe will again be in play.

The other component that comes into greater focus on the back
half of the week is heavy rain and flooding potential. The
models have been consistently signalling numerous rounds of
showers/storms producing multiple inches of rainfall for the
area in the Wednesday-Saturday time frame. Projected storm
totals of 4-8" are not out of the question, and this will lead
to river and flash flooding issues. An ESF transitioning to a
Flood Watch looks to be soon forthcoming...as that message will
without doubt be amplified in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A line of severe thunderstorms with 50kts of wind will impact
KPAH, and possibly KOWB and KEVV in the next few hours. Light
rain may linger for a few hours behind the line, then MVFR
ceilings may overspread the area. Northern sites are most likely
to get the MVFR ceilings. The lower ceilings could linger
through much of the day. The main wind shift to northwest will
lag 3 or 4 hours behind the storms. Gusts 15-20kts will be
possible behind the front through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 /348 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A major severe weather event is expected, and tornado watches are
in effect, refer to the watch for details. Tornadoes, some strong
and long track, very large hail in excess of 2 inches in
diameter, and damaging winds are all possible this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms reenter the forecast Wednesday through Saturday,
including the possibility of severe storms Wednesday into
Wednesday night. In addition, a significant heavy rainfall and
flooding scenario is becoming more likely due to several rounds of
heavy rainfall anticipated Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

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