Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
404 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels continues enhanced
  fire danger and red flag conditions across southeast
  MO/southwest IL, while areas outside of the red flag warning
  also have heightened fire danger with slightly higher rh.

- Very strong winds with gusts of 35-50 mph continues with a
  wind advisory for the entire Quad State region.

- Thunderstorm chances are slight, but if one occurs, a strong
  to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds will be
  the primary hazard, though all modes could be in play.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Slightly earlier than anticipated convection north/west of STL
is otherwise on track with modeled development. We continue with
a small risk of severe here this afternoon into the evening. If
the system can get updrafts going along/ahead of the approaching
cold front, given the high shear environ., it won't take much to
produce a damaging wind gust; anything that does manage to get
going/organized may offer the trifecta of svr modes to the
playing field.

Fropa completes by mid evening and storm/svr chances end with
its passage. Wrap-around cold air may turnover some drops to
flakes before pcpn winds down altogether late tonight-early
tmrw. High winds outside of storms, with gradient gust potential
up to 50 mph, will likewise diminish a little bit off their
peaks but maintain a brisk/gusty wind even into tmrw as they
turn more wly, then nwly.

Once the cooler/drier air completes its overtake of the column,
we'll finish out the week with a dry/seasonally chilly feel.
Thursday's upper 40s to lower 50s will actually feel bitingly
colder though due to the still brisk winds, while 50s and some
60s become more commonplace heading into the weekend.

Next pcpn chances still look to be incoming by late weekend,
including storm chances that enter the picture on its back half.
Up to an inch of rainfall looks possible at this writing by the
time it draws to an end late Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Strong/gusty south winds will veer to the southwest upon the
approach of a storm system this evening. Its passage by mid to
late evening will shift winds to the west, then northwest
overnight. Overall magnitude will lessen some with time,
including gusts, but both maintain brisk strength into tmrw's
forecast. A period of restricted bases is anticipated to
continue and again magnify tonight, while there may be a brief
evening period of scattering or breaks to Visual Flight Rules at
times. Associated vicinity/small pop mentions may accompany the
front's approach/passage, offering further restrictions as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075-076-
     080>082-084>086-088-089-092-093.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-
     087-098-100-106>112-114.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 /425 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Tornado watch is in effect for southwest Indiana, southeast
Illinois, and western Kentucky along and east of the Lakes. In and
close to the watch area, there is a risk for severe storms this
afternoon into evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, but
all modes of severe weather are possible, should a storm develop.

A wind advisory remains in effect, refer to the advisory for
specifics.

Heightened fire danger continues throughout the region, but is
highest in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, where a Red
Flag warning remains in effect. Refer to the warning for more
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Fire danger will remain heightened Thursday, especially across
southeast Missouri, where it will be drier.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast again Sunday and strong storms
cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.