Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  from late this afternoon through late tonight. A few showers
  will linger into the day Thursday in the southern KY
  Pennyrile.

- A few of the storms could become strong to severe tonight,
  with damaging winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rain
  may also cause isolated flooding issues, mainly across
  southeast Illinois into western Kentucky.

- Another extended period of dry and seasonably warm conditions
  are forecast from Friday through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

A surface cold front is currently pushing through the region
from NW to SE, and convection has begun to develop along a lone
from POF to CIR to PAH. Expecting this activity to grow upscale,
with additional development through the late afternoon. Some
sunshine alone the KY/TN border has allow for modest
destabilization to form, and combined with 00-06 km shear values
around 30 kts, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds cannot
be ruled out.

The other concern tonight will be for storms training along the
frontal boundary, especially overnight as 850 mb LLJ winds
increase parallel to the boundary. Overall, expecting a broad
brush of 0.25-0.50" across the region, with a narrow corridors
of 0.75-1.5" across SE Illinois through W Kentucky. A few
isolated pockets of 2-3" cannot be rule out here. Given the soil
remains quite parched from our recent drought conditions, the
overall flood risk still appears too low to justify a Flood
Watch. However, a isolated flooding problems in low-lying and
poorly- drained locations are possible.

By Thursday morning, the front will still be slowly pushing
towards the southeast part of the forecast area, and lingering
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southern
KY Pennyrile. Otherwise, skies will slowly clear as northerly
winds draw much drier air into the region. The rest of the
forecast period looks quiet, as surface high pressure and
ridging become established over the central CONUS. Temperatures
will be near normal values Thursday and Friday, but will warm to
5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday through the first half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Ongoing MVFR/IFR stratus will see rising bases towards low VFR
this afternoon. However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along a passing cold front, which
will create isolated periods of heavy thunderstorm activity
through early tonight. Lingering rain showers will diminish by
the predawn hours, but IFR/MVFR low stratus (and perhaps some
fog at PAH and CGI) will linger through mid-morning Thursday.
Winds will be light from the N or variable through the overnight
hours around 3-6 kts, increasing from the north at 6-10 kts
after 15z Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 NE Penermon           36.82N 89.78W
09/24/2025                   Stoddard           MO   Broadcast Media

            Tropical funnel cloud briefly occurred.

&&

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

MOZ110>112-114-242130-
Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
Including the cities of Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston,
and New Madrid
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...Funnel Clouds Possible This Afternoon in the Missouri Bootheel
Region...

There have been reports of tropical funnel clouds today. These
funnels are developing underneath a few showers that are moving
across the area. Underneath these showers...spinning columns of
air that look like tornadoes may continue to develop. These
funnels usually are very brief and rarely touch the ground. If
these funnels do touch down...they most likely will not cause
damage to life or property.

These kinds of funnel clouds are due to cool air aloft...warm
moist air near the ground...and are usually in association with a
strong area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Due to little or no wind shear...they are usually weak and very
brief.

DWS

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