Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
152 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing storms up north causing flash flooding concerns
  through this evening. Limited severe threat at this time.

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect today for portions of the area
  for the 4th consecutive day of heat indices of 105+. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect for most of the rest of the area today
  for heat indices of 103 to 107.

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through next week.
  Next week heat indices will be 105+ nearly every day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Storms have already kicked off up north late this morning and are
showing signs of training and back building along a boundary present
up there. This is causing flash flooding issues due to the high
PWATs leading to heavy rainfall. So far there are no severe concerns
despite the 3,000 J/kg of CAPE present. This trend is expected to
continue until storms die off after sunset.

An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for portions of the area
through this evening due to having 4 consecutive days of heat
indices of 105+. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the rest
of the area through this evening as well with heat indices of 103 to
107. Tomorrow will need another Extreme Heat Warning as heat indices
continue to be 105+, but due to the ongoing flooding will punt to
the evening shift to issue the headline.

Models have continued to support a drier solution for tomorrow
before northwest flow aloft increases by Monday and a cold front is
pushed into the area. This will serve as a focus for more afternoon
thunderstorm activity Monday. Things start to dry out Tuesday onward
with prolonged dangerous heat being the main concern as the upper
ridge builds. Heat indices look to be up to around 110 each day,
possibly up to 115. More heat headlines will likely be needed next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

More showers and storms around the area this afternoon that will
affect some of the terminals. Heavy downpours with reduction in
vsbys, frequent lightning, and gusts to around 20-30 kts are
possible. Otherwise there is a low level scattered cumulus deck
across the rest of the area. Storms should end after sunset.
Winds are out of the southwest at around 10kts this afternoon
and go light and variable overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>091-094.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ092-
     093.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ005-007-
     010>022.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>004-006-008-009.

&&

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 /500 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices will reach 103-110 throughout the area today. Please
refer to the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory for details.

A complex of thunderstorms may move southeast through the
Evansville Tri State this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
and even large hail will be possible. Elsewhere, more scattered
storms will pose a lesser gusty wind threat. All storms will
produce torrential rainfall that will be capable of overwhelming
local drainages. Areas that have received recent heavy rainfall
will be at an increased risk for most substantial flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Afternoon heat indices are likely to reach at least 105 throughout
the region each day. Heat related illnesses will likely increase
with each passing day of the heatwave.

Thunderstorms may provide some relief from the heat Sunday and
Monday, mainly over the Evansville Tri State and the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. Torrential rain, lightning, and gusty
winds will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation cannot be ruled out over the Evansville Tri
State this afternoon and evening.

DRS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Evansville         37.96N 87.57W
07/19/2025                   Vanderburgh        IN   Broadcast Media

            Tree down blocking the right lane of
            Veterans Memorial Parkway. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

DWS