Wind Advisory 5, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
101 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions each
  afternoon.

- High winds along with critical to extreme fire weather
  conditions on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Today's fire weather conditions will be concentrated mainly in
northwest Oklahoma (elevated to near critical) with some additional
areas of elevated in western north Texas / southwest Oklahoma. Both
areas will be primarily RH driven, though gusty winds will be a
secondary component in northwest Oklahoma as well. With mainly
southerly winds, our forecast will stick fairly close to ensemble
means. Roger Mills has been added to the Red Flag Warning.

Outside of fire weather, expect another warm day with highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s, followed by lows tonight mainly in the 50s
and upper 40s. Winds will stay somewhat breezy through the night,
then start increasing before daybreak as the next system approaches.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

For Friday, we continue with a high confidence forecast for strong
to severe winds and critical to extreme fire danger across most of
our forecast area.

A deep upper low system (with an associated surface low showing an
impressive 975mb center in Kansas) will bring strong synoptically
driven winds to the entire forecast area. With westerly 850mb flow
and mostly clear skies, enhanced mixing is likely. The 850mb jet
maximum is forecast to track through southwest Oklahoma up through
central Oklahoma through the afternoon. At the same time a front
will push into northwest Oklahoma Friday afternoon with attendant
cloud cover and gradually veering winds.

There are several points to consider with this forecast:

 - The westerly downslope flow pattern means that wind speeds will
likely outperform global model forecasts. The strongest winds are
expected to coincide with the 850mb jet maximum, peaking around noon
in southwest Oklahoma. Our forecast grids are largely based off of
NBM 75th percentile. Additionally, localized areas of lower RH
values are likely. CAMs suggest single digit RH values will be
possible across western north Texas and lower teens across most of
the rest of the forecast area. Here, our grids reflect the NBM 10th
percentile (mainly in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas).

 - 850mb flow peaks late morning on Friday, then starts moving off
east. This may help reduce the overlap between peak winds and
minimum RH.

 - Two fronts are forecast to move through. The first is a very dry
Pacific front, clearing most of the forecast area early on Friday.
This will leave us with highs 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Thursday
(especially across western Oklahoma). Unfortunately, any effect on
RH looks to be offset by how dry the incoming airmass is. The second
front nudges into northwest Oklahoma in the afternoon, and while it
doesn't have a big effect on temperatures, it does look to bring
some cloud cover (which will help inhibit mixing) and higher
dewpoints. On the other hand, this front comes with a wind shift as
well, which will impact any ongoing fires.

 - ERCs across northern Oklahoma will be problematic (70-80th
percentile). Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas are expected
to be closer to the 50-70th percentile. Central and south central
Oklahoma remain below the 50th percentile.

Overall, expect to see extremes in winds, RHs, and ERCs, though the
spatial and temporal alignment of these three may be offset enough
to offer some small mitigation of impacts. That said, compositing
these together still yields widespread extreme RFTIs on Friday.

Regarding the high wind potential, by the numbers NBM probabilities
are showing: 40-60% chance for severe (58+ mph) gusts over much of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas, including the western side
of the OKC metro (though with lesser probabilities across parts of
northwest Oklahoma); and 70-90% probabilities in an area outlined by
Hobart to Lawton to Electra, TX to Altus. Advisory level gusts (40+
mph) are virtually guaranteed everywhere but southeast Oklahoma (and
there the probabilities are 60+%).

Saturday will be cooler with highs in the 60s. Low RH values will
drive elevated fire weather concerns across western Oklahoma and
parts of western north Texas.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Cooler temperatures will continue through Sunday (highs in the 60s)
with northerly winds. Areas of elevated fire weather will again be
possible on Sunday.

By Monday, southerly surface flow is forecast to return, bringing
back highs in the 70s and 80s. Models depict a tightening pressure
gradient yielding breezy winds Monday and Tuesday. Fire weather will
ramp back up into the near critical to critical range.

Sometime mid week a cold front should move through, though models
disagree on when (synoptic spread is high at this range).

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Low level wind shear is expected tonight as a strong low level jet
ramps up, especially after midnight. Very strong winds are
expected by mid to late morning tomorrow, with gusts near or over
50 knots possible in some locations. This could lead to blowing
dust, but this is most likely to occur tomorrow afternoon (just
after this TAF period).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  69  45  61 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         51  69  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  72  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           47  69  37  60 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  72  44  60 /   0  10   0   0
Durant OK         60  75  52  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014.

     Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     OKZ004>030-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08